Stetson

Friday, December 22nd, 2023
7:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN+

The Bearcats (9-2, NET #40, KenPom #39) take on their penultimate non-conference opponent of the 23/24 season as they host Stetson University (7-5, NET #236, KenPom #229) this Friday evening.

The Hatters are led by 5th-year head coach Donnie Jones and were picked to finish 3rd in the 12-team ASUN Conference prior to the start of this season (FGCU, who we beat 99-62, was picked to finish 2nd).

Stetson's 4 wins against D1 opponents have all come away from home - with the most notable victory being a 85-82 upset at UCF in late November.

The Hatters feature an explosive scorer in 3rd-year 6'3 guard Jalen Blackmon who averages 22.6 ppg while slashing 47.6%/47.5%/95.7%. He is complemented down low by 3rd-year 6'11 big man Aubin Gateretse who has broken out for 11.4 ppg and 7.6 rpg on 70.1% shooting from the field.

Unlike our last opponent, Merrimack, Stetson ranks much higher offensively (122nd in AdjO) than defensively (322nd in AdjD). They shoot the 3 ball well at a 37.3% clip as a team on fairly high volume (27.3 attempts/game). They are also an elite free throw shooting team (81.8%) but get to the line at an extremely low rate (13.3 attempts/game).

They are not very adept at forcing turnovers either as 5 of their 9 D1 opponents have only given the ball away 7 times or less over their various match-ups.

The Bearcats will have a week-long break after this game before they host Evansville for their 2023 non-conference finale next Friday, 12/29.

Stetson's defense is atrocious, ranking #338. They've conceded less than a point per possession only once this season, when they surrendered 0.97 in their last game against FIU. Four times they've conceded more than 1.2, including a whopping 1.32 against Charlotte. They are worst at forcing turnovers, defensive rebounding, and assist rate. Along with a low foul rate and slow tempo, the stats indicate that they play a soft zone. If that's the case, I'd like to see us apply what we learned in the second half against Merrimack.

The offense is carried by three point shooting. They have top 50 assist and 3pt shooting rates, so they're looking to dish to the perimeter all the time. And they hit at a good clip too, at a top 100 36%. They are #1 in the country in free throw percentage, but as QueensNYC mentioned they don't get to the stripe very often, attempting only 118 total for the season. Still four of their starters (all guards) are shooting 93% or better at the line. Three starters (everyone but the center and the PG) are shooting 39% or better from deep.

Since their big men don't shoot threes, our bigs can back off on defense and let the guard go over all screens. Really our bigs should stay in the paint so guards don't have to help in the lane. It's important that our guards stay out on their wings at all times. Tristan Gross is the only pure shooter, he's only made one rim bucket all year while shooting 39% from three on 28 attempts. Blackmon is a three level scorer, he's exactly 32 of 72 from both inside and outside the arc. We should be running him off the 3pt line, ideally with Newman.

Aziz and CJ Frederick remain questionable for tomorrow.

Rayvon Griffith is offcially redshirting.

Stetson indeed plays a soft zone. We are consistently getting the ball to the paint and have been finding the open corners in the middle of the first half. Good to see Skillings hit a couple.

Defensively we've got Fredricks on Gross, which is good. Fredricks knows how to guard a shooter. And we've got Newman on Blackmon, also good. Blackmon is going to score, we've just got to make him inefficient. H'es got 10 points on 9 shots so far, not too bad.

Not too bad of a half. The defense has been fine. The only really problematic thing was fouling a couple of three point shooters. I'm happy with our scheme though.

On offense our bigs have to make quicker decisions with the ball in the middle of the zone. Vik and Jamille have 5 turnovers already. They shouldn't be dribbling in there at all. When they look to pass, good things are happening. They also need to hit the glass harder. Four offensive rebounds against this team is not good enough.

sedziobs said:

Not too bad of a half. The defense has been fine. The only really problematic thing was fouling a couple of three point shooters. I'm happy with our scheme though.

On offense our bigs have to make quicker decisions with the ball in the middle of the zone. Vik and Jamille have 5 turnovers already. They shouldn't be dribbling in there at all. When they look to pass, good things are happening. They also need to hit the glass harder. Four offensive rebounds against this team is not good enough.

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We also need to get it in to them earlier in the shot clock. Dribbling it around, throwing it inside with 5 seconds on the shot clock and hoping the big bails you out is a recipe for trouble.

We switched to zone against a three point shooting team? Blackmon hits a wide open three right away.

skyblade said:

We also need to get it in to them earlier in the shot clock. Dribbling it around, throwing it inside with 5 seconds on the shot clock and hoping the big bails you out is a recipe for trouble.

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I agree. They've done a better job in the second half, though Stetson is also playing more man defense. Our defense has been worse. We're backing off shooters too much.

Well Skillings busting out on offense certainly wasn't one of my keys to the game. He put up 29 points on only 14 shots with only 1 turnover. He also had a great game on the boards with double digit rebounds. We did a much better job on offense in the second half despite worse three point shooting. Over the final 20 minutes Vik and Jamille only had one turnover between them and we had 12 offensive rebounds. Fredrick ended up with 7 assists - he has a good feel for zone offense.

The defense was terrible in the second half. We seemingly forgot that we were playing a three point shooting team. Part of the problem is we decided to go big, playing Jamille, Vik, and Skillings together. While that helped on the glass, it led to a lot of slow rotations and miscommunications on handoffs and screens. As a result we put Stetson on the line 29 times where they scored 24 points. Blackmon had 10 points on 10 shots at one point in the first half - he scored 22 on his next 12 shots. We gave up 42 second half points.

Jamille showed his shooting touch finally, scoring 14 points on 7 shots. He's still very rusty overall though. He got beat on defense and on the glass repeatedly, and wasn't a very good passer. His only assist was a cross court pass from the short corner - he only looked for his own shot in the lane. Jamille had many opportunities to be a proactive passer when Stetson threw double teams at him in the second half, but usually lobbed it out to the top of the key. Hopefully he does eventually learn the offense.

sedziobs said:

Well Skillings busting out on offense certainly wasn't one of my keys to the game. He put up 29 points on only 14 shots with only 1 turnover. He also had a great game on the boards with double digit rebounds. We did a much better job on offense in the second half despite worse three point shooting. Over the final 20 minutes Vik and Jamille only had one turnover between them and we had 12 offensive rebounds. Fredrick ended up with 7 assists - he has a good feel for zone offense.

The defense was terrible in the second half. We seemingly forgot that we were playing a three point shooting team. Part of the problem is we decided to go big, playing Jamille, Vik, and Skillings together. While that helped on the glass, it led to a lot of slow rotations and miscommunications on handoffs and screens. As a result we put Stetson on the line 29 times where they scored 24 points. Blackmon had 10 points on 10 shots at one point in the first half - he scored 22 on his next 12 shots. We gave up 42 second half points.

Jamille showed his shooting touch finally, scoring 14 points on 7 shots. He's still very rusty overall though. He got beat on defense and on the glass repeatedly, and wasn't a very good passer. His only assist was a cross court pass from the short corner - he only looked for his own shot in the lane. Jamille had many opportunities to be a proactive passer when Stetson threw double teams at him in the second half, but usually lobbed it out to the top of the key. Hopefully he does eventually learn the offense.

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I thought Reynolds had a few more nice passes that didn't result in assists, he's starting to shake the rust off on offense. Still has work to do, but you can see the ability he has.

On defense and especially defensive rebounding he needs to work harder, he let Stetson push him around and get a few rebounds they had no business getting against a guy his size.

It seemed like the combo of Vik and Reynolds was unstoppable on offense, especially with Skillings flying in to clean up misses on the glass, he has great hands, if he touches the ball (even with just one hand) he usually holds onto it. Kind of felt like Wes was content to trade baskets as we had a lead, they couldn't stop us and we couldn't stop them, but we were taking the better/higher percentage shots (not that it really mattered, as Stetson was on fire for a stretch).

It felt like we were in control for almost the entire game, even though Stetson kept it close, it never felt like we in danger of losing. Largely because Stetson didn't have an answer for Lakhin and Reynolds (especially when they played together).

We didn't go very deep tonight, perhaps another change, only 6 guys had 20+ minutes. With the bigs, slowing it down and pounding the paint may be a better style. Ody only got 11 minutes, he was bad though, he has struggled all season so far. Reed 9, thought he played pretty well in them, Jizzle 14.

skyblade said:

It seemed like the combo of Vik and Reynolds was unstoppable on offense, especially with Skillings flying in to clean up misses on the glass, he has great hands, if he touches the ball (even with just one hand) he usually holds onto it. Kind of felt like Wes was content to trade baskets as we had a lead, they couldn't stop us and we couldn't stop them, but we were taking the better/higher percentage shots (not that it really mattered, as Stetson was on fire for a stretch).

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This is something that has worried me since our incoming transfers indicated that Vik will be mostly playing the 4. It's not a bad plan on offense, but we won't be unstoppable against Big12 teams like we were tonight. The defensive problems we showed tonight will also be even more problematic in conference play. Vik was generally lost covering guards and having to communicate on the perimeter. And Jamille hasn't been a very good secondary rim protector. I just can't imagine being a good defensive team with those two on the court together.

sedziobs said:

This is something that has worried me since our incoming transfers indicated that Vik will be mostly playing the 4. It's not a bad plan on offense, but we won't be unstoppable against Big12 teams like we were tonight. The defensive problems we showed tonight will also be even more problematic in conference play. Vik was generally lost covering guards and having to communicate on the perimeter. And Jamille hasn't been a very good secondary rim protector. I just can't imagine being a good defensive team with those two on the court together.

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Yeah, they definitely have work to do on that end. I think they both have the ability though, it's a question of can we figure it out quick enough? Wes said in the post-game that Vik and Reynolds hadn't played together in practice since October until Reynolds got cleared to play, so they've only been learning to play together for about a week.

That said, some of the issues are individual, Reynolds not always boxing out, Vik not communicating or getting a switch wrong and so forth. We need them to figure it out if we are going to be a good team though. Especially with Aziz's injury and Ody being so bad so far this season.

Reynolds and Vik are so much better on offense than Aziz/Ody, that we will probably sacrifice defense for offense at times. It's a matter of making it not too big of a sacrifice.

Last night was the best I can recall Skillings' shot mechanics ever looking.

Still surprised these guys don't get more intimidating physically when they have that advantage. They could be going stronger to the hoop much more often. Thomas and James usually have a few good drives, but they could work to open those lanes, have handoffs to bigs, etc. I think it would be good for this team, as they'd get to the line much more and that can win games when your outside shot isn't falling.

CJ concerns me. His health obviously. Not sure if that is affecting his shot. He does seem to make smart passes. But his role should be huge on this team.