Trending the wrong way?

[Bearcat_NTS]

Have to say after the second half of the Xavier game, I was as optimistic as I've been probably since the win over #2 Syracuse. Cincinnati, made jump shots, crashed the glass and answered every Xavier late run. The fact that the game wasn't really even close at the end considering the horrible FT shooting and having an opponent go off, gave me hope that this might actually be the year. They scored an incredible 1.30 PPP and held Xavier to around 1.00 PPP in the second half. Sounds great.

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...

 

[#BearcatNation]

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...

Okay, so why are you only showing the bad games? You're leaving out any games where we scored well.

I'm not exactly thrilled with our offense away from home right now, but this all looks very misleading where you simply ignore the good games. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Shootout, our AdjO skyrocketed from somewhere in the 50s to 39. Since then, it has gone from 39th in the country to 47th. Despite a little regress, that's really not too much of a drop-off, and it's still Top 50, which is better than where we were right before the Shootout.

I guess my point here is that although we're not necessarily red-hot anymore, we're not getting worse either. I definitely would like to see a few blowouts in our final 5 games though, as our #23 KenPom is hurting us a little. Back into the teens before Selection Sunday would be ideal.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Okay, so why are you only showing the bad games? You're leaving out any games where we scored well.

I'm not exactly thrilled with our offense away from home right now, but this all looks very misleading where you simply ignore the good games. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Shootout, our AdjO skyrocketed from somewhere in the 50s to 39. Since then, it has gone from 39th in the country to 47th. Despite a little regress, that's really not too much of a drop-off, and it's still Top 50, which is better than where we were right before the Shootout.

I guess my point here is that although we're not necessarily red-hot anymore, we're not getting worse either. I definitely would like to see a few blowouts in our final 5 games though, as our #23 KenPom is hurting us a little. Back into the teens before Selection Sunday would be ideal.

Definitely agree with the last paragraph. Can't lose that edge. I feel like towards the end of the year we play every game like it has to be close, regardless of the opponent. We must keep up the aggressiveness. I think we only have 1 player averaging 30 minutes, and our starters besides Evans have been around for years, fatigue shouldn't be a factor for us. Our guys looked pretty fresh last night. Let's hope we haven't peaked yet bc it'd be a real shame to go out with a whimper. Caupain and Johnson are 2-6 in postseason play in their careers. That can't sit well with them.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Okay, so why are you only showing the bad games? You're leaving out any games where we scored well.

I'm not exactly thrilled with our offense away from home right now, but this all looks very misleading where you simply ignore the good games. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Shootout, our AdjO skyrocketed from somewhere in the 50s to 39. Since then, it has gone from 39th in the country to 47th. Despite a little regress, that's really not too much of a drop-off, and it's still Top 50, which is better than where we were right before the Shootout.

I guess my point here is that although we're not necessarily red-hot anymore, we're not getting worse either. I definitely would like to see a few blowouts in our final 5 games though, as our #23 KenPom is hurting us a little. Back into the teens before Selection Sunday would be ideal.

Cincinnati was #16 in the KenPom following the Xavier game. They have dropped 7 spots since. It's not solely because UC is playing poorly but more importantly that other teams are improving. As they say, if you aren't getting better...you are getting worse. Hard to argue that a drop in all the metrics in the last 3 weeks is not an indication that things are trending the wrong way.

 

[GarradJ21]

Cincinnati was #16 in the KenPom following the Xavier game. They have dropped 7 spots since. It's not solely because UC is playing poorly but more importantly that other teams are improving. As they say, if you aren't getting better...you are getting worse. Hard to argue that a drop in all the metrics in the last 3 weeks is not an indication that things are trending the wrong way.

Agreed. We are getting worse. Hopefully we don't show up to the rest of the games.

 

[TNBearcat3]

23-3. Lost to a very good SMU team, we aren't lighting it up offensively right now, but we are still winning. That's all that matters. Hustle is there, effort is there, shots will start to fall again.

 

[cincyguy13]

Have to say after the second half of the Xavier game, I was as optimistic as I've been probably since the win over #2 Syracuse. Cincinnati, made jump shots, crashed the glass and answered every Xavier late run. The fact that the game wasn't really even close at the end considering the horrible FT shooting and having an opponent go off, gave me hope that this might actually be the year. They scored an incredible 1.30 PPP and held Xavier to around 1.00 PPP in the second half. Sounds great.

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...

We definitely are not playing well right now but we got some time to get back on track. I think the only game we might lose is the uconn

 

[cincyguy13]

Honestly the only games that matter are the conference tourney and the NCAA. That's what everyone will remember.

 

[#BearcatNation]

Cincinnati was #16 in the KenPom following the Xavier game. They have dropped 7 spots since. It's not solely because UC is playing poorly but more importantly that other teams are improving. As they say, if you aren't getting better...you are getting worse. Hard to argue that a drop in all the metrics in the last 3 weeks is not an indication that things are trending the wrong way.

Keep in mind, I did say "a little regress". Point is, we've been anywhere from like 16-25 in KenPom all season. Do I want to start trending the other way? Absolutely. Would love to see the team start stepping on other team's throats. But the fact that our overall hasn't changed more than single-digits all year shows we've been very consistent. Which really isn't a bad thing.

 

[waterhead]

I agree. SMU was trending in the right direction until this last game which is not a trend in itself. We have been dropping because we aren't playing as well...Let alone better which we should all hope.

I don't know why people get upset with fans who want to see progress.

 

[justinhub2003]

Have to say after the second half of the Xavier game, I was as optimistic as I've been probably since the win over #2 Syracuse. Cincinnati, made jump shots, crashed the glass and answered every Xavier late run. The fact that the game wasn't really even close at the end considering the horrible FT shooting and having an opponent go off, gave me hope that this might actually be the year. They scored an incredible 1.30 PPP and held Xavier to around 1.00 PPP in the second half. Sounds great.

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...

Here is the difference:

In the games you showed for both seasons, they had very different W/L results.

3-1 VS 2-3


Also, not many teams shoot well on the road and 3 of those games were on the road and 2 of the 3 resulted in Wins. I don't care how we win, as long as we win.

lets Compare some other stats from those same stretch of games:
13-14 season:
2/02 USF: 7 assists/ 8 TO/ 50 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/06 UConn: 15 assists/ 9 TO/ 63 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/08 @SMU: 8 assists/ 19 TO/ 55 Points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/22 UofL: 8 assists/ 13 TO/ 57 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
3/01 @UConn: 7 assists/ 20 TO/ 45 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK

16-17 Season:
2/01 @Tulsa: 10 assists/ 11 TO/ 57 Points scored/ Leading Scorer TC
2/08 UCF: 19 Assists/ 5 TO/ 60 points scored/ Leading Scorer KW
2/12 @SMU: 15 Assists/ 12 TO/ 51 points scored/ Leading Scorer JE
2/15 @USF: 15 Assists/ 10 TO/ 68 Points scored/ Leading Scorer KJ

What this data shows us is that we are a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TEAM than 2013-2014. We share the ball much better ( 14.75 APG Vs 9 APG) and protect the ball much better (9.5 TOpg Vs 13.8 TOPG). Add in that in 2013-14 season SK lead us in scorer in every single one of those games where as this season, we are far more balanced, with a different leading scorer in every one of the games you cherry picked from.

Even worse, the games you cherry picked from 13-14, 3 of the 5 were HOME games. Like we performed that bad at HOME that year!! Where as the games you cherry picked from 16-17, only 1 of those games were home games and we just so happened to run into a guy who is 7'6. You also left out the 2 other homes we played after Xavier which didn't fit your narrative so you excluded them.

Like the only things I am finding from your numbers is: We perform on the road this year as good or better than we did at home in 13-14. That we are much more balanced offensively. That we share the ball and protect the ball better and that we are winning games away from home even when are performing no so good.

 

[Garybearcat]

This team is clearly better than the team from last year, the team from the year before, or any of Mick's teams. I don't need a bunch of meaningless stats to tell me different. Only one stat matters 23-3. We could lose in the first round, but we are positioned to do well in tourney. We can score at multiple positions with multiple players. We can also play lock down defense. The most important difference is our ability to limit our turnovers in tight game. We will see in March.

 

[rogerOH]

I would love Kenyon come back to town and spend a week or 2 with the team, he would get this team out of this phase,slump,rut or whatever it is.

 

[waterhead]

Here is the difference:

In the games you showed for both seasons, they had very different W/L results.

3-1 VS 2-3


Also, not many teams shoot well on the road and 3 of those games were on the road and 2 of the 3 resulted in Wins. I don't care how we win, as long as we win.

lets Compare some other stats from those same stretch of games:
13-14 season:
2/02 USF: 7 assists/ 8 TO/ 50 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/06 UConn: 15 assists/ 9 TO/ 63 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/08 @SMU: 8 assists/ 19 TO/ 55 Points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/22 UofL: 8 assists/ 13 TO/ 57 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
3/01 @UConn: 7 assists/ 20 TO/ 45 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK

16-17 Season:
2/01 @Tulsa: 10 assists/ 11 TO/ 57 Points scored/ Leading Scorer TC
2/08 UCF: 19 Assists/ 5 TO/ 60 points scored/ Leading Scorer KW
2/12 @SMU: 15 Assists/ 12 TO/ 51 points scored/ Leading Scorer JE
2/15 @USF: 15 Assists/ 10 TO/ 68 Points scored/ Leading Scorer KJ

What this data shows us is that we are a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TEAM than 2013-2014. We share the ball much better ( 14.75 APG Vs 9 APG) and protect the ball much better (9.5 TOpg Vs 13.8 TOPG). Add in that in 2013-14 season SK lead us in scorer in every single one of those games where as this season, we are far more balanced, with a different leading scorer in every one of the games you cherry picked from.

Even worse, the games you cherry picked from 13-14, 3 of the 5 were HOME games. Like we performed that bad at HOME that year!! Where as the games you cherry picked from 16-17, only 1 of those games were home games and we just so happened to run into a guy who is 7'6. You also left out the 2 other homes we played after Xavier which didn't fit your narrative so you excluded them.

Like the only things I am finding from your numbers is: We perform on the road this year as good or better than we did at home in 13-14. That we are much more balanced offensively. That we share the ball and protect the ball better and that we are winning games away from home even when are performing no so good.

I just looked into road performance on team rankings recently. Overall games we were 55th in shooting percentage. Out of all the teams in the top 55 only 3 teams shot more than double figures worse on the road compared to home . We were one of them. But there was not one team in the top 183 of overall percentage that shot as low as we do on the road. 40 percent. The year before we shot 39 percent.

This is not a coincidence obviously. Our versatility hasn't helped much on the road in terms of shooting. Obviously we are doing something right winning games But we need to do better shooting on the road because no tourney games will be in our arena.

 

[indydoug]

Have to say after the second half of the Xavier game, I was as optimistic as I've been probably since the win over #2 Syracuse. Cincinnati, made jump shots, crashed the glass and answered every Xavier late run. The fact that the game wasn't really even close at the end considering the horrible FT shooting and having an opponent go off, gave me hope that this might actually be the year. They scored an incredible 1.30 PPP and held Xavier to around 1.00 PPP in the second half. Sounds great.

Since then? Not so good. Particularly TERRIBLE away from home.

2/01 Tulsa: 0.97 PPP, 44.4 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
2/08 UCF: 0.98 PPP, 38.9 2PT%, 31.0 3PT%
2/12 SMU: 0.94 PPP, 35.3 2PT%, 34.4 3PT%
2/15 USF: 1.08 PPP, 46.3 2PT%, 33.3 3PT%

Looks familiar?? Here are the numbers from the 2013-14 down the stretch of the season:

2/02 USF: 0.94 PPP, 38.2 2PT%, 23.5 3PT%
2/06 UConn: 1.01 PPP, 50.0 2PT%, 37.5 3PT%
2/08 SMU: 0.86 PPP, 54.2 2PT%, 16.7 3PT%
2/22 UofL: 0.90 PPP, 30.6 2PT%, 25.0 3PT%
3/01 UConn: 0.70 PPP, 25.0 2PT%, 30.0 3PT%


Hopefully the season doesn't end the same way...

And it begins anew....

 

[justinhub2003]

I just looked into road performance on team rankings recently. Overall games we were 55th in shooting percentage. Out of all the teams in the top 55 only 3 teams shot more than double figures worse on the road compared to home . We were one of them. But there was not one team in the top 183 of overall percentage that shot as low as we do on the road. 40 percent. The year before we shot 39 percent.

This is not a coincidence obviously. Our versatility hasn't helped much on the road in terms of shooting. Obviously we are doing something right winning games But we need to do better shooting on the road because no tourney games will be in our arena.

The Thing is; our Defense travels no matter where we go. So even on the road, if were having trouble shooting, we can still win.


I mean, pretty much, this is what we've always been missing. THE ABILITY TO WIN IN MULTIPLE WAYS. We are experts In the rock fights and if you wanna get up and down with us, we can do that just as well. Thats what you want in the tourney: Versatility and Balance.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

The Thing is; our Defense travels no matter where we go. So even on the road, if were having trouble shooting, we can still win.


I mean, pretty much, this is what we've always been missing. THE ABILITY TO WIN IN MULTIPLE WAYS. We are experts In the rock fights and if you wanna get up and down with us, we can do that just as well. Thats what you want in the tourney: Versatility and Balance.

The teams in the NCAA Tournament haven't seen us before either. That can be an advantage. This team is much less like the SK team and more like the teams that beat Mizzou and Texas imo. And those opponents were not prepared to handle us at all.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Here is the difference:

In the games you showed for both seasons, they had very different W/L results.

3-1 VS 2-3


Also, not many teams shoot well on the road and 3 of those games were on the road and 2 of the 3 resulted in Wins. I don't care how we win, as long as we win.

lets Compare some other stats from those same stretch of games:
13-14 season:
2/02 USF: 7 assists/ 8 TO/ 50 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/06 UConn: 15 assists/ 9 TO/ 63 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/08 @SMU: 8 assists/ 19 TO/ 55 Points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
2/22 UofL: 8 assists/ 13 TO/ 57 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK
3/01 @UConn: 7 assists/ 20 TO/ 45 points scored/ Leading Scorer SK

16-17 Season:
2/01 @Tulsa: 10 assists/ 11 TO/ 57 Points scored/ Leading Scorer TC
2/08 UCF: 19 Assists/ 5 TO/ 60 points scored/ Leading Scorer KW
2/12 @SMU: 15 Assists/ 12 TO/ 51 points scored/ Leading Scorer JE
2/15 @USF: 15 Assists/ 10 TO/ 68 Points scored/ Leading Scorer KJ

What this data shows us is that we are a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TEAM than 2013-2014. We share the ball much better ( 14.75 APG Vs 9 APG) and protect the ball much better (9.5 TOpg Vs 13.8 TOPG). Add in that in 2013-14 season SK lead us in scorer in every single one of those games where as this season, we are far more balanced, with a different leading scorer in every one of the games you cherry picked from.

Even worse, the games you cherry picked from 13-14, 3 of the 5 were HOME games. Like we performed that bad at HOME that year!! Where as the games you cherry picked from 16-17, only 1 of those games were home games and we just so happened to run into a guy who is 7'6. You also left out the 2 other homes we played after Xavier which didn't fit your narrative so you excluded them.

Like the only things I am finding from your numbers is: We perform on the road this year as good or better than we did at home in 13-14. That we are much more balanced offensively. That we share the ball and protect the ball better and that we are winning games away from home even when are performing no so good.

Wow. Well done with the spin. Those 5 games in 2013-14 were against MUCH BETTER competition. The fact that we can't even break 1 PPP against Tulsa and UCF (and barely against USF) is extremely concerning. The shooting has fallen off a cliff...evidence by all the games being below 35% from 3PT. We aren't playing well offensively at all, we are 3rd in our own conference. I think Jacob said it, but Mick loves for every game down the stretch of a season to be a grind-it-out win. That style will not work in the NCAA's. I guarantee that. We are looking at another early exit if we don't start shooting better and running offense. Watching UC completely give up on running sets late in the SMU game was all too familiar for me.

I felt quite confident after the Xavier game. That's what a high major college game should look like. I don't know if the team is wearing down or is in a funk but I am not optimistic any longer...

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

The Thing is; our Defense travels no matter where we go. So even on the road, if were having trouble shooting, we can still win.


I mean, pretty much, this is what we've always been missing. THE ABILITY TO WIN IN MULTIPLE WAYS. We are experts In the rock fights and if you wanna get up and down with us, we can do that just as well. Thats what you want in the tourney: Versatility and Balance.

We've always been able to win in "up and down games." Go back and look at old game threads, you guys always say the same things after we actually play in a game with some rhythm and tempo. Year after year. The problem is the refusal from the bald guys on the sidelines to play those types of games.

 

[justinhub2003]

We've always been able to win in "up and down games." Go back and look at old game threads, you guys always say the same things after we actually play in a game with some rhythm and tempo. Year after year. The problem is the refusal from the bald guys on the sidelines to play those types of games.

Dude in most of Mick's teams, we couldn't score 90 if the other team let us.

Its funny; Mick wanted to mirror his offense after Notre Dame's and ND's is always top 10 in Assist to TO ratio every year. 1 year after trying the new approach we are 3rd in Assist to TO ratio and ND is second.

I'd call that making a plan and executing it. You can also call it good coaching