bearcat jeff
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Obviously the first thing that comes to mind is the size New Mexico has inside and if UC will be able to do against to defend and attack it. Today will be a classic battle of styles.
People are talking about the bulk inside but the Lobos best player may well be Kendall Williams who reminds me a bit of SK in terms of contribution. Williams averages 20.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6 apg and 1.3 stl per game. He hits just shy of 90% from the ft line and 48% from the three. When you have capable inside players like Bairstow and Kirk, who themselves average over 38 ppg combined, and a good guard, it is lethal offensively.
Still New Mexico is a bit of a mystery. They gave up 93 points in a home game to Charleston Southern, were taken to overtime and gave up 94 points by UAB and lost to UMass while giving up 81. Umass held the Lobos to 65 points but the common thread is NM has a tendancy to give up points.
They turn the ball over 12.4 times a game and this is where UC can use it's quickness and pressure defense to negate the New Mexico size advantage and get some easy baskets. The Lobos have 3 guys that average over 30 minutes a game and one who averages over 28. This is the kind of team Mick's new philosophy is made for. If UC's rotation can handle the thin air of The Pit this could work to the Bearcats favor in the last ten minutes of a close game.
As a team New Mexico shoots 74% from the ft line, and with Williams accuracy outside the arc, tired legs may make normally accurate shots fall just short. The ideal to leave for the game a day early and practice was a good one and will at least give the Cats some time to acclimate before tip off.
Keys to the game for me:
1) Be able to guard Bairstow and Kirk without doubling - If you sag down on Williams he will make you pay. Jackson, Rubles, Lawrence (and I think Nyarsuk will see more time today) have to be able to hold their own. If help comes it has to quick and recovery has to be strong.
2) Contain Williams - Kendall Williams shoots just shy of 10 ft's a game and as I mentioned earlier, he makes them. At 50% from the field, .896% from the ft line, and 48% from the three he is a weapon. I look for SK, Guyn and Johnson to all get a crack at him. Getting back and half court defense will be big in this game and in limiting Kendall Williams.
3) Guard the 3 point line - New Mexico has four players who have shot over 20 three pointers this season, including the 7 ft., 245 lb. Alex Kirk. Though Williams is by far the most accurate it forces you to respect the line and extend your defense.
4) Force turnovers - UC's struggles to put the ball in the basket at times makes turnovers even more important in this game. With the size of the Lobos upfront there may not be as many offensive rebound opportunites. The Bearcats have to force turnovers and they have to convert either at the basket or on the line.
5) Quality minutes from the low post - This is the type of team DK can be a plus against. As the only player with some bulk his ability to paly the post with Jackson or Rubles at the 4 could be huge today.
6) Jackson/Rubles have to stay out of foul trouble - Just play smart, hard, sound defense. This isn't Kennesaw St. anymore and the team needs you.
7) Turn the low post battle to your advantage - Jackson and Rubles and use their quickness to an advantage today. Attack the basket and get Bairstow and Kirk off the floor with foul trouble.
8) Make shots - UC has to be able to score to win this game because most likely New Mexico will. Players beside SK have to make shots. This is a game that Guyn, Thomas and Sanders have to earn their keep.
9) Sean has to be Sean - UC will need his leadership and a "Sean Kilpatrick type game" for UC to win. He can't force the action but He needs to stop runs and scoring droughts when UC needs points in critical situations.
10) Rebound - The Bearcats can't give away second chance points or kick outs after missed baskets by New Mexico. Lawrence, Jackson, Rubles and Nyarsuk can't get pushed around under the basket.
Prediction: I picked UC to lose earlier this season, but I'm not today. It will be a close game and one of runs I think but in the end I'm picking Cincinnati to win by 6 with a final score of 74-68. It will not be easy but the Bearcats will be motivated to prove themselves and I think they will. I like our home teams chance. Bearcats get the early big win.
People are talking about the bulk inside but the Lobos best player may well be Kendall Williams who reminds me a bit of SK in terms of contribution. Williams averages 20.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 6 apg and 1.3 stl per game. He hits just shy of 90% from the ft line and 48% from the three. When you have capable inside players like Bairstow and Kirk, who themselves average over 38 ppg combined, and a good guard, it is lethal offensively.
Still New Mexico is a bit of a mystery. They gave up 93 points in a home game to Charleston Southern, were taken to overtime and gave up 94 points by UAB and lost to UMass while giving up 81. Umass held the Lobos to 65 points but the common thread is NM has a tendancy to give up points.
They turn the ball over 12.4 times a game and this is where UC can use it's quickness and pressure defense to negate the New Mexico size advantage and get some easy baskets. The Lobos have 3 guys that average over 30 minutes a game and one who averages over 28. This is the kind of team Mick's new philosophy is made for. If UC's rotation can handle the thin air of The Pit this could work to the Bearcats favor in the last ten minutes of a close game.
As a team New Mexico shoots 74% from the ft line, and with Williams accuracy outside the arc, tired legs may make normally accurate shots fall just short. The ideal to leave for the game a day early and practice was a good one and will at least give the Cats some time to acclimate before tip off.
Keys to the game for me:
1) Be able to guard Bairstow and Kirk without doubling - If you sag down on Williams he will make you pay. Jackson, Rubles, Lawrence (and I think Nyarsuk will see more time today) have to be able to hold their own. If help comes it has to quick and recovery has to be strong.
2) Contain Williams - Kendall Williams shoots just shy of 10 ft's a game and as I mentioned earlier, he makes them. At 50% from the field, .896% from the ft line, and 48% from the three he is a weapon. I look for SK, Guyn and Johnson to all get a crack at him. Getting back and half court defense will be big in this game and in limiting Kendall Williams.
3) Guard the 3 point line - New Mexico has four players who have shot over 20 three pointers this season, including the 7 ft., 245 lb. Alex Kirk. Though Williams is by far the most accurate it forces you to respect the line and extend your defense.
4) Force turnovers - UC's struggles to put the ball in the basket at times makes turnovers even more important in this game. With the size of the Lobos upfront there may not be as many offensive rebound opportunites. The Bearcats have to force turnovers and they have to convert either at the basket or on the line.
5) Quality minutes from the low post - This is the type of team DK can be a plus against. As the only player with some bulk his ability to paly the post with Jackson or Rubles at the 4 could be huge today.
6) Jackson/Rubles have to stay out of foul trouble - Just play smart, hard, sound defense. This isn't Kennesaw St. anymore and the team needs you.
7) Turn the low post battle to your advantage - Jackson and Rubles and use their quickness to an advantage today. Attack the basket and get Bairstow and Kirk off the floor with foul trouble.
8) Make shots - UC has to be able to score to win this game because most likely New Mexico will. Players beside SK have to make shots. This is a game that Guyn, Thomas and Sanders have to earn their keep.
9) Sean has to be Sean - UC will need his leadership and a "Sean Kilpatrick type game" for UC to win. He can't force the action but He needs to stop runs and scoring droughts when UC needs points in critical situations.
10) Rebound - The Bearcats can't give away second chance points or kick outs after missed baskets by New Mexico. Lawrence, Jackson, Rubles and Nyarsuk can't get pushed around under the basket.
Prediction: I picked UC to lose earlier this season, but I'm not today. It will be a close game and one of runs I think but in the end I'm picking Cincinnati to win by 6 with a final score of 74-68. It will not be easy but the Bearcats will be motivated to prove themselves and I think they will. I like our home teams chance. Bearcats get the early big win.
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