UC @ New Mexico

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bearcat jeff

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Obviously the first thing that comes to mind is the size New Mexico has inside and if UC will be able to do against to defend and attack it. Today will be a classic battle of styles.

People are talking about the bulk inside but the Lobos best player may well be Kendall Williams who reminds me a bit of SK in terms of contribution. Williams averages 20.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6 apg and 1.3 stl per game. He hits just shy of 90% from the ft line and 48% from the three. When you have capable inside players like Bairstow and Kirk, who themselves average over 38 ppg combined, and a good guard, it is lethal offensively.

Still New Mexico is a bit of a mystery. They gave up 93 points in a home game to Charleston Southern, were taken to overtime and gave up 94 points by UAB and lost to UMass while giving up 81. Umass held the Lobos to 65 points but the common thread is NM has a tendancy to give up points.

They turn the ball over 12.4 times a game and this is where UC can use it's quickness and pressure defense to negate the New Mexico size advantage and get some easy baskets. The Lobos have 3 guys that average over 30 minutes a game and one who averages over 28. This is the kind of team Mick's new philosophy is made for. If UC's rotation can handle the thin air of The Pit this could work to the Bearcats favor in the last ten minutes of a close game.

As a team New Mexico shoots 74% from the ft line, and with Williams accuracy outside the arc, tired legs may make normally accurate shots fall just short. The ideal to leave for the game a day early and practice was a good one and will at least give the Cats some time to acclimate before tip off.

Keys to the game for me:

1) Be able to guard Bairstow and Kirk without doubling - If you sag down on Williams he will make you pay. Jackson, Rubles, Lawrence (and I think Nyarsuk will see more time today) have to be able to hold their own. If help comes it has to quick and recovery has to be strong.

2) Contain Williams - Kendall Williams shoots just shy of 10 ft's a game and as I mentioned earlier, he makes them. At 50% from the field, .896% from the ft line, and 48% from the three he is a weapon. I look for SK, Guyn and Johnson to all get a crack at him. Getting back and half court defense will be big in this game and in limiting Kendall Williams.

3) Guard the 3 point line - New Mexico has four players who have shot over 20 three pointers this season, including the 7 ft., 245 lb. Alex Kirk. Though Williams is by far the most accurate it forces you to respect the line and extend your defense.

4) Force turnovers - UC's struggles to put the ball in the basket at times makes turnovers even more important in this game. With the size of the Lobos upfront there may not be as many offensive rebound opportunites. The Bearcats have to force turnovers and they have to convert either at the basket or on the line.

5) Quality minutes from the low post - This is the type of team DK can be a plus against. As the only player with some bulk his ability to paly the post with Jackson or Rubles at the 4 could be huge today.

6) Jackson/Rubles have to stay out of foul trouble - Just play smart, hard, sound defense. This isn't Kennesaw St. anymore and the team needs you.

7) Turn the low post battle to your advantage - Jackson and Rubles and use their quickness to an advantage today. Attack the basket and get Bairstow and Kirk off the floor with foul trouble.

8) Make shots - UC has to be able to score to win this game because most likely New Mexico will. Players beside SK have to make shots. This is a game that Guyn, Thomas and Sanders have to earn their keep.

9) Sean has to be Sean - UC will need his leadership and a "Sean Kilpatrick type game" for UC to win. He can't force the action but He needs to stop runs and scoring droughts when UC needs points in critical situations.

10) Rebound - The Bearcats can't give away second chance points or kick outs after missed baskets by New Mexico. Lawrence, Jackson, Rubles and Nyarsuk can't get pushed around under the basket.

Prediction: I picked UC to lose earlier this season, but I'm not today. It will be a close game and one of runs I think but in the end I'm picking Cincinnati to win by 6 with a final score of 74-68. It will not be easy but the Bearcats will be motivated to prove themselves and I think they will. I like our home teams chance. Bearcats get the early big win.
 
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Man, that is a great preview! I agree with pretty much all you're points. My big concerns are obviously NM size. We have to be able to rebound to make this a close game. I can see us struggling to score unless we play like the 2nd half team against Upstate. If we get movement and pass like we can our athleticism can make up for their size.

We also need to be able to get fouled early and often. We need to get their starters in foul trouble and we have been shooting ft's well hopefully that continues. We got to be strong around the rim and not avoid contact.

On defense we can not over play and be scrambling. This NM team will make us pay.

If we are going to win this has to be a complete team effort and everyone is going to have to contribute. With that being said we are going to need SK to take the game over at some point, he is our MVP and needs to continue shooting like he has been. I would like to see him get fouled more. It seems like the past few games he's stayed around the 3 point line more and settling for that.

My head says we lose this game but obviously my heart hopes we win.I think with NM's size, experience, and the atmosphere of the Pit will be too mas. I will say 74-63 NM wins.

What channel is this game on?!!
 
Nice run down...I can't argue with any of that. I am of the opinion when we are on the road we should rely less on outside shooting and more on driving. At home we have the advantage of being acclimated (sp) to the surroundings and depth perception on outside shots looks familiar. When you go on the road that all changes.

Apparently there is an altitude change so I think we could see a lot of substitutions today and a few less minutes from our minute hogs. Especially if we get in foul trouble down low. I don't see this (substitutions) as a bad thing for us because we have quality depth other than on the block. I wonder if the high scoring games is due to everyone getting tired quickly. I can see all players getting some decent minutes today with the possible exception of JDIII since nobody seems to know what's going on there.
 
Here is a nice little video of "The Pit"..the walk down to the court for the players is pretty crazy!


[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIB8M5UT_Ic[/ame]
 
Nice run down...I can't argue with any of that. I am of the opinion when we are on the road we should rely less on outside shooting and more on driving. At home we have the advantage of being acclimated (sp) to the surroundings and depth perception on outside shots looks familiar. When you go on the road that all changes.

Apparently there is an altitude change so I think we could see a lot of substitutions today and a few less minutes from our minute hogs. Especially if we get in foul trouble down low. I don't see this (substitutions) as a bad thing for us because we have quality depth other than on the block. I wonder if the high scoring games is due to everyone getting tired quickly. I can see all players getting some decent minutes today with the possible exception of JDIII since nobody seems to know what's going on there.

Much of the JD3 situation is due to him not participating in practice because of his families situation because of losing their home in the blaze.
 
feel like i should pay for a preview like that...thanks bearcat jeff...i was thinking Big Dave would see more minutes today as well just due to his size...but i really want to see UC use their speed and wear down the big men...i think Sanders will have a pivotal role today guarding Williams...i know Williams is a guard, but Sanders has shown the ability to cover a scorer, in my opinion...excited for this game as it will be a great test...

Go Bearcats!
 
Today is a barometer game for this team.

1. Cincinnati is currently #25 in points per possession, we will see if that efficiency was just a product of the schedule.

2. Cincinnati is currently #3 in least points allowed per possession, we will see if that efficiency was also just a product of the schedule. Also #4 in points allowed per game.
 
Here is a good link that breaks down the match up: Team Rankings

Something will have to give on the glass. Cincinnati is good offensive rebounding team at 45.4%, while New Mexico is a good defensive rebounding team getting 73.4%. I fear UC will not get many second chance points because of the size.

New Mexico doesn't force many turnovers at just 13.4% while Cincinnati forces a turnover on 23.3% of possessions. UC simply cannot give the ball away, this has to be the major advantage in the game.


I hope Mick sticks to what UC is good at (play small, pressing all game), rather than trying to defend what UNM (going big/slow). New Mexico isn't a very great defensive team, Cincinnati will have to get to 70 to win this one.

I predict the Cats will have a good showing but come up a bit short trying to defend the big guys inside. The score won't indicate how good of a game it is.

New Mexico 73
Cincinnati 62
 
I agree with others that we need to play to our strengths instead of trying to offset theirs. Their 3 stars are going to get theirs -- however, we can attack their bigs and try to get them in foul trouble. I also think, regardless of the elevation, we have enough depth and athleticism to wear them down with our press. New Mexico isn't a great defensive team, so that's a plus as well.

I hate to say it, but I'm leaning towards New Mexico winning... but it will be a close one. It would be nice if we had a road game or two to warm up for this. Literally throwing our freshmen in "the Pit" with no road game experience is going to be brutal.
 
6) Jackson/Rubles have to stay out of foul trouble - Just play smart, hard, sound defense. This isn't Kennesaw St. anymore and the team needs you.

7) Turn the low post battle to your advantage - Jackson and Rubles and use their quickness to an advantage today. Attack the basket and get Bairstow and Kirk off the floor with foul trouble.

These are the two biggest keys right here. Bairstow was in foul trouble a lot during the Charleston Classic and they aren't nearly the same team with him on the bench. Need to keep attacking even if there are some early blocked shots, because New Mexico isn't very deep.
 
Offensively the team does not look great in half-court. Reverting to the pass around the perimeter and stand around offense.
 
At this point, I'd say New Mexico wins by 15-20. The offense has been awful with SK on the bench.
 
Definitely looks like their first road game; team playing timid. Offense looks like they don't know what to do. NM defense is also much quicker than I anticipated.
 


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