Kenpom.com Projects Cats at 24-7/11-7 BEast

[bearcat jeff]

For those who enjoy this stuff. Hope he's right!

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Cincinnati

 

[Thegreatone]

I am kenpom

 

[ralph1950]

Cool!

 

[Not Guilty]

Count me as one of those that believes that the Pomeroy rankings (along with Sagarin Predictor and those of its ilk) are the best, publicly available ratings out there. They may not be politically correct, but their is a reason they closely mirror betting spreads, where significant money is risked.

Having said that, Ken switched how he did the rankings this year. He assigned a preseason ranking to each team that will slowly be eliminated as the season progresses (I believe January 26 is the day). That actually bodes well for UC as their ranking was in the 70s to start the season. Without that, they would be rated slightly higher. However, it is also still somewhat early in the year. There is a lot of basketball to be played. There is still some room for error (not including injuries) in the Pomeroy rankings. So we'll have to see how the season plays out.

Each team's page also gives the likelihood of certain win totals for the season based on the information so far this year. Hopefully UC is on the good side of 24 wins...

 

[thebeast]

if we really go 24-7 what kinda seed do you think we would get like a 5 or a 6?

 

[DontMissHim]

if we really go 24-7 what kinda seed do you think we would get like a 5 or a 6?

hmm..24-7 could get a 4 seed.

 

[Thegreatone]

hmm..24-7 could get a 4 seed.

Nope. If UC goes undefeated maybe a 4 seed. 7 L's puts us squarely on the bubble.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Nope. If UC goes undefeated maybe a 4 seed. 7 L's puts us squarely on the bubble.

No way they win 11 games in the BEast and are a bubble team. No way.

 

[Thegreatone]

That was my poor attempt at sarcasm. I was trying to make fun of everyone saying we need 12 wins to get in or w/e

 

[bearcat jeff]

That was my poor attempt at sarcasm. I was trying to make fun of everyone saying we need 12 wins to get in or w/e

Aaaaahhhhhhhhhh!

 

[TheLongHaul]

hmm..24-7 could get a 4 seed.

I would think 24-7 would be an 8 seed or so. Obviously depends on who they beat and who they lose to.

 

[ralph1950]

The Bearcats will be a lock for the NCAA with a 10-8 Big East record.

 

[JasonS]

I would think 24-7 would be an 8 seed or so. Obviously depends on who they beat and who they lose to.

24-7 will be better than an 8 seed. I would expect it to fall somewhere in the 4 seed to 6 seed range. As you said, it will depend on who UC beats but it also will depend on how UC loses. If their losses are all close games, they'll be given a little more credit by the selection committee. If they make a run in the Big East Tourney, that will help as well.

 

[psax889906]

If they make a run in the Big East Tourney, that will help as well.

Good point. The impact of the Big East tourney can't be understated. UC almost played their way into the NCAA tournament last year in the Big East tournament. If you win 3 games, you'll play yourself in or better your seed. If you lose in round one, not a very good last impression for the committee.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

24-7 with this schedule will probably land the Cats with a 6 or 7 seed. While I think they will be able to overcome the OOC schedule to get in, it will hurt them in seeding.

 

[bearcat jeff]

I'd say a 5-6 with a chance to play your way to a 3-4 in the Beast Tournament. Some will depend on the names of some of those 11 predicted victories. If they win 11 they'll have a couple quality wins. It'd be nice to see it come against the Villanova's, Pitt's, and Syracuses of the league. Win 11 and you'll get your share of quality wins against middle of the pack teams that may be on the bubble.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Cincinnati has 10 games against teams in the latest rpi top 17.