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waterhead

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I am going to try and make some sense out of what to expect this upcoming season although it's hard with so many new pieces and losing our 2 best players (among others). There is a lot of talent and versatility but we will be short on system experience and a tough schedule.

Gonna start at the 5 spot for now.

We lost Sorolla mid season but we return the top 2 at the spot arguably in Vogt and Dou. We also add the option of Rap as a guy we can use when we want to go with 2 more versatile or mobile bigs.

So we have a back to the basket big in Vogt with slow feet who can put the ball in the hole close range and protect the paint fairly well but not the perimeter. He can body up on bigs with size as well. Boxes out well but doesn't chase down as many boards as we would like. Can't shoot outside of about 5 ft.

We have Dou who can leap out of the building and chases boards pretty well (but could box out better) and has a nice stroke from downtown. He can defend the perimeter much better but may not be as good at putting a body on a big with size. Seems to have picked up the system better later in the year. That's a nice one two punch complimentary pair.

Rap is a wildcard with some skills who can let us play in a variety of ways and add some scoring pop or another go to option if other players are struggling. He's basically a 4 who's played some 5 and should mostly play 4 for us. Can shoot and move with the ball but defense seems to be lackluster.

That's about as versatile as you would hope to be at the 5 spot. Offensively and defensively you have most options covered if you need to adjust in game plans.

In addition...if we ever have injury issues or major foul trouble we also have guys to plug in at the 4 who can move someone else to the 5. Eason, Lakhin, and Davenport (if nobody red shirts). Overall we should be in better shape at the 5 this year for all the reasons listed above.
 
waterhead said:
I am going to try and make some sense out of what to expect this upcoming season although it's hard with so many new pieces and losing our 2 best players (among others). There is a lot of talent and versatility but we will be short on system experience and a tough schedule.

Gonna start at the 5 spot for now.

We lost Sorolla mid season but we return the top 2 at the spot arguably in Vogt and Dou. We also add the option of Rap as a guy we can use when we want to go with 2 more versatile or mobile bigs.

So we have a back to the basket big in Vogt with slow feet who can put the ball in the hole close range and protect the paint fairly well but not the perimeter. He can body up on bigs with size as well. Boxes out well but doesn't chase down as many boards as we would like. Can't shoot outside of about 5 ft.

We have Dou who can leap out of the building and chases boards pretty well (but could box out better) and has a nice stroke from downtown. He can defend the perimeter much better but may not be as good at putting a body on a big with size. Seems to have picked up the system better later in the year. That's a nice one two punch complimentary pair.

Rap is a wildcard with some skills who can let us play in a variety of ways and add some scoring pop or another go to option if other players are struggling. He's basically a 4 who's played some 5 and should mostly play 4 for us. Can shoot and move with the ball but defense seems to be lackluster.

That's about as versatile as you would hope to be at the 5 spot. Offensively and defensively you have most options covered if you need to adjust in game plans.

In addition...if we ever have injury issues or major foul trouble we also have guys to plug in at the 4 who can move someone else to the 5. Eason, Lakhin, and Davenport (if nobody red shirts). Overall we should be in better shape at the 5 this year for all the reasons listed above.
Click to expand...

I would rank our situation at the 5 position as top 2/3 in the conference going into next season (UCF and SMU can also make similar claims).

As modern basketball changes however, this does not provide the same competitive advantage as it did 20 years ago.

Brannen and his staff will have their hands full analyzing match-ups on both ends of the court involving Vogt, Dou, and Rap and when it makes most sense to have any 2 of those 3 on the court at the same time.
 
Queens_NYC said:
I would rank our situation at the 5 position as top 2/3 in the conference going into next season (UCF and SMU can also make similar claims).

As modern basketball changes however, this does not provide the same competitive advantage as it did 20 years ago.

Brannen and his staff will have their hands full analyzing match-ups on both ends of the court involving Vogt, Dou, and Rap and when it makes most sense to have any 2 of those 3 on the court at the same time.
Click to expand...

UCF? Other than Collin Smith, who do they have?
 
Queens_NYC said:
I would rank our situation at the 5 position as top 2/3 in the conference going into next season (UCF and SMU can also make similar claims).

As modern basketball changes however, this does not provide the same competitive advantage as it did 20 years ago.

Brannen and his staff will have their hands full analyzing match-ups on both ends of the court involving Vogt, Dou, and Rap and when it makes most sense to have any 2 of those 3 on the court at the same time.
Click to expand...

True...but if your bigs can shoot it does help and I like the versatility of lineups we will have access to. Even on the wing we will have guys who can either shoot or slash/drive. We have played many years with some zero to one dimensional players (offensively) and now most of our guys have more than one skill they can use.

Starting to see the vision now
 
I mostly agree with your assessment of the players, but I am less optimistic about our 5.

There are several reasons I have for doubt, but we will see how things progress.

First, I am not confident Vogt will be back. He retained a firm that represents international players pretty much exclusively. He's not going to play in the NBA (or even the G-League) and doesn't really have anything that he can add to his game that will make him look better to the NBA - or even internationally - next year. He can make some small improvements, but if he's looking to maximize his career earnings he's probably better off going to play internationally and not coming back here. Covid may make coming back less attractive as well (potentially playing games with no fans). There's also the possibility that Diarra will take his starting role, will Vogt want to come back to be a backup?

Second, Rap is a pretty major unknown. He had a good year on offense as a Sophomore and a poor one as a Junior. His defense/rebounding (especially at the 4) may be bad enough at times (especially if Vogt is at the 5) that we can't keep him on the floor. He looks pretty capable on offense, but the jump in competition level won't be easy to make. A guy who looks like a star at a low-major more often than not, ends up no better than a role player at a high-major.

An additional issue for Rap (who will be learning two positions), Eason and Lahkin (though I assume he will red shirt) is the late start to practice season. We saw Diarra struggle learning two positions last year, Rap has more basketball experience but still has to learn both positions in Brannen's system, which may not happen by the start of the season.

My main concern with Diarra is that he never really learned to play the 4 last year (or at least never played it well). He was consistently better playing the 5, if that's true this year than we may have issues at the 4. He should rotate well with Vogt at the 5 though, he was our best center for the last month or so and I expect that to continue next year (regardless of if Vogt goes pro or not).
 
skyblade said:
I mostly agree with your assessment of the players, but I am less optimistic about our 5.

There are several reasons I have for doubt, but we will see how things progress.

First, I am not confident Vogt will be back. He retained a firm that represents international players pretty much exclusively. He's not going to play in the NBA (or even the G-League) and doesn't really have anything that he can add to his game that will make him look better to the NBA - or even internationally - next year. He can make some small improvements, but if he's looking to maximize his career earnings he's probably better off going to play internationally and not coming back here. Covid may make coming back less attractive as well (potentially playing games with no fans). There's also the possibility that Diarra will take his starting role, will Vogt want to come back to be a backup?

Second, Rap is a pretty major unknown. He had a good year on offense as a Sophomore and a poor one as a Junior. His defense/rebounding (especially at the 4) may be bad enough at times (especially if Vogt is at the 5) that we can't keep him on the floor. He looks pretty capable on offense, but the jump in competition level won't be easy to make. A guy who looks like a star at a low-major more often than not, ends up no better than a role player at a high-major.

An additional issue for Rap (who will be learning two positions), Eason and Lahkin (though I assume he will red shirt) is the late start to practice season. We saw Diarra struggle learning two positions last year, Rap has more basketball experience but still has to learn both positions in Brannen's system, which may not happen by the start of the season.

My main concern with Diarra is that he never really learned to play the 4 last year (or at least never played it well). He was consistently better playing the 5, if that's true this year than we may have issues at the 4. He should rotate well with Vogt at the 5 though, he was our best center for the last month or so and I expect that to continue next year (regardless of if Vogt goes pro or not).
Click to expand...

Oh wow. This makes a lot of sense.

I guess that partly explains why the staff so aggressively pursued Lakhin - knowing that there is a pretty strong possibility that Vogt does leave and we'll need to fill front court minutes.
 
skyblade said:
I mostly agree with your assessment of the players, but I am less optimistic about our 5.

There are several reasons I have for doubt, but we will see how things progress.

First, I am not confident Vogt will be back. He retained a firm that represents international players pretty much exclusively. He's not going to play in the NBA (or even the G-League) and doesn't really have anything that he can add to his game that will make him look better to the NBA - or even internationally - next year. He can make some small improvements, but if he's looking to maximize his career earnings he's probably better off going to play internationally and not coming back here. Covid may make coming back less attractive as well (potentially playing games with no fans). There's also the possibility that Diarra will take his starting role, will Vogt want to come back to be a backup?

Second, Rap is a pretty major unknown. He had a good year on offense as a Sophomore and a poor one as a Junior. His defense/rebounding (especially at the 4) may be bad enough at times (especially if Vogt is at the 5) that we can't keep him on the floor. He looks pretty capable on offense, but the jump in competition level won't be easy to make. A guy who looks like a star at a low-major more often than not, ends up no better than a role player at a high-major.

An additional issue for Rap (who will be learning two positions), Eason and Lahkin (though I assume he will red shirt) is the late start to practice season. We saw Diarra struggle learning two positions last year, Rap has more basketball experience but still has to learn both positions in Brannen's system, which may not happen by the start of the season.

My main concern with Diarra is that he never really learned to play the 4 last year (or at least never played it well). He was consistently better playing the 5, if that's true this year than we may have issues at the 4. He should rotate well with Vogt at the 5 though, he was our best center for the last month or so and I expect that to continue next year (regardless of if Vogt goes pro or not).
Click to expand...

Some of your concerns are legit. Vogt won’t probably get much better value than he has now but if he comes back Brannen loves him. I would also hope Brannen can use the bench this year to get a guy like Rap going all out every play. If he wants to go pro he needs to be on the court. Diarra was not the only one learning two positions...so I think he was just slower to pick things up overall so I don’t think we can project that onto other players. He should see most of his time at the 5 given our roster makeup. We have no less than 5 options who can play some 4 if you include small ball with no red shirt
 
Moving on to the 4 we are not simply going to replace what Scott did the last half of the year and maybe not even the first half. So I think we take a slight hit here since he was playing 30+ minutes. We have a lot of options with a lot more questions. We should have an option to play without Vogt at times and use two 4's.

Rap is probably penciled in here as the starter with Dou hopefully splitting duties at the 5 and if needed splitting at the 4 as well depending on the development of the supporting cast. We have mentioned both of their abilities in the discussion on the 5 spot.

There is a lot of hype around Eason but a lot of fans also thinking frosh will be frosh with limited impact. I tend to side with limited impact here because of the veterans in front. Gary Clark had little to no competition at his position as a frosh. But Eason did finish the season strong. From video I see the promise but I think he still could be a year away. He will get some time to show what he can do though.

Davenport. I honestly would love to see him just work on his outside shot and defense and be a 3 and D guy on the wing and not a 4. I don't see any meaningful minutes for him at the 4 (in his career). 3 and D could get him somewhere as a 6'7" wing. Undersized 4 who can't shoot...is a closed door.

Vik Lakhin. Tough to say here but I think Brannen was bullish on this guy over others so there is some obvious promise here. Very little video but has managed somehow to get a pretty high scout ranking which tells me it's more about his upside than current form. I mean how many scouts saw him in person? I would put him in the Monster Factory and red shirt the guy if my gut is correct. He's young and his body and skill level doesn't look ready for AAC punishment.

Small ball. It's always an option especially if Harvey and Madsen end up being legit. Not much problem running wings at the 4 who are 6'5" plus. Obviously the benefits would need to outweigh the problems. If DeJulius is available and we need to run with he and MAW...we may see some small ball lineups with a makeshift wing 4.

Once again our versatility is pretty nice but our inexperience and questions are pretty big too. I am going to give Scott credit here and call this one a slight loss. So I think so far we have a slight gain at 5 and a slight loss loss at 4.
 
Really hard to say who will start given the circumstances they've been training under.

Is Rap even in Cincinnati?

My guess is the season will start with Dou at the 4 and Vogt at the 5, just to see how they play together. Both have experience in the system.

Rap may move up in there, but he'll have to get settled somewhat. I do think starting him and having Dou sub in between 4 and 5 could be a good mix.

If Eason starts then we really got a much better player than anyone expected. I bet he'll contribute, but not with starters minutes unless due to injury.

Davenport is only going to play there if we really need him to pester someone on defense in a strange way. He doesn't really play big enough for that position, but he does hustle and add energy. I just don't think he's a 4.
 
At the PG position it's going to be hard to replace the production of Cumberland. But we should have a player there who fits more natural in the system CJB wants to run.

MAW...he would likely get the first look provided Dejulius is not available. He seemed to be more productive from top of the key than the wing but I don't think he's the best fit here for the team overall. He's not a speedster with great ball skills so I think long term we should get him in the right position as a SG. There seems to be more natural fits at the 1.

Dejulius...if available I would think he would be option A. He would have experience over Mikey and David has a decent arsenal of shooting, ball skills, speed, and finishing on the break. It would be nice to have a scoring threat as a PG rather than someone who just gets us into the offense.

Saunders...long term I think he's going to be great for us but it could take a year or two for him to get the keys. If he gets them any sooner we should have a great player on our hands. Speedy, good ball skills, improved deep ball, and has played well against good competition.

Mason Madsen...he does have some appeal here if he puts in the work which seems like a given. He's got decent ball skills and a good shot and seems like a pass first type of player. There would be good chemistry on the floor long term with Gabe. He could also become a knock down shooter and play SG. Reportedly a better defender than his brother but all of the guys on this list seem capable defenders.

Short term loss here compared to Cumberland but long term better fits for the system.
 
It's going to be interesting to see how a speedy guard can work for Brannen. He wants to push the pace obviously. He has a full roster of talented players so it should be much easier to get out and run and plug and play when guys get tired. A lot more pressing as well as we are 2 and 3 deep at most positions.

We will also be able to run the 5 out motion. CJB did a pretty good job of making things work last year without being able to run hardly any of his preferred stuff. Losing Cumberland is tough...but if there is a silver lining...it's pretty easy to spot.

With a little more parity in the roster...Brannen can use that bench now as a teaching tool and he doesn't have to manufacture ways to keep certain guys on the floor. He should not have to play with tired players or anyone taking plays off. There will be someone behind them willing to go all out. The competition for minutes should be fierce.
 
My biggest offensive concerns are outside shooting and O rebounding. Will we get better shots at a higher clip, and if not will we get second chances?

If Brannen's system can offer more screening to get guys into the lane and open shots, we might get by with less outside shooting. I have a feeling he wanted to run more motion screens, but had to switch course.

Last season the defense was still a work in progress much of the time, which meant that we often needed three pointers from Cousin Cumberland to help us move ahead.

If guys don't improve from distance it could mean some creativity is needed to get closer to the basket. Not the worst thing, especially if we get to the line more frequently. Everyone knows a balanced attack is clearly better.

I know the Madsen's were both shooting well from long range in high school. Saunders was okay, but will need to improve. I guess DeJulius could be that player. Harvey seems to be a bit more like Cumberland, he wants the ball in his hand and wants to try to dunk. Really hoping that Harvey, Davenport and Dou have continued to work on three pointers.
 
sirthought said:
My biggest offensive concerns are outside shooting and O rebounding. Will we get better shots at a higher clip, and if not will we get second chances?

If Brannen's system can offer more screening to get guys into the lane and open shots, we might get by with less outside shooting. I have a feeling he wanted to run more motion screens, but had to switch course.

Last season the defense was still a work in progress much of the time, which meant that we often needed three pointers from Cousin Cumberland to help us move ahead.

If guys don't improve from distance it could mean some creativity is needed to get closer to the basket. Not the worst thing, especially if we get to the line more frequently. Everyone knows a balanced attack is clearly better.

I know the Madsen's were both shooting well from long range in high school. Saunders was okay, but will need to improve. I guess DeJulius could be that player. Harvey seems to be a bit more like Cumberland, he wants the ball in his hand and wants to try to dunk. Really hoping that Harvey, Davenport and Dou have continued to work on three pointers.
Click to expand...

Yah...I don't think we will be a particularly good 3 pt shooting team but I think we should be just good enough to keep em honest. I have concerns about rebounding too unless we send everyone to crash the glass.
 
3FG Shooting Stats for Returning D1 players (UC players + Transfers)

Diarra - 71.4% (5/7)
Adams-Woods - 37.3% (22/59)
DeJulius - 36.1% (30/83)
Williams - 34.2% (27/79)
Harvey - 31.3% (5/16)
Ivanauskas - 26.3% (31/118)
Davenport - 14.3% (2/14)
Vogt - 0% (0/0)
--------------------------------
Total: 122/376 (32.4%)

We shot 31.9% as a team last year.
 
Queens_NYC said:
3FG Shooting Stats for Returning D1 players (UC players + Transfers)

Diarra - 71.4% (5/7)
Adams-Woods - 37.3% (22/59)
DeJulius - 36.1% (30/83)
Williams - 34.2% (27/79)
Harvey - 31.3% (5/16)
Ivanauskas - 26.3% (31/118)
Davenport - 14.3% (2/14)
Vogt - 0% (0/0)
--------------------------------
Total: 122/376 (32.4%)

We shot 31.9% as a team last year.
Click to expand...

Not great not horrible but we should be serviceable and that will be enough to run the offense
 
So the wing position is in my mind perhaps the most important to deciding how good we will be. We need to score the ball in the absence of the Cumberlands. We think we know what we have in Williams but I am still undecided. When we were pressured to put the ball in his hands...he really came through a few times for us. Can he do that consistently night in night out or not is the question.

Keith...he's the guy right now on the wing to take the mantle. He's the focal point or we will just have to go all out on scoring from 5 positions. He improved his 3 ball and really seemed to embrace the clutch situations when he had to but we will always need at least 1 go to guy and I hope we have 2 or 3 of them this year.

Harvey...loads of talent but never really looked all that comfortable last year. A lot was said about him recovering from leg injuries but it was still hard to see the type of player he will be. Sounds like he is really doing well in off season though. Still a big question mark but we need someone to step up. Played some really good D 2nd half of the season.

MAW...could see some time at PG or SG. Solid enough to be a role player IMO but we probably need to settle on a position for him. Solid ball handler with a good shooting stroke and good D. Best served on the wing in the end IMO. He wasn't as effective when he moved over to the wing but we were also trying to ISO Jarron a lot of the time so who knows.

Gabe...I am very excited to see this kid. Probably won't be super effective early on but I really hope we can lean on him at some point maybe mid season. I don't care if it's as a shooter or a play maker...I think we will need Gabe to step in and contribute. He's got a lot of tools and perhaps more importantly confidence in play making ability that can help us down the stretch.

Dejulius could see some time at SG depending on his eligibility and who's best at running PG. I would rather see him at point but other than height issues I would not be too concerned if we need him at SG.

Davenport. I know he's not a 3 but he probably should be if he wants to play a lot or go pro. Focus on the 3 ball would do wonders for his career IMO. He can defend pretty well but doesn't have a lot of skills that jump off the page. 3 and D would be great for him.

Mason M...could see some time at SG if he becomes a deadly shooter. Very similar to Davenport where he would probably be best served to perfect the 3 ball as opposed to how much work goes into perfecting ball handling and play making. But if he does become a great ball handler...it might be great to see him out there feeding Gabe at some point. The chemistry would be fun to watch.
 
Keith is our single most important player at the moment.

After him, at the 2/3 spots we're considering:

-2 true freshmen (Madsen bros)
-1 true sophomore who played 9 min/game (Harvey)
-1 true sophomore who is unproven as a combo guard (MAW)
-1 transfer who is talented but undersized on the wing and may not even be eligible (Dejulius)
-1 true sophomore who played the least of our returning players, is not a natural wing, and is coming off a major injury

Keith provides experience, leadership, athleticism, scoring ability, rebounding ability, defense, and is a reliable FT shooter.

Without him, no matter who his replacement may be, we would be a far less competitive team next season.
 

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