Evans Running the Offense

[jacobkdoyle]

One of you guys who is better than I am at crunching numbers...please tell me if there is anything to be made from this:

Last year Evans shot 41.8% from 3 and 95.7% of those 3s were assisted

This year Evans is shooting 38.5% from 3 and 87.2% of those 3s are assisted

Could playing with a dominant ball guy like Caupain have helped him shoot a higher % bc of catch and shoots, as opposed to having to create a little more for himself and having the ball more late in the clock? His number of 3 pt attempts per 40 is lower this year than last. So it doesn't seem like volume is the issue. But there is a difference in how the 3s are being made. He has made 116 3s over the last 2 years so I have no idea if that's a good enough sample to even gather anything from this or not.

I wish I could see what these numbers look like over the past 6-7 games.

Is this an explanation? A concern? Thoughts?

 

[jacobkdoyle]

It's funny bc on 47 made 3s this year at 87.2% assisted...that'd be about 4 less made 3s off of assists from last year's assisted rate. Had those 4 been assisted to be the same rate as last year, he'd be at exactly 41.8% (if he made them).

P.S. I know it doesn't work exactly like this, so please don't kill me. Just thought it was an interesting tidbit.

 

[cincrulz11]

First I would say a 3 % change in percent over that sample size is nothing. just 3 games ago he was shooting 41.9%.



2nd i would say most shooters are better shooters off a catch and release. its just an easier shot. i would expect him and most other shooters to shoot a higher percent if all they have to do is catch it and shoot it.


plus its likely the catch and shoot shots are more open. although i have to be honest i dont recall a lot of 3's this year from him where he was trying to take a guy on and then pulled up for 3. I think when he does that, he tends to get inside the arc.



but yeah overall the sample size is just too small. check out steph curry's month to month to see how much it can swing in 120 or so attempts.

 

[juckerrules]

Cronin says his form is off...that he’s releasing the ball too low- like at eye level & they have been working on raising his release

 

[waterhead]

One of you guys who is better than I am at crunching numbers...please tell me if there is anything to be made from this:

Last year Evans shot 41.8% from 3 and 95.7% of those 3s were assisted

This year Evans is shooting 38.5% from 3 and 87.2% of those 3s are assisted

Could playing with a dominant ball guy like Caupain have helped him shoot a higher % bc of catch and shoots, as opposed to having to create a little more for himself and having the ball more late in the clock? His number of 3 pt attempts per 40 is lower this year than last. So it doesn't seem like volume is the issue. But there is a difference in how the 3s are being made. He has made 116 3s over the last 2 years so I have no idea if that's a good enough sample to even gather anything from this or not.

I wish I could see what these numbers look like over the past 6-7 games.

Is this an explanation? A concern? Thoughts?

He's 3 for 17 his last 5 games. It's either a strange coincidence or we need to put him back on the wing where he isn't constantly moving and forcing things. If Jenifer can't get us into sets...we need to have Cane in there for all the minutes he can get.

 

[waterhead]

How many of those 17 were unassisted? I don't have that data. I feel like he's been doing a little more of the unassisted shooting lately but that's just my gut.

 

[waterhead]

Cronin says his form is off...that he’s releasing the ball too low- like at eye level & they have been working on raising his release

Did he say how long it's been off? Players don't normally change form late season... unless their legs are gone. But Evans still gets up for a lot of blocks and doesn't look tired.

 

[2Sense]

My guess is that he is taking more contested shots and contested shots result in a lower percent. Also, creating shots for yourself usually result in more contested shots as opposed to shots from assists. Just a guess.

A related side topic is, why do you think he is playing more point? My theory is that people like Pitino or NBA scouts have told Cronin that Jacob's chance in the NBA is at point rather than a 2 guard, so he is trying to give him opportunities to develop those skills. A coach might have several different motivations besides just winning as many games as possible. Again, just a theory, no inside info. Or maybe he just likes that option better than Justin or Cane.

 

[juckerrules]

Did he say how long it's been off? Players don't normally change form late season... unless their legs are gone. But Evans still gets up for a lot of blocks and doesn't look tired.

He mentioned Jake's been off the last 4 games...talked about how low his release has been & that they had been working on it but added "but he's got to be committed to it"

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/Lance-McAlister-20799901/episode/mick-cronin-postgameuconn-28983151/

 

[Jon Rycek]

My guess is that he is taking more contested shots and contested shots result in a lower percent. Also, creating shots for yourself usually result in more contested shots as opposed to shots from assists. Just a guess.

A related side topic is, why do you think he is playing more point? My theory is that people like Pitino or NBA scouts have told Cronin that Jacob's chance in the NBA is at point rather than a 2 guard, so he is trying to give him opportunities to develop those skills. A coach might have several different motivations besides just winning as many games as possible. Again, just a theory, no inside info. Or maybe he just likes that option better than Justin or Cane.

Why would he make a better PG in the NBA? It's the complete opposite of his skill set.

 

[justinhub2003]

Evans was near 43% as of like 5 games ago.

He was great, but he is in a serious shooting slump.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

@FanSidedNBA
#2018_NBA_Draft: Jacob Evans is a first round talent hiding in plain sight https://t.co/OkRhtjs4n0 via @hoopshabit https://t.co/AymPosi5zC

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I don't think Evans will be hurt as much by being as SR as most NBA hopefuls. A lot of times these days kids are already 19 when they start college. Evans is 20 right now as a JR and won't turn 21 until the summer. That's a big difference.

If he goes through the process and knows he'll be a 1st round pick, he must go. He doesn't have to force it though. Going early in the 2nd round could end up being the worst thing for his career.

 

[cincrulz11]

If he goes through the process and knows he'll be a 1st round pick, he must go. He doesn't have to force it though. Going early in the 2nd round could end up being the worst thing for his career.

yeah leaving early to go in the 2nd isn't a wise move. ask the last couple xavier pgs about that one.


realistically you should probably be projected mid to early 20 to leave early. if you're just projected to go late 1st, its a huge risk.

 

[2Sense]

in one of the game previews or post game comments Cronin made some comment like his future was at that position or he would make a lot of money doing that in the future when asked a question about Evans. Just reading into that. I haven't had time to go back and try to find it.

 

[cincrulz11]

in one of the game previews or post game comments Cronin made some comment like his future was at that position or he would make a lot of money doing that in the future when asked a question about Evans. Just reading into that. I haven't had time to go back and try to find it.

If mick thinks jakes future is as a pg he’s lost his mind.

Jakes ability to pass adds to his value at his current position. As the report a few posts up says, not many 3 and D guys are good passers.


But when the weakest part of your game is ball handling, moving from sg/sf to pg seems sorta crazy.