Tourney

[huggsforlife]

At the end of the day, last nights loss is nothing but a loss in a road game to a Q1 team. We were picked to lose by 8 so while a win would have been huge, a loss is not a big deal. We beat Illinois which is a Q1 win. I saw Houston and WSU and while they are both good (especially Houston), we can beat them both-especially at home. Need Memphis to collect some Ws and hope that Illinois get some Ws. hate to say it but need X and Arkansas to win for our NET ranking. This team will be leaps and bounds ahead by end of year. Its hard to see now but i do believe Miller will be good. Have some good recruits coming in-3 in top 125 or something like that. Loss to Monmouth at home will hurt but they aren't bad. Lunardi had us as last four out. I know its early but that is putting a lot of faith in this team. Lets move on. Dont worry about X till next year. They will somehow trip and not make the tourney.

 

[sedziobs]

We're clinging to life on the outside of the bubble. Generally, a team with 2 bad losses has needed to be .500 in Q1/2 games. Right now we're 3-5. There are 5 Q1/2 games left on the schedule:

Memphis
Wichita St
@UCF
@ Houston
@ SMU

We'll have to go 4-1 in those games to be above .500.

Wichita St is just barely a Q2 game since they are ranked 75 in the NET. If they drop just one spot it's a Q3 game. We can't afford another bad loss, so either way we can only afford one more loss this season.

Basically we need to win out except for at Houston. Entering that outcome into Torvik's Teamcast puts us as the third team out. It's a steep uphill climb but not impossible if we play well in the final stretch of 8 games in 3 weeks.

 

[Queens_NYC]

We're clinging to life on the outside of the bubble. Generally, a team with 2 bad losses has needed to be .500 in Q1/2 games. Right now we're 3-5. There are 5 Q1/2 games left on the schedule:

Memphis
Wichita St
@UCF
@ Houston
@ SMU

We'll have to go 4-1 in those games to be above .500.

Wichita St is just barely a Q2 game since they are ranked 75 in the NET. If they drop just one spot it's a Q3 game. We can't afford another bad loss, so either way we can only afford one more loss this season.

Basically we need to win out except for at Houston. Entering that outcome into Torvik's Teamcast puts us as the third team out. It's a steep uphill climb but not impossible if we play well in the final stretch of 8 games in 3 weeks.

Odds are that even if we really turn around our play over this next month, we'll still likely lose more than one game, and will need to rely upon getting 2 wins in the AAC tourney to warrant bubble consideration on Selection Sunday.

The chances of us drawing Q1/Q2 games in the quarterfinals and semi-finals of the AAC tournament seem pretty good at this point.

If we don't beat Tulsa and Memphis though, this whole discussion could be thrown out the window a week from now.

 

[waterhead]

Odds are that even if we really turn around our play over this next month, we'll still likely lose more than one game, and will need to rely upon getting 2 wins in the AAC tourney to warrant bubble consideration on Selection Sunday.

The chances of us drawing Q1/Q2 games in the quarterfinals and semi-finals of the AAC tournament seem pretty good at this point.

If we don't beat Tulsa and Memphis though, this whole discussion could be thrown out the window a week from now.

We have only 2 games left where we are significant favorites. In 2 games we are significant dogs. The rest are between -3 and +2...not much more than a coin flip. Torvik has us losing 4 more games but we really can only maybe afford 1. 2 would be the most but would then need help in tourney for sure.

It's still a longshot for the most part. Two or three cold shooting nights could do us in.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Odds are that even if we really turn around our play over this next month, we'll still likely lose more than one game, and will need to rely upon getting 2 wins in the AAC tourney to warrant bubble consideration on Selection Sunday.

The chances of us drawing Q1/Q2 games in the quarterfinals and semi-finals of the AAC tournament seem pretty good at this point.

If we don't beat Tulsa and Memphis though, this whole discussion could be thrown out the window a week from now.

One week later, and our chances at an NCAA at-large bid are just about shot, so I thought I'd take a look at the AAC conference tournament.

It's hard to see Houston not winning the regular season championship, but if they lose to SMU at home and Memphis on the road (and maybe even @Wichita St), that could open up a lane for another team to win/share the league title and clinch the #1 seed.

If we want to have any chance of winning the AAC tournament, we'll most likely have to avoid playing Houston at all costs.

If Houston gets the #1 seed, then we'd avoid them (until the finals) by getting the #6 seed. If we go in 2-3 down the stretch (beat Temple and USF at home, and lose @UCF, @Houston, and @SMU), then we'd finish 9-9 and would actually have a good shot at falling to the 6 seed.

Obviously, having to play 4 games in 4 days to win the tournament would be less than ideal, but with our depth this year, it might not take as much of a toll on us as it would in years past.

 

[waterhead]

One week later, and our chances at an NCAA at-large bid are just about shot, so I thought I'd take a look at the AAC conference tournament.

It's hard to see Houston not winning the regular season championship, but if they lose to SMU at home and Memphis on the road (and maybe even @Wichita St), that could open up a lane for another team to win/share the league title and clinch the #1 seed.

If we want to have any chance of winning the AAC tournament, we'll most likely have to avoid playing Houston at all costs.

If Houston gets the #1 seed, then we'd avoid them (until the finals) by getting the #6 seed. If we go in 2-3 down the stretch (beat Temple and USF at home, and lose @UCF, @Houston, and @SMU), then we'd finish 9-9 and would actually have a good shot at falling to the 6 seed.

Obviously, having to play 4 games in 4 days to win the tournament would be less than ideal, but with our depth this year, it might not take as much of a toll on us as it would in years past.

At large is 0%. Torvik has us at 3% chance to make the tourney which means that is also 3% to win our conference tourney. If Newman is out that could go down.

 

[skyblade]

At large is 0%. Torvik has us at 3% chance to make the tourney which means that is also 3% to win our conference tourney. If Newman is out that could go down.

I don't think Newman is going to be out that long. Just a few games and maybe only one game to give his ankle time to heal up.