Houston

[Queens_NYC]

Sunday, January 8th, 2023
3:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN

The Bearcats (10-5, [2-1 AAC], KenPom #72, NET #102) welcome Houston (15-1, [3-0 AAC], KenPom #1, NET #1) to town today in an attempt to snap a 6-game losing streak against the Cougars and earn one of the biggest wins in recent program history.

This year's Houston team may be the best of Kelvin Sampson's 9-year tenure. They currently rank #2 in KenPom's Adjusted Defense (their highest ranking ever under Sampson) and hold opponents to just 51 points/game on 33.1% shooting from the field.

They're led by 4th-year 6'1 guard Marcus Sasser (15.8 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.7 rpg), 3rd-year 6'5 wing Tramon Mark (10.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.8 apg), and a 6'8 5-star freshman forward Jarace Walker (9.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.9 apg).

The Cougars are coming off a 87-53 win over SMU that saw them lead 34-6 after 10 minutes. While they have been utterly dominant more often than not this season, their closest games have been a 71-65 home loss to KenPom #6 Alabama, a 49-44 home win over #73 Kent State, a 53-48 neutral site win over #10 St Mary's, and a recent 71-65 home win over #49 UCF.

The Bearcats are 9.5-point underdogs.

 

[sedziobs]

9.5 seems a little low. Torvik has Houston by 12.5.

Houston does almost everything well, but they give up a ton of threes and they don't get to the rim or the free throw line. Of course we also don't get to the rim or the free throw line. Although Houston is elite on the offensive glass, they're worse than us on the defensive glass. Might well chuck up threes and hope for the best.

 

[skyblade]

We did a lot right and are still going to go into the locker room trailing by 7. More or less matched them on the boards (Skillings went to work on the offensive glass), defense wasn't terrible and we mostly got good shots. Nolley and MAW carried the offense (6-6 from three, the rest of the team is 0-11 from three).

DDJ and Davenport really stand out as simply not being athletically gifted enough to play with Houston. DDJ has struggled on both ends against Houston's size. Houston has also gone after Davenport when they are on offense and coupled with Davenport missing (mostly good) shots, he's had a bad day. Skillings has also been attacked by Houston when he's defending.

We haven't really gotten anything on the interior. It seems like more than anything, Houston's size has prevented us from getting good entry passes, even when Lakhin/Ody gets open.

Houston is very good at finding and exploiting the mismatch when they are on offense and we don't have enough good defensive players, there's always a mismatch.

There are some issues that can be corrected, but it's hard to see us winning this.

 

[skyblade]

5 minutes into the second half and now the game is essentially over. Houston started really pushing us off the 3-point line on defense and went on a run.

Now we are starting to see old habits creep back in. Ball not moving, not getting back on defense. We managed to match Houston's energy for the first half, but it's hard o keep up for an entire game when your not in the habit of doing so. Houston off course never takes a play off and we are starting to take plays off.

 

[skyblade]

We discovered that we could feed the ball to Lakhin, but it was too little too late as we were down 20 points by that point.

Nolley for as good as he was in the first half, has been equally bad in the second. No points, poor defense, no rebounds and quite a few TO's.

 

[skyblade]

If you want to know who on this team is a liability on defense, ask Kelvin Sampson by looking at who they went after in mismatches. The answers are not surprising; DDJ and Davenport, with a fair amount of Nolley and Skillings thrown in as well.

 

[sedziobs]

I haven't looked at the stats yet, but what really stood out to me were turnovers. Way too many lazy live ball giveaways leading to transition buckets.

I thought we fought hard on the boards and forced them into a lot of tough midrange shots. Overall I was happy with the defense. The offense was good when we got it to Lakhin or found guards coming off down screens. We're not very good in iso or ball screens.

 

[skyblade]

I haven't looked at the stats yet, but what really stood out to me were turnovers. Way too many lazy live ball giveaways leading to transition buckets.

I thought we fought hard on the boards and forced them into a lot of tough midrange shots. Overall I was happy with the defense. The offense was good when we got it to Lakhin or found guards coming off down screens. We're not very good in iso or ball screens.

Yeah quite a few bad TO's. Houston doesn't take a second off, they were on every lazy pass we threw. They took 11 more shots than us and most of that was because they were +10 in TO's.

One other note is it seemed like Ody really struggled. He's not really built for physicality and getting pushed around got into his head. He had two wide open layup/dunk opportunities and both times tried to pump fake ghosts and gave the defense time to recover.

 

[TheLongHaul]

Absolutely criminal how many minutes Davenport got in the 2nd half compared to Skillings. Wes needs to answer to that. Unreal.

The lazy passes against a very good defense is also criminal. My grade school teams don't do that and MAW and DDJ did it several times. I like DDJ but he has laid some monster eggs when needed and today was one of them. Lazy defense, lazy passes, missed wide open looks.

Also can't believe the lack of effort to get the ball to Vik in the 1st half and the inability to get Nolley any looks in the 2nd.

Very frustrating. Talent and coaching level need to improve significantly, and quick.

 

[skyblade]

Absolutely criminal how many minutes Davenport got in the 2nd half compared to Skillings. Wes needs to answer to that. Unreal.

The lazy passes against a very good defense is also criminal. My grade school teams don't do that and MAW and DDJ did it several times. I like DDJ but he has laid some monster eggs when needed and today was one of them. Lazy defense, lazy passes, missed wide open looks.

Also can't believe the lack of effort to get the ball to Vik in the 1st half and the inability to get Nolley any looks in the 2nd.

Very frustrating. Talent and coaching level need to improve significantly, and quick.

DDJ just doesn't match up in size or athleticism with top teams. It's why I didn't really want him back this year. He's got a great mindset, but his body limits him. Hw was perhaps the best of our guys at feeding it inside to Lakhin in the second half.

Skillings stuggled on defense, Houston went after him (granted they also went after Davenport).

I think Houston started treating Nolley like a shooter (like Davenport), run him off the line and dare him to beat you some other way.

MAW showed his ability to get to the basket isn't a fluke. He was our only player who showed up scoring wise in both halves. He was our only player who was able to get to the rim and score. Plus he was pretty good on defense. One of the bright spots in the game, despite a few bad TO's (DDJ and Nolley each had 4, MAW had 3).

 

[TheLongHaul]

DDJ was a horrible matchup for Houston b/c of his size, and Houston hedges and traps off ball screens which is probably why they shouldn't have been running them with him.

They were targeting Skillings early but he adjusted and changed the momentum with his effort on the glass. Also had a very nice block on Defense. Davenport literally brought nothing to the game. There was absolutely no reason for him to garner those minutes.

They didn't even try to get Nolley open looks in the 2nd half. Their game plan going into the 2nd half was to get him the ball in the post, which is normally an ok strategy but not against Houston. And it failed, miserably.

MAW would have had a good game due to his scoring, but those turnovers were incredibly costly and were game changers. You cannot have that from your senior PG.

At one point in the game UC had a lineup of Davenport, Skillings, Reed, Ezikpe, and MAW. Against the #2 team in the country that was a lineup he went with. SMH.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Decent effort - especially on the boards.. Just got outclassed by a much better team. Needed Davenport to have a few of his 3s fall.

I think we can win the rest of our home games with how we played today.

 

[skyblade]

DDJ was a horrible matchup for Houston b/c of his size, and Houston hedges and traps off ball screens which is probably why they shouldn't have been running them with him.

They were targeting Skillings early but he adjusted and changed the momentum with his effort on the glass. Also had a very nice block on Defense. Davenport literally brought nothing to the game. There was absolutely no reason for him to garner those minutes.

They didn't even try to get Nolley open looks in the 2nd half. Their game plan going into the 2nd half was to get him the ball in the post, which is normally an ok strategy but not against Houston. And it failed, miserably.

MAW would have had a good game due to his scoring, but those turnovers were incredibly costly and were game changers. You cannot have that from your senior PG.

At one point in the game UC had a lineup of Davenport, Skillings, Reed, Ezikpe, and MAW. Against the #2 team in the country that was a lineup he went with. SMH.

In the post game press conference, Miller talked about holding guys accountable and I wonder if a few of the odd-ball line-ups were part of that tonight. If they were, all I can say is it's been a long time coming.

He can ask, he can demand, but until he holds them accountable everything else is just words. Nolley is probably the top of my list who need to learn to stop taking plays off (0 rebounds, among other things).

I know quite a few disagree with me, but Nolley really only excels as a shooter. Run him off the line and much like Davenport he disappears (as best). If you want to talk TO's, how about Nolley's 4 TO's, 0 assists and 0-4 from inside the 3 point arc. When we tried to run offense through him, it was a win for Houston.

Could MAW have played a bit better, yes. But he had a very good game and was one of our best players (along with Lakhin) tonight. His 3 TO's were still less than our other veteran leaders (DDJ and Nolley, both with 4).

Davenport led us in rebounds with 6 (tied with Lakhin), also had 3 assists and 0 TO's. He wasn't extraordinary by any means, but Skillings struggled on defense even in the second half. Davenport is at least a threat on offense and draws a lot more attention than Skillings.

 

[sedziobs]

I know quite a few disagree with me, but Nolley really only excels as a shooter. Run him off the line and much like Davenport he disappears (as best). If you want to talk TO's, how about Nolley's 4 TO's, 0 assists and 0-4 from inside the 3 point arc. When we tried to run offense through him, it was a win for Houston.

We'll never really know unless we play him in a point role. He's just not a very good wing player, partly because of his laziness. DDJ and MAW are relatively easy to get open looks for because you can start them in a corner, set a down screen, and they'll run hard off it and curl to set themselves up. That's what wings should be doing. Nolley doesn't. Modern basketball has been utilizing a horns set with down screens for a long time. We do it too, but our personnel is all mixed up so we have to live with small guards.

My idea has been to use Skillings and DDJ (or MAW) as the wings with Nolley at the point. It doesn't mean the offense runs through Nolley, just that he's the guy with the ball at the top, and the screens are coming from Ody/Lakhin. The offense can be focused on anyone. Screeners can even be the focus if they slip, pop, or roll. Gonzaga does that with Timme or look at Creighton with Kalkbrenner. We could make Lakhin the focus of our offense that way. I think that would be a better use of our skillsets. Nolley and Davenport aren't good wings.

Edit: Brannen actually liked to use the 5 man at the point in horns. He never had a great passing 5 though, so it usually just meant ball reversal. Loyola Chicago was really good using that system. The point is anyone can be at the top, it doesn't have to be a prototypical small quick ballhandling guard.

 

[sedziobs]

Yeah quite a few bad TO's. Houston doesn't take a second off, they were on every lazy pass we threw. They took 11 more shots than us and most of that was because they were +10 in TO's.

One other note is it seemed like Ody really struggled. He's not really built for physicality and getting pushed around got into his head. He had two wide open layup/dunk opportunities and both times tried to pump fake ghosts and gave the defense time to recover.

Wow, +10 is hard to recover from. It's impressive that we kept the game to 13 losing the turnover battle by that much. I figured we did decently on the boards, but was still surprised we actually outrebounded them by 6.

I did notice those Ody plays. Kalu got some time. He's a much stronger player, so he can at least hold his ground inside even if he can't do much else. Kalu had 3 rebounds in 9 minutes after sitting out the previous 4 games.

 

[skyblade]

Wow, +10 is hard to recover from. It's impressive that we kept the game to 13 losing the turnover battle by that much. I figured we did decently on the boards, but was still surprised we actually outrebounded them by 6.

I did notice those Ody plays. Kalu got some time. He's a much stronger player, so he can at least hold his ground inside even if he can't do much else. Kalu had 3 rebounds in 9 minutes after sitting out the previous 4 games.

We also got to the foul line 10 more times than them (mostly on the back of Lakhin, who was 8-10). Not a normal thing for this team.

Yeah, I thought Kalu held his own for the most part. Had one nice bucket, fought for rebounds, didn't stand out for poor defense. He had a couple bad plays (a TO and had the ball ripped out of his hands on a rebound), but overall looked better than he has in the past.

 

[TheLivingLegend]

Wes needs an identity... I have zero clue the direction of this program.

 

[sedziobs]

We also got to the foul line 10 more times than them (mostly on the back of Lakhin, who was 8-10). Not a normal thing for this team.

Normal for Houston though. They foul a lot and have one of the worst free throw rates in the country at #341 (we're only slightly better at #313). Their offense is really set up for jumpshots and putbacks rather than drives to the basket.

 

[TheLongHaul]

Wes needs an identity... I have zero clue the direction of this program.

the biggest problem was that he put himself in a huge hole bringing in all the UNCG players thinking they were even close enough to being good enough for UC. His success rate in the portal has been bad too. Should have held some scholarships and taken more lumps last year.

At least Jizzle and Griffith look good but they still need way more. Skillings will be a baller. Not sure about Reed. Still early but I have no idea what he brings to the table. It isn't shooting, athleticism, or height.

 

[TheLivingLegend]

the biggest problem was that he put himself in a huge hole bringing in all the UNCG players thinking they were even close enough to being good enough for UC. His success rate in the portal has been bad too. Should have held some scholarships and taken more lumps last year.

At least Jizzle and Griffith look good but they still need way more. Skillings will be a baller. Not sure about Reed. Still early but I have no idea what he brings to the table. It isn't shooting, athleticism, or height.

Agreed. We need a big land in this yrs transfer portal.

I fully expect several guys, with eligibility, on this roster to not be back next season.