Merrimack

Tuesday, December 19th, 2023
7:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN+

The Bearcats (8-2, NET #39, KenPom #37) will close out their non-conference schedule in addition to the calendar year with a 3-game homestand - the first game of which will bring Merrimack (5-6, NET #197, KenPom #263) to town.

The Warriors are in their 5th season as a Division 1 program and were picked to finish 4th in the 9-team Northeast Conference (NEC).

They have beaten 3 D1 teams so far this season with their best win coming against UMass Lowell (KenPom #159). Their worst losses have been @Ohio State (76-52) and @Florida (77-57).

The Warriors are led by 2nd-year 6'5 wing Jordan Derkack (16.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.9 apg). The rest of their starting line-up goes 5'10, 6'4, 6'7, & 6'7 - although they do play a 6'11 center 19 minutes/game off the bench.

Merrimack is a poor offensive team (#333 in KenPom AdjO) that struggles to shoot the 3 ball (26.4% on the season). Their two leading scorers are shooting a combined 4-38 (10.5%) from 3 this season despite both being perimeter players.

They are also a poor rebounding team having lost the battle on the boards by 17 to Ohio State and by 24 to Florida.

The Bearcats are 18.5-point favorites.

Merrimack only has one reliable way to score - at the free throw line. Samba Diallo and Jordan Derkack get to the stripe more than 12 times a game and make 80% combined. As a team they get to the line 21 times and make 75% on average. They're also pretty good from midrange, where they shoot 46%. But thanks to terrible three point shooting, rebounding, and ball control, they've only exceeded 1.06 points per possession once this season - against #358 NC A&T.

The defense is a bit better. They do a good job defending inside the arc, where they held Florida and Georgetown under 45%. They also create a lot of turnovers, but they foul a lot and are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, allowing opponents to rebound 37% of their misses. That Georgetown game is an example of what can go wrong against Merrimack - the Hoyas went just 13 of 37 from two and had to rely on 18 offensive rebounds and 42 free throw attempts to pull out a 2 point win.

The defensive key to this game is simple - don't foul. Play off everybody, don't fall for pump fakes, let them shoot their jump shots, and grab the rebound. The one exception is Devon Savage, who shoots 34% on eight 3s per game and has only converted 3 times at the rim all season. Treat him as a shooter, back off everyone else.

On offense, take care of the ball and crash the glass. If the shots are falling we'll blow this team out easily. But if they aren't, we can still produce points by extending possessions and taking advantage of their foul prone defense. This is the kind of game where Skillings can play to his strengths. I'd also like to see a lot of Reynolds so he can get comfortable before conference play.

Frederick and Aziz out tonight with injuries.

Merrimack runs a 2-2-1 matchup on defense, which you normally only see in a full court press. It can be attacked just like a 2-3 though, by getting the ball to the free throw line then looking to the blocks or corners. We've actually done a decent job of that but have the wrong personnel. A lot of the corner looks have been from Skillings and Reed, not our best shooters (as I type this Simas nails a corner three). CJ and Aziz would have feasted on this defense. Too many turnovers though.

Offense is much better so far in the second half, but we have allowed Savage to hit a couple threes. There's no reason to let him shoot. Somebody should be standing on his shooting hip out to 30 ft. Even against terrible teams, we should be executing gameplans.

Reynolds is still very rusty. Timing, awareness, and touch are a work in progress.

Sloppy game that was only salvaged by a solid defensive effort and a 16-2 run down the stretch right before Merrimack salvaged a few meaningless consolation buckets.

Surprised that Skillings played so little in the 2nd half - only 4 minutes.

Mixed bag in this game. On offense, our fourth straight game with an effective field goal percentage under 50% and we turned it over 18 times. But we rebounded 44% of our misses and got to the stripe 19 times. We never figured out what to do against the zone in the first half, but after halftime adjustments we scored 38 points over the final 20 minutes. But for the game we only managed 0.96 points per possession, our lowest since the opener.

The defense didn't require much effort, as Merrimack was out of control. They turned it over or put up wild shots without much pressure several times. Still, our length bothered them and we easily controlled the defensive glass and defended the rim without fouling. I wasn't happy that we didn't play their one shooter any differently, allowing him to go 3 of 6 from deep. Hard to complain too much about surrendering only 0.72 points per possession.

This game showed some clear areas to work on. We need to be better prepared to run offense against a zone. Reynolds needs to learn the offense and get up to speed. And somehow we have to start guarding shooters differently than slashers.