Expectations for Next 5 Games (OOC Gauntlet)

[Queens_NYC]

Cincinnati - 6-1, KenPom #36

12/1 - @UNLV (4-1, KenPom #132)
12/4 - NKU (7-1, KenPom #119)
12/8 - Xavier (3-3, KenPom #60)
12/15 - @Miss St (5-1, KenPom #29)
12/19 - UCLA (4-2, KenPom #52)

Last year our gauntlet consisted of @Xavier, Florida (neutral), Miss St and @UCLA. We went 2-2 in those games and were able to turn the momentum from those two wins into a 16-game winning streak.

How do you believe we'll fare this season?

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I think we go 3-2 but am hoping for 4-1. I got us beating UCLA, X and NKU at home. If we can steal one of the other two games that would be very nice. My reasoning is centered on only losing 2 home games the last 2 years. We have been tough for teams to beat on our floor. Even if it was NKU for one season.

 

[mdchick]

I think UCLA is the best team, they played UNC very close until about 5 minutes left in the game then UNC throttled them, the miss state game is 50/50, the x game is 50/50, we should win the other 2

 

[GarradJ21]

IMO yes the next 5 games are tough but we really should beat UNLV and NKU so then that leaves you with the other 3 games. Anything short of 2-1 would not feel good so Im hoping for 4-1. Especially since 2 of those 3 games are at home.

 

[Cin City]

UNLV hasn't played the toughest schedule, but neither have we. However, if the old saying "Defense Travels" is to be believed...then we should leave Vegas as solid winners.

The other 4 are a toss-up. We should beat NKU, but i have to believe they will play us tough. Xavier is always a toss-up. Miss. St. and UCLA are both pretty good.

These next 5 could go a long way come selection Sunday.

I expect to go 3-2. Anything more is a blessing. Anything less and I'm just going to be pissed off awhile.

I'll recover though.

 

[cincrulz11]

first 2 shouldn't be a problem, i dont think i'd consider them particularly tough.



the next 3 though, you could see the 2 home games going either way, and i dont like our chances vs mississippi state very much. mississippi state plays pretty well on both sides. i will say a plus for us in that game though is they aren't the best at preventing offensive rebounds. they let austin peay get 35%, arizona st get 37.5%, and saint mary's to get 32.5% and arizona state is the only team thats even good at getting offensive boards (but we are better).



im never going to feel good going into a xavier game until we show we'll show up for the game more than once every 5 years or w/e it is.

 

[justinhub2003]

I'm not overlooking Xavier. they have more raw talent than we do.


But most of all, they will be DESPERATE. They literally have nothing but US and @missouri left on their non conference. We are their only chance at a tier 1 win in the non conference most likely as missouri isn't good at all this year.


That said, even our average offense should be able to carve up Xavier's 327th ranked defense (without preseason bias baked in).

Cane was able to blow by his man every time last year and we need Cane to do the same thing this season and for Jarron to be big Game Jarron like he always is.


ALSO... PLEASE Guard Ryan Welage. He is exactly the kind of ugly faced Xavier kid that will shoot us to shreds if we don't find him.

 

[cincrulz11]

ALSO... PLEASE Guard Ryan Welage. He is exactly the kind of ugly faced Xavier kid that will shoot us to shreds if we don't find him.

its always the bad shooters that hurt us vs them, and they've got more this year than ever before!


we gotta worry about goodin, marshall, and scruggs.

 

[waterhead]

Cincinnati - 6-1, KenPom #36

12/1 - @UNLV (4-1, KenPom #132)
12/4 - NKU (7-1, KenPom #119)
12/8 - Xavier (3-3, KenPom #60)
12/15 - @Miss St (5-1, KenPom #29)
12/19 - UCLA (4-2, KenPom #52)

Last year our gauntlet consisted of @Xavier, Florida (neutral), Miss St and @UCLA. We went 2-2 in those games and were able to turn the momentum from those two wins into a 16-game winning streak.

How do you believe we'll fare this season?

Had this question been asked after the first 2 games I would probably have said 2-3 at best. At this point after seeing a lot of progress I would have to say 3-2 would be the minimum we need from that stretch. I think 4-1 should be a real chance as well.

3-2 content
4-1 very happy
5-0 Ecstatic

 

[waterhead]

Well it's official now! With a statement game to end the 5 game stretch.

I am a happy fan and I was dead wrong about this team coming into the season and after 3 games. We are so far ahead of where I thought we were going to be.

These guys are playing well together and for the most part all seem to buy into their roles. The way Jenifer, Scott, and Brooks talk after games you can tell their focus is where coach wants it to be. The performance of Williams has been huge as well. Coach has done a great job...so far one of his best years...maybe his best if we can keep it rolling.

 

[GarradJ21]

Well it's official now! With a statement game to end the 5 game stretch.

I am a happy fan and I was dead wrong about this team coming into the season and after 3 games. We are so far ahead of where I thought we were going to be.

These guys are playing well together and for the most part all seem to buy into their roles. The way Jenifer, Scott, and Brooks talk after games you can tell their focus is where coach wants it to be. The performance of Williams has been huge as well. Coach has done a great job...so far one of his best years...maybe his best if we can keep it rolling.

Agreed. Lets keep it moving.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Well it's official now! With a statement game to end the 5 game stretch.

I am a happy fan and I was dead wrong about this team coming into the season and after 3 games. We are so far ahead of where I thought we were going to be.

These guys are playing well together and for the most part all seem to buy into their roles. The way Jenifer, Scott, and Brooks talk after games you can tell their focus is where coach wants it to be. The performance of Williams has been huge as well. Coach has done a great job...so far one of his best years...maybe his best if we can keep it rolling.

WH, for me its more then this year. Coach has us positioned to continue to be a very good program. Next year we lose JJ and Broome. I am hoping Cumberland stays. We have Curtis coming and Logan back for a second year. If Williams, Brooks and Scott take the next step in their development we could have a very nice team. We are going to be very good with a very deep bench. While we do not get the one and doners we do get very good student athletes that are fun to watch over 4 years. We reload every year but it is with players that have been in the program.

 

[skyblade]

WH, for me its more then this year. Coach has us positioned to continue to be a very good program. Next year we lose JJ and Broome. I am hoping Cumberland stays. We have Curtis coming and Logan back for a second year. If Williams, Brooks and Scott take the next step in their development we could have a very nice team. We are going to be very good with a very deep bench. While we do not get the one and doners we do get very good student athletes that are fun to watch over 4 years. We reload every year but it is with players that have been in the program.

Completely agree. This year, even though we are looking very good, is really just the prelude to next year assuming Cumberland stays. JJ will be a bigger loss then I expected, but hopefully Logan can step in (or we bring in a grad transfer PG). Next year we will be loaded. Every starter and backup at every position but PG will have at least 3 years with the program.

4 seniors, 3 juniors, a redshirt sophomore and a sophomore. That is the type of veteran team that wins championships.

 

[cincrulz11]

Well it's official now! With a statement game to end the 5 game stretch.

I am a happy fan and I was dead wrong about this team coming into the season and after 3 games. We are so far ahead of where I thought we were going to be.

These guys are playing well together and for the most part all seem to buy into their roles. The way Jenifer, Scott, and Brooks talk after games you can tell their focus is where coach wants it to be. The performance of Williams has been huge as well. Coach has done a great job...so far one of his best years...maybe his best if we can keep it rolling.

The defense is always so good. It doesn't matter who the players are, mick has a system defense that is dominant.


If he can find a way to get his offenses into the top 40 we are going to be a pain in the butt for our opponents every single season.

 

[waterhead]

The defense is always so good. It doesn't matter who the players are, mick has a system defense that is dominant.


If he can find a way to get his offenses into the top 40 we are going to be a pain in the butt for our opponents every single season.

A lot gets said about playing teams with 4 and 5 stars next to the players names. Most of that is based on offensive ability. But a good 5 star defense sure is a pretty good neutralizer.

I know Cronin has a great system but he could not be elite on D if he didn't recruit a good amount of elite athletes who can do the things he's asking. You look at guys like Jackson, Rubles, Evans, Clark, Williams, Johnson etc etc and you could probably put 5 stars next to their names on the defensive ability side. Look at Brooks and Nsoseme who are mobile bigs and can switch on guards. Logan could be one of the best defensive point guards walk through our doors in a long time.

Cronin needs players who can switch. He can hide one guy out there but if he has to hide more than that...it would start to break down.

 

[TheRealUC]

A lot gets said about playing teams with 4 and 5 stars next to the players names. Most of that is based on offensive ability. But a good 5 star defense sure is a pretty good neutralizer.

I know Cronin has a great system but he could not be elite on D if he didn't recruit a good amount of elite athletes who can do the things he's asking. You look at guys like Jackson, Rubles, Evans, Clark, Williams, Johnson etc etc and you could probably put 5 stars next to their names on the defensive ability side. Look at Brooks and Nsoseme who are mobile bigs and can switch on guards. Logan could be one of the best defensive point guards walk through our doors in a long time.

Cronin needs players who can switch. He can hide one guy out there but if he has to hide more than that...it would start to break down.

Good post. There was one possession, around the 12 minute mark i think, that was unbelievable. The quickness that every player in the 2-3 zone showed in getting to their spots and cutting off lanes was absurd. Ended in a contested 3-point heave as the clock expired. I was beyond impressed last night. Granted it was one game but i didn't think I was going to even get that with the group this year. Might be time to reconsider the knock on Cronin of player development.

 

[cincrulz11]

A lot gets said about playing teams with 4 and 5 stars next to the players names. Most of that is based on offensive ability. But a good 5 star defense sure is a pretty good neutralizer.

I know Cronin has a great system but he could not be elite on D if he didn't recruit a good amount of elite athletes who can do the things he's asking. You look at guys like Jackson, Rubles, Evans, Clark, Williams, Johnson etc etc and you could probably put 5 stars next to their names on the defensive ability side. Look at Brooks and Nsoseme who are mobile bigs and can switch on guards. Logan could be one of the best defensive point guards walk through our doors in a long time.

Cronin needs players who can switch. He can hide one guy out there but if he has to hide more than that...it would start to break down.

im not sure i agree. cronin's defenses are a sum of the parts over anything individual. the list of guys you named aren't considered elite athletes. maybe you could say it about jackson and williams, but definitely not the others.


the way he gets us to switch and rotate means they don't have to be elite athletes, they just have to understand the system. i think he does need a certain amount of athletic ability, but i dont think its that high of a threshold.


look at some of the super freaks in the game of basketball now. keith williams wouldn't stand out from an athletic standpoint on some of the elite teams because a lot of their guys are explosive like him. he's probably the best athlete we've had under cronin.

 

[waterhead]

I think of a guy like Biggie Mclain...he did not fit the mold of our system. He was I think a 4 star guy but looked like he had weights around his ankles. Sure it’s nice to get guys who are scorers AND athletic but every coach wants those. Cronin often has to settle for guys with limited skill but highly athletic. Mix in one or two scorers with limited athleticism and it starts to work.

 

[Robert]

I think any reasonable Bearcat fan should be pretty happy with being 10-2, especially with the way we dominated X and UCLA. My only concern is that there is as very real chance we end the season with no OOC wins over at-large tournament teams, as UCLA, Ole Miss, and Xavier look awfully bubbly. However, the AAC has been better than expected and we should have plenty of chances at quality wins in conference.

I have seen more than enough to believe our NCAA Tournament streak will continue, and I don't expect us to be on the bubble come selection Sunday.

 

[waterhead]

im not sure i agree. cronin's defenses are a sum of the parts over anything individual. the list of guys you named aren't considered elite athletes. maybe you could say it about jackson and williams, but definitely not the others.


the way he gets us to switch and rotate means they don't have to be elite athletes, they just have to understand the system. i think he does need a certain amount of athletic ability, but i dont think its that high of a threshold.


look at some of the super freaks in the game of basketball now. keith williams wouldn't stand out from an athletic standpoint on some of the elite teams because a lot of their guys are explosive like him. he's probably the best athlete we've had under cronin.

Sure. I think I over simplified but other things play in. How coach able are the players etc. are they willing to put in the work and effort that it takes etc. look at Diara. He can’t be bought in to the system right now. When he does he should be on the court.