Baylor is a ridiculously good three point shooting team. There isn't a single player on their roster who shoots under 33%. Nine of the ten players who have attempted a three make over 41%. They are also elite at the rim, converting 69% there. They rank #26 in offensive rebounding, grabbing 36% of their misses. And they have top 100 turnover and free throw rates. Baylor does everything well on the offensive end with very few weaknesses.
Defense is another story. They are outside the top 100 in each of the "four factors", though the overall defense ranks #91 because they don't do anything bad. When they lose it's generally because opponents are getting to the rim. In the three games where they gave up more than 1.18 points per possession (including both losses), their opponents got to the rim at least 23 times. Michigan St converted 18 of 23 rim looks (78%).
Slowing Baylor's offense is a huge challenge, but the good news is our scheme is tailored for a team like this. We're good at preventing open set shots from beyond the arc. Their highest usage player is PG RayJ Dennis, who turns it over more than 3 times per game. Their centers don't shoot threes. They aren't a great midrange shooting team, hitting under 36%. So if we can run them off the line and keep a shot blocker at the rim, we might do ok. That's going to be hard to do if we play two bigs, so I'd prefer to see mostly Skillings and Reed at the 4.
On offense we need to attack. Getting to the rim is the clear key to unlock their defense. I would go 5 out and run a lot of PnR with one big. If we do run with two bigs, pound it inside and get some interior passes and screens going.
