Florida Gulf Coast

Sunday, December 3rd, 2023
1:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN+

The Bearcats (6-0, KenPom #37) will have their final tune-up before the Crosstown Shootout against Florida Gulf Coast University (2-6, KenPom #229).

The Eagles should come to Clifton in high spirits after winning their first road game of the season at Florida International on Wednesday, a 68-65 triumph in what was also FGCU's first victory over a D1 opponent this season.

7 seasons removed from their last NCAA tournament appearance, they are led by second-year head coach Patrick Chambers who guided the Eagles to a 17-15 record in Year 1.

FGCU does return 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year's team with their top contributors being 5th-year 6'1 guard Isaiah Thompson (14 ppg, 2.1 apg), 4th-year 6'7 forward Zach Anderson (12 ppg, 5.3 rpg), and 4th-year 6'8 forward Keeshawn Kellman (10.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg).

This year's FGCU team has been playing considerably slow so far (#344 in KenPom Adjusted Tempo) and has not defended the 3-point line well (opponents shooting 37.9%).

The Bearcats are aiming for their first 7-0 start since the 17/18 season.

FGCU is yet another relatively small team. Their frontline starters are 6'8 and 6'7 with limited depth behind them, and all of their wings/guards are 6'3 and under. This is another game where we should be able to play Skillings at the 4 without issue.

Their offense runs through Isaiah Thompson, and many of his points come from the stripe where he shoots an incredible 90% on nearly 7 attempts per game. He's been a turnover machine of late, coughing it up 15 times in the last 3 games. They struggle to take care of the ball as a team, ranking #296 nationally. They get a lot of second chance opportunities, led by Keeshawn Kellman who grabs one out of every six misses. Overall the offesnse is ranked #114 on Torvik.

FGCU's defense is horrible, coming in at #270. They don't defend well inside or out, and they foul a lot. Rebounding is the only area they are better than average on the defensive end.

We should really only be tested if FGCU get hot from three (as they did against Indiana where they had the lead with under 10 minutes to go), or if we can't keep Thompson off the line (he made 11 free throws in their win over FIU).

Another dominant performance against an overmatched team. Great to see both CJs and Ody find a shooting rhythm.

Indeed, good to see some guys score who haven't been. Surprised Skillings didn't score a little more for consistency, but maybe they were told to let CJ shoot it for a change. The fact that Skillings got 12 rebounds and Bandaogo only 1 is also a surprise. Wasn't rebounding what he does best? We shot 56%, so it wasn't an issue.

I think they can beat Xavier, but seriously it's going to be a different level of challenge in several regards. Not the most experience there, but they are really physical.

sirthought said:

Indeed, good to see some guys score who haven't been. Surprised Skillings didn't score a little more for consistency, but maybe they were told to let CJ shoot it for a change. The fact that Skillings got 12 rebounds and Bandaogo only 1 is also a surprise. Wasn't rebounding what he does best? We shot 56%, so it wasn't an issue.

I think they can beat Xavier, but seriously it's going to be a different level of challenge in several regards. Not the most experience there, but they are really physical.

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It was brought up to Wes in the postgame presser and he didn't seemed concerned by it. He stated that Aziz is behind the rest of the team due to the secret scrimmages and handful of regular season games he has missed.

He definitely seemed to have some persistent positioning issues but hopefully film review and more in-game experience will help.

I'm very impressed by our offensive philosophy this year, and I hope we stick to it as competition gets tougher. Only 19% of our shots this year have come from midrange. Last year it was over 30%. That's a major change. Yesterday we only had 10 midrange attempts, compared to 34 at the rim and 19 threes. Did Wes Miller have an awakening, or will we revert to our old ways in conference play?

That's a good question. I know it's not considered as good of a shot, but I don't dislike a midrange shot if it's truly open. Those desperations twos were what we saw too often last season. Guys just couldn't find a shot.

A lot of teams focus on spacing and ball reversal, which is smart if you can actually do that. Sometimes a good old screen or double screen to get a shooter some space is missing from this offense. I've seen it a little more than last season, but they could lean on it a bit more, as I think it can help with both shooting and being in good rebound position.

Midrange can be an effective shot for a very small group of players. Last year there were only 19 players in the entire country who made over 50% on at least 100 attempts for the season (about 3 per game). And only 4 players made 54%, the threshold for a top 50 effective field goal percentage. Almost everyone is getting less than a point per possession out of that shot, usually way less. It's just not efficient enough to encourage in an offensive scheme. Of course there will be late clock situations when it might be the best look available. But in general, fewer midrange shots means better offense.

sedziobs said:

Midrange can be an effective shot for a very small group of players. Last year there were only 19 players in the entire country who made over 50% on at least 100 attempts for the season (about 3 per game). And only 4 players made 54%, the threshold for a top 50 effective field goal percentage. Almost everyone is getting less than a point per possession out of that shot, usually way less. It's just not efficient enough to encourage in an offensive scheme. Of course there will be late clock situations when it might be the best look available. But in general, fewer midrange shots means better offense.

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I just noticed that we're shooting 43.3% on midrange shots so far, which seems to be a pretty good mark.

Do you think this success is more reflective of poor competition or better shot-making/shot selection?

Queens_NYC said:

I just noticed that we're shooting 43.3% on midrange shots so far, which seems to be a pretty good mark.

Do you think this success is more reflective of poor competition or better shot-making/shot selection?

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Probably competition. We have a few guys hitting 50% or better so far on at least 10 attempts. Simas is making 55% this year vs 41% last year. Jizzle is also at 55%. Vik is making 50% this year vs 40% last year. I'd guess all of them will be under 45% by year's end, then throw in all the guys making under 40% and we'll probably be close to 40% as a team.

Our effective field goal percentage is over 55% so far, #31 in the country. So even our best midrange shooters are pulling that down. 43% as a team is 4% better than last year, but still bad offense.