Bearcat_NTS
Well-known member
The bulk of OOC play is finished now for the American, so it's time to take inventory on how the conference has performed so far. All RPI numbers are from Live-RPI.
CONTENDERS
Cincinnati
Record: 10-2
RPI: 31 (OOC SOS 83)
KenPom: 20
Notable Wins: @Iowa State, vs. Penn State
Bad Losses: None
Cincinnati generally held serve in the OOC slate splitting the marquee games against Butler and Iowa State and still have a home game remaining with Xavier. The Bearcats open the conference slate with a tough stretch @Temple, Tulane, @Houston and SMU. If they come out of that 3-1 or better, they will be in good position to win the regular season title.
Post-season Outlook: NCAA TOURNAMENT (Projected Auto-Bid Winner)
SMU
Record: 10-3
RPI: 48 (OOC SOS 75)
KenPom: 34
Notable Wins: vs. Pittsburgh, TCU, Stanford
Bad Losses: None
SMU didn't perform terribly in the OOC taking care of business at home against decent competition. Unfortunately the win over Pittsburgh has lost some luster while the loss at USC doesn't look as bad. As usual, the Mustags struggled away from home going 1-3 with the worst of which being a loss to Boise State. The Broncos are not a good team but as long as the hang around the top 100-150, it won't be a terrible loss come Selection Sunday. They will have to show they can win road games in the league against the middle of the pack and can't stub their toes with the bottom of the league. They are in decent position for the tournament as of today but certainly are not sure thing as a first ballot team (top 9 seeds).
Post-season Outlook: NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE
Houston
Record: 9-3
RPI: 85 (OOC SOS 158)
KenPom: 53
Notable Wins: Rhode Island
Bad Losses: Harvard
Houston blew their chances in the OOC losing on the road against a pair of SEC foes (@LSU and @Arkansas). However they did beat Rhode Island at home (without Hassan Martin). That win alone isn't enough to overcome the home loss to Harvard. Bottom line is they didn't schedule tough enough and their only wins away from home were over George Mason, South Dakota and Vermont. Of those three, only Vermont will register as anything close to a quality win. The Cougars absolutely must have a strong conference record to get serious consideration for the NCAA Tournament. That run starts with a road game against UConn
Post-season Outlook: NIT
Temple
Record: 9-4
RPI: 26 (OOC SOS 7)
KenPom: 85
Notable Wins: vs. Florida State, vs. West Virginia
Bad Losses: New Hampshire, George Washington
For the second year in a row Temple has been a jekyll and hyde team with arguably the two best wins the league had on a neutral floor against FSU and WVU. Based on the strength of those two wins, they will remain in the NCAA bid hunt. The losses to GWU and New Hampshire are bad, namely the first one. New Hampshire may go on to win their league which could cushion the blow some. When you get to the bottom of the bubble, everyone will have bad losses.
Last season Temple rode their wins over the top of the league to a bid. They swept Cincinnati, went 2-1 vs UConn and won their only meeting with SMU. Those 5 wins were enough to overcome some bad losses and they may need a similar run versus the other contenders this season to make it back to back.
Post-season Outlook: NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE
MIDDLE OF THE PACK
Memphis
Record: 9-3
RPI: 125 (OOC SOS 233)
KenPom: 81
Notable Wins: @Oklahoma
Bad Losses: None
Memphis is my dark horse to move up to the next category. Though you could argue the home loss to Monmouth was a bad loss for the Tigers, their other losses weren't horrible and were away from home (Providence and Ole Miss). They really need to root for Oklahoma to turn it around in the Big 12 to turn that into a signature win. Also, they have one HUGE OOC game remaining in a home contest with South Carolina. If they win that one, they may get back to the fringes of my radar. Unfortunately they only get Cincinnati once and it is on the road. This is a team I'd keep my eye on in the conference tournament. They have the best player in the league and a good coach...which is a recipe for success.
This is the first of two potential bid stealers.
Post-season Outlook: NIT
UCF
Record: 9-3
RPI: 74 (OOC SOS 136)
KenPom: 86
Notable Wins: @UMass (?)
Bad Losses: Penn, @George Washington
UCF was off to a nice starting 7-1 with decent (not great) wins away from home over UMass, a semi-away game with Charleston and a nice showing against Villanova for a half. Unfortunately BJ Taylor, their starting PG, got hurt and they lost to two bad teams...thus likely ending their at-large hopes. With Taco Fall and a somewhat talented roster, the Knights have a solid chance to finish somewhere between 11-7 and 8-10 in the league which will be a huge improvement. I'm not a fan of Dawkins but if he can make them respectable, it will really help the league. Also note they only play SMU once and it is at home.
Post-season Outlook: NIT BUBBLE
Connecticut
Record: 5-6 (4-6 vs DI)
RPI: 163 (OOC SOS 60)
KenPom: 83
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: Wagner, Northeastern
Not much to say for the Huskies. They lost their first two games at full strength and then lost two key guys. At this point they are out of the at-large discussion and short of a 15-3 conference record and a win at Georgetown, they aren't getting back in the discussion. Out of respect I have them in this group. BTW, UConn has finished 5th, 6th, and 5th in the 3 seasons in the American. They are headed for a similar finish as their best case this season.
Luckily for the Huskies with the conference tournament in Hartford, they are still a threat to steal the bid.
Post-season Outlook: None
BOTTOM FEEDERS
I'm not going to spend much time over analyzing these teams. ECU is probably the only threat to move up. They have been somewhat of a disappointment so far. Tulsa had to replace way too many guys and is off to a rough start. USF and Tulane are absolutely horrible.
ECU
Record: 8-5
RPI: 219 (OOC SOS 305)
KenPom: 182
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Mercer, @Charlotte
Post-season Outlook: CBI(?)
Tulsa
Record: 6-6
RPI: 162 (OOC SOS 163)
KenPom: 140
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: Jacksonville State, @UALR
Post-season Outlook: NONE
USF
Record: 6-5
RPI: 263 (OOC SOS 308)
KenPom: 235
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: Elon, @FAU, Northern Illinois
It only gets worse for the Bulls, Jahmal McMurray (averaged 20.3 points) has decided to transfer.
Post-season Outlook: NONE
Tulane
Record: 3-9
RPI: 340 (OOC SOS 336)
KenPom: 275
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: McNesse, Texas State, @New Orleans
One of the worst profiles I've ever seen for a team in Cincinnati's league in a long time.
Post-season Outlook: NONE
CONTENDERS
Cincinnati
Record: 10-2
RPI: 31 (OOC SOS 83)
KenPom: 20
Notable Wins: @Iowa State, vs. Penn State
Bad Losses: None
Cincinnati generally held serve in the OOC slate splitting the marquee games against Butler and Iowa State and still have a home game remaining with Xavier. The Bearcats open the conference slate with a tough stretch @Temple, Tulane, @Houston and SMU. If they come out of that 3-1 or better, they will be in good position to win the regular season title.
Post-season Outlook: NCAA TOURNAMENT (Projected Auto-Bid Winner)
SMU
Record: 10-3
RPI: 48 (OOC SOS 75)
KenPom: 34
Notable Wins: vs. Pittsburgh, TCU, Stanford
Bad Losses: None
SMU didn't perform terribly in the OOC taking care of business at home against decent competition. Unfortunately the win over Pittsburgh has lost some luster while the loss at USC doesn't look as bad. As usual, the Mustags struggled away from home going 1-3 with the worst of which being a loss to Boise State. The Broncos are not a good team but as long as the hang around the top 100-150, it won't be a terrible loss come Selection Sunday. They will have to show they can win road games in the league against the middle of the pack and can't stub their toes with the bottom of the league. They are in decent position for the tournament as of today but certainly are not sure thing as a first ballot team (top 9 seeds).
Post-season Outlook: NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE
Houston
Record: 9-3
RPI: 85 (OOC SOS 158)
KenPom: 53
Notable Wins: Rhode Island
Bad Losses: Harvard
Houston blew their chances in the OOC losing on the road against a pair of SEC foes (@LSU and @Arkansas). However they did beat Rhode Island at home (without Hassan Martin). That win alone isn't enough to overcome the home loss to Harvard. Bottom line is they didn't schedule tough enough and their only wins away from home were over George Mason, South Dakota and Vermont. Of those three, only Vermont will register as anything close to a quality win. The Cougars absolutely must have a strong conference record to get serious consideration for the NCAA Tournament. That run starts with a road game against UConn
Post-season Outlook: NIT
Temple
Record: 9-4
RPI: 26 (OOC SOS 7)
KenPom: 85
Notable Wins: vs. Florida State, vs. West Virginia
Bad Losses: New Hampshire, George Washington
For the second year in a row Temple has been a jekyll and hyde team with arguably the two best wins the league had on a neutral floor against FSU and WVU. Based on the strength of those two wins, they will remain in the NCAA bid hunt. The losses to GWU and New Hampshire are bad, namely the first one. New Hampshire may go on to win their league which could cushion the blow some. When you get to the bottom of the bubble, everyone will have bad losses.
Last season Temple rode their wins over the top of the league to a bid. They swept Cincinnati, went 2-1 vs UConn and won their only meeting with SMU. Those 5 wins were enough to overcome some bad losses and they may need a similar run versus the other contenders this season to make it back to back.
Post-season Outlook: NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE
MIDDLE OF THE PACK
Memphis
Record: 9-3
RPI: 125 (OOC SOS 233)
KenPom: 81
Notable Wins: @Oklahoma
Bad Losses: None
Memphis is my dark horse to move up to the next category. Though you could argue the home loss to Monmouth was a bad loss for the Tigers, their other losses weren't horrible and were away from home (Providence and Ole Miss). They really need to root for Oklahoma to turn it around in the Big 12 to turn that into a signature win. Also, they have one HUGE OOC game remaining in a home contest with South Carolina. If they win that one, they may get back to the fringes of my radar. Unfortunately they only get Cincinnati once and it is on the road. This is a team I'd keep my eye on in the conference tournament. They have the best player in the league and a good coach...which is a recipe for success.
This is the first of two potential bid stealers.
Post-season Outlook: NIT
UCF
Record: 9-3
RPI: 74 (OOC SOS 136)
KenPom: 86
Notable Wins: @UMass (?)
Bad Losses: Penn, @George Washington
UCF was off to a nice starting 7-1 with decent (not great) wins away from home over UMass, a semi-away game with Charleston and a nice showing against Villanova for a half. Unfortunately BJ Taylor, their starting PG, got hurt and they lost to two bad teams...thus likely ending their at-large hopes. With Taco Fall and a somewhat talented roster, the Knights have a solid chance to finish somewhere between 11-7 and 8-10 in the league which will be a huge improvement. I'm not a fan of Dawkins but if he can make them respectable, it will really help the league. Also note they only play SMU once and it is at home.
Post-season Outlook: NIT BUBBLE
Connecticut
Record: 5-6 (4-6 vs DI)
RPI: 163 (OOC SOS 60)
KenPom: 83
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: Wagner, Northeastern
Not much to say for the Huskies. They lost their first two games at full strength and then lost two key guys. At this point they are out of the at-large discussion and short of a 15-3 conference record and a win at Georgetown, they aren't getting back in the discussion. Out of respect I have them in this group. BTW, UConn has finished 5th, 6th, and 5th in the 3 seasons in the American. They are headed for a similar finish as their best case this season.
Luckily for the Huskies with the conference tournament in Hartford, they are still a threat to steal the bid.
Post-season Outlook: None
BOTTOM FEEDERS
I'm not going to spend much time over analyzing these teams. ECU is probably the only threat to move up. They have been somewhat of a disappointment so far. Tulsa had to replace way too many guys and is off to a rough start. USF and Tulane are absolutely horrible.
ECU
Record: 8-5
RPI: 219 (OOC SOS 305)
KenPom: 182
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Mercer, @Charlotte
Post-season Outlook: CBI(?)
Tulsa
Record: 6-6
RPI: 162 (OOC SOS 163)
KenPom: 140
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: Jacksonville State, @UALR
Post-season Outlook: NONE
USF
Record: 6-5
RPI: 263 (OOC SOS 308)
KenPom: 235
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: Elon, @FAU, Northern Illinois
It only gets worse for the Bulls, Jahmal McMurray (averaged 20.3 points) has decided to transfer.
Post-season Outlook: NONE
Tulane
Record: 3-9
RPI: 340 (OOC SOS 336)
KenPom: 275
Notable Wins: None
Bad Losses: McNesse, Texas State, @New Orleans
One of the worst profiles I've ever seen for a team in Cincinnati's league in a long time.
Post-season Outlook: NONE