NIT Second Round: Hofstra

[Queens_NYC]

Saturday, March 18th, 2023
2:00 PM
David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex
ESPN+

The Bearcats (21-12 [11-7 AAC], NET #70, KenPom #53) continue their NIT journey this weekend at Hofstra (24-9 [16-2 CAA], NET #86, KenPom #86) who upset Rutgers on Tuesday night 88-86 in OT.

The Pride are led by school legend (his #10 jersey is retired) and NBA veteran Speedy Claxton who is finishing his 2nd season as head coach and was recently awarded CAA Coach of the Year.

Hofstra features 4th-year 6'4 guard and CAA Player of the Year Aaron Estrada who averages 20.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 4.1 apg. He is joined in the backcourt by All-CAA 2nd Team selection 4th-year 6'3 guard Tyler Thomas who averages 16.5 ppg and 3.7 rpg on 41% shooting from 3.

Hofstra is a solid offensive team that slashes 48/37/74. They don't draw many fouls (14.4/game) and, as a smaller team, don't rebound particularly well (-2.5 rebounding margin).

The winner of this game will go on to play the winner of Colorado vs Utah Valley who face off on Sunday night at 9:30 pm.

Saturday's game marks the first ever meeting between these two programs.

 

[sedziobs]

Hofstra is a team of extremes. They are a top 10 shooting team, and top 20 in field goal defense. They're top 40 in taking care of the ball, keeping opponents off the line, 2pt offense and defense, and 3pt offense and defense. You'd think they would be a top 5 team in the country looking at those stats. But they are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and are dead last in getting to the free throw line.

A big part of their shooting success is they convert over 49% from midrange. It's not really an inefficient shot for them, which makes it tough to gameplan. They have a below average assist rate, which indicates that they run a lot of iso sets for guys who can get to the rim or create separation and hit a jumpshot. They have four players who shoot over 60% at the rim and over 45% from midrange. Three of them shoot over 37% from beyond the arc, and two of them are 6'8. That's tough for anyone to guard. Based on the bad rebounding numbers, I'd guess they spread it out on offense and let those guys go to work.

This seems like a tough matchup for us. We have a lot of guys that struggle in iso defense. Hofstra just put up 1.23 points per possession on Rutgers top 10 defense. But they can obviously be beat - they've lost to several bad teams including North Carolina A&T, who was 15-17 at the rim with no shots blocked. St Mary's shut them down, holding them to 48 points. Purdue scored 85. Zach Edey had 18 rebounds in that game, Hofstra had 20 total. We don't have the defenders that St Mary's has, so we need to dominate the boards and get as many extra possessions and putbacks as possible.

 

[Queens_NYC]

-1.5

Hope the camera gets my good side behind the UC bench.

 

[sirthought]

Hofstra is a team of extremes. They are a top 10 shooting team, and top 20 in field goal defense. They're top 40 in taking care of the ball, keeping opponents off the line, 2pt offense and defense, and 3pt offense and defense. You'd think they would be a top 5 team in the country looking at those stats. But they are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and are dead last in getting to the free throw line.

A big part of their shooting success is they convert over 49% from midrange. It's not really an inefficient shot for them, which makes it tough to gameplan. They have a below average assist rate, which indicates that they run a lot of iso sets for guys who can get to the rim or create separation and hit a jumpshot. They have four players who shoot over 60% at the rim and over 45% from midrange. Three of them shoot over 37% from beyond the arc, and two of them are 6'8. That's tough for anyone to guard. Based on the bad rebounding numbers, I'd guess they spread it out on offense and let those guys go to work.

This seems like a tough matchup for us. We have a lot of guys that struggle in iso defense. Hofstra just put up 1.23 points per possession on Rutgers top 10 defense. But they can obviously be beat - they've lost to several bad teams including North Carolina A&T, who was 15-17 at the rim with no shots blocked. St Mary's shut them down, holding them to 48 points. Purdue scored 85. Zach Edey had 18 rebounds in that game, Hofstra had 20 total. We don't have the defenders that St Mary's has, so we need to dominate the boards and get as many extra possessions and putbacks as possible.

Nice to read your breakdown. Seems like an interesting challenge for sure.

 

[sirthought]

I'm hating that this game is on ESPN+. Second round of a tournament should be more easily accessible. Not sure what bars in Cincy are carrying the game for certain.

 

[sedziobs]

Great job on the glass so far. Let's see if they go after Davenport now.

 

[sirthought]

All these stupid low percentage fall away jumpers by Davenport and Nolley. There was still time to pass the ball for a better shot. That's poor coaching when its happening again and again.

 

[Bcatfollower]

All these stupid low percentage fall away jumpers by Davenport and Nolley. There was still time to pass the ball for a better shot. That's poor coaching when its happening again and again.

Yea, Miller can’t coach. It’s nothing new.

 

[sedziobs]

I hate running the offense through Nolley at the short corner. Almost always results in a midrange shot.

 

[Bcatfollower]

Kind of embarrassing. Miller’s lack of coaching once again showing itself with our lazy defense and street ball offense.

 

[sedziobs]

Hit and miss half. We did a great job on the boards and the PnR was working. Some bad offensive sets later in the half where we had MAW or Nolley trying to create from the baseline resulting in terrible shots or turnovers. And we lost track of shooters at the end of the half too.

We should win this game if we can keep trying to get rim looks for Ody and Lakhin instead of whatever short corner nonsense we're trying to run. The only time it ever makes sense to target the short corner is against a zone, which Hofstra is not running.

 

[sedziobs]

Great defense from Skillings on Estrada this half. Forced him into some really tough shots.

 

[sirthought]

I always liked Speedy Claxton in the NBA. Tough player.

 

[sedziobs]

We dominated the glass all game. Second half defense was really good. Player of the game for me is Skillings. He was on Estrada when we built our big lead. His length and rebounding is a huge asset if he can stick at SG.

 

[sirthought]

I'm thinking the game is starting to slow down for Skillings.

He just flies and can get out of control, but once he starts to follow details more he's going to really be a handful.

Looking forward to seeing how talented these income freshmen are and if this year's class and them can build something quickly.

 

[sedziobs]

I'm thinking the game is starting to slow down for Skillings.

He just flies and can get out of control, but once he starts to follow details more he's going to really be a handful.

Looking forward to seeing how talented these income freshmen are and if this year's class and them can build something quickly.

Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James are both major athleticism upgrades over DDJ and MAW at PG, and Griffith is also a major upgrade over Davenport. So even if MAW and Davenport stay, they'll have better athletes pushing them for minutes.

 

[Queens_NYC]

I had a blast at the game today. Great showing by the traveling UC fans. Skillings brought a large group. I got to bump fists with Cane Broome and Terry Nelson too.

The Hofstra crowd was surprisingly subdued for most of the game. Learned afterwards that students were on spring break but aside from one of their first half runs, the crowd was a nonfactor.

Sat next to a longtime Hofstra season ticket holder who knew little about UC but had me scared before tipoff with how he described the incredible team effort to beat Rutgers.

We did a great job to utilize our size and strength advantages to make Hofstra look like an outmatched mid-major.

As for the players:

Really gained an appreciation for Nolley's gamesmanship. Truly carried himself with a swagger and confidence that was unmatched by anyone else on the court. I shudder at the thought of what this season would've looked like without him.

DDJ was phenomenal. He was intent on making plays with the ball in his hands from the very jump. 9 assists and 1 turnover in 33 minutes is outstanding. His leadership will be missed next season.

Ody is very physically impressive in person. His finishing and dominance on the boards - especially in the first half - was outstanding. There is definitely a role for him on next season's team.

Vik played very composed and had some impressive finishes at the rim as well.

MAW had a pretty typical game. Was a stable presence on both ends for the most part.

Skillings had a great defensive showing - especially in the 2nd half. Our halftime adjustments on guarding their two best players was the difference maker of the second half. Skillings played a huge role in that.

 

[Seal Beach Bearcat]

Excellent analysis; and your optimism is very refreshing. I hate the nontournament stretch as much as anyone, but I am confident that the arrow for Wes and the team is pointing UP!

 

[sedziobs]

I got to bump fists with Cane Broome and Terry Nelson too.

Nice! Always cool to interact with Bearcats in person. I met Troy Caupain at a G League game several years back.

Good game summary. We've definitely got some pieces that can be part of a top 25 team.

 

[sedziobs]

We did what we needed to do on the glass and outrebounded them 42-27. We got a lot of quality rim looks, with Ody and Lakhin combining to go 12-14. Nolley got to the free throw line 12 times and DDJ had 9 assists. MAW was our only player with multiple threes. In general the offense was working except for a couple periods of stagnant sets - we shouldn't be putting up more than 20 midrange shots.

The defensive effort was great in the second half. Estrada scored 18, but he needed 24 shots. The length of Skillings really bothered him. Lakhin and Ody played solid interior defense, holding them to 50% at the rim. Good balanced game, we scored 1.12 points per possession and held them to 0.92.