UCLA

[Queens_NYC]

Wed. Dec 19, 2018 / 9 p.m.
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN2

UCLA (7-3, KenPom #50) is coming off a 74-72 home loss to Belmont but still boasts the most talented roster we'll face this regular season (6 Top 50 recruits) highlighted by 2019 NBA Draft prospects Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands.

They're one of the better rebounding teams in the country (currently 27th) and one of the best shot blocking teams in the country (currently 14th) mostly due to the play of 7-1 freshman Moses Brown (shout out to Molloy!) who has a similar skill set to a very familiar foe, Tacko Fall.

Brown is a horrendous FT shooter (14 for 37 on the season) which brings UCLA's team average down to 61% (340th nationally).

This will be UCLA's first true road game of the season, as they've lost decisively to Michigan State and UNC in their only other games away from Pauley Pavilion.

 

[Cin City]

Come out angry and beat them down please. Build a 10-15 point lead and strangle them. Make them uncomfortable. UC 72-58

 

[justinhub2003]

We should be Able to out tough them. But they are coming off a loss too so it won't be easy.


Also, while I think UC is better Overall, and has a better coach and a better culture, I don't feel 100% comfortable about this game.

Its alwayys hard to feel comfortable when the other team has so much talent. Wilkes, Hands, & brown are all 5 star guys.

But that said, they don't have a single Senior on the team and just 1 JR.


Kinda sucks that the students will be off campus on break for this game. But you can get student section tickets for 30 bucks.

Also this is the first true road game for a team who lacks any real experience.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

A win against the bruins and finishing this 5 game stretch at 4-1 would exceed my expectations. I honestly had this team at 3-2 over this span. The bruins will have to bring their A game to best us at home. While they have higher rated players we do not lose at home often. Our talent may not be as good but we do not best ourselves often. I think we win this game.

 

[icehole3]

Whatever they've done to 5th 3rd it seems louder than usual. I mean very very loud. Don't think UCLA will be able to deal with it. I think it'll be a beat down 12-15 point win. Hopefully Moore, Johnson and Frederick get 12+ mins each.

 

[cincycpaw]

A win against the bruins and finishing this 5 game stretch at 4-1 would exceed my expectations. I honestly had this team at 3-2 over this span. The bruins will have to bring their A game to best us at home. While they have higher rated players we do not lose at home often. Our talent may not be as good but we do not best ourselves often. I think we win this game.

I agree that 4-1 over this stretch is better than I had even hoped. I was a little disappointed in how we lost to Miss State, but not the result. UCLA is on our home court though, it's not a bad loss if we lose, but I don't expect us to lose. I think the home court advantage helps us prevail so long as Cumberland is Cumberland, Keith is Keith, and our bigs bang inside and rebound.

 

[Cin City]

Play defense. UCLA hasn't seen anything like it...add in the crowd and I like our guys to get the W.

 

[waterhead]

We should be Able to out tough them. But they are coming off a loss too so it won't be easy.


Also, while I think UC is better Overall, and has a better coach and a better culture, I don't feel 100% comfortable about this game.

Its alwayys hard to feel comfortable when the other team has so much talent. Wilkes, Hands, & brown are all 5 star guys.

But that said, they don't have a single Senior on the team and just 1 JR.


Kinda sucks that the students will be off campus on break for this game. But you can get student section tickets for 30 bucks.

Also this is the first true road game for a team who lacks any real experience.

I think our type of high end defense can really frustrate younger talented players. They are used to abusing defenders at every level. More experienced high end talent can sometimes break our system down but I like our chances against younger but more talented teams.

 

[justinhub2003]

Somethings of note:

• UCLA has ELITE 2 pt defense, and its mostly because of their extreme length and 5 Star Shot blocker Moses Brown
• UCLA is 50 Spots better on defense over last season.
• They've been battle tested... But this is their first true road game
• IF they end up scoring easy on us, our best defense, maybe a foul. They shoot just 61% which is #338 in the nation
• They do NOT pressure the ball or attempt to force Turnovers. They ranked #339 in TO rate.
• This team rebounds really well for a UCLA team. They grad boards on both sides of the ball
• We will get some shots blocked. but need to stay persistant.
• UCLA has lost 3 times.. In each of thoses losses, their opponents made 11 or more 3's. Outside shooting is a must against them, because their inside defense is elite.
• They started the season playing ultra high possession basketaball and have since slowed it down a bit. I think they aren't nearly as uncomfortable playing slower.
• Offensive rebounding is a huge deal for them, especially when the shot isn't falling. They were able to beat Notre Dame, because they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds.

 

[GarradJ21]

Somethings of note:

• UCLA has ELITE 2 pt defense, and its mostly because of their extreme length and 5 Star Shot blocker Moses Brown
• UCLA is 50 Spots better on defense over last season.
• They've been battle tested... But this is their first true road game
• IF they end up scoring easy on us, our best defense, maybe a foul. They shoot just 61% which is #338 in the nation
• They do NOT pressure the ball or attempt to force Turnovers. They ranked #339 in TO rate.
• This team rebounds really well for a UCLA team. They grad boards on both sides of the ball
• We will get some shots blocked. but need to stay persistant.
• UCLA has lost 3 times.. In each of thoses losses, their opponents made 11 or more 3's. Outside shooting is a must against them, because their inside defense is elite.
• They started the season playing ultra high possession basketaball and have since slowed it down a bit. I think they aren't nearly as uncomfortable playing slower.
• Offensive rebounding is a huge deal for them, especially when the shot isn't falling. They were able to beat Notre Dame, because they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds.

From this breakdown (always appreciated) it would sound like we are going to lose by 10. We haven't been great on the defensive rebounding side of things and if they are that good on offensive rebounding then we are in trouble. If we are relying on 3 pt shooting because they are a great 2 point defensive team then that is less than ideal.

Again, this breakdown would have me worried, and make it seem like we are going to lose by 10. Simple eye test and trusting our coach, team and home court advantage I think we win by 10.

 

[justinhub2003]

From this breakdown (always appreciated) it would sound like we are going to lose by 10. We haven't been great on the defensive rebounding side of things and if they are that good on offensive rebounding then we are in trouble. If we are relying on 3 pt shooting because they are a great 2 point defensive team then that is less than ideal.

Again, this breakdown would have me worried, and make it seem like we are going to lose by 10. Simple eye test and trusting our coach, team and home court advantage I think we win by 10.

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.


I'm just interpreting the stats.


I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.


But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.


ALLL that said... were at home. that changes the dynamic by a large margin. The facts may not matter if were able to make them uncomfortable from tip to finish

 

[waterhead]

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.


I'm just interpreting the stats.


I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.


But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.


ALLL that said... were at home. that changes the dynamic by a large margin. The facts may not matter if were able to make them uncomfortable from tip to finish

I guess we have some players who are due for a good shooting night from 3. Hopefully we see a few go in early from the guys who are struggling. It has to happen sometime...

 

[GarradJ21]

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.


I'm just interpreting the stats.


I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.


But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.


ALLL that said... were at home. that changes the dynamic by a large margin. The facts may not matter if were able to make them uncomfortable from tip to finish

Yeah, I see what you mean on all points for sure.

 

[GarradJ21]

If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

 

[cincrulz11]

I'm not pointing to win or lose at all.


I'm just interpreting the stats.


I think they will pose more of a matchup problem than a lot of people expect. Just because what we do well is score from the paint, rebound & defend. What they do well is defend the paint, & rebound. That said, offensively, they have some shooters but none are elite and if they want to beat us, its going to be from the 3 point line and I think we will gladly let them try that approach.


But it is a bit concerning that the teams who have beat them, have all done it with volume 3 point makes.

Similar to how UNLV posed some of the same match up problems. They had defended the 2 point shot well up until then (have been terrible since) and they get a ton of offensive boards.



UCLA is a much better opponent though. At least we are at home for this one.


I still like us in games like this. they don't shoot a lot of 3's, and as the announcer last game said, mick knows teams aren't going to beat us only shooting 2 point shots. the math doesn't work out for them.


but if we are particularly bad on offense and they hit some 3's they don't normally hit, it could be tight until the end.


i would still like to see us cut back on the amount of long 2 point jumpers we take. its such a low percentage shot. shooting those at 37% is the same as shooting 25% from 3. scott and keith need to stop shooting them and cumberland shouldn't settle for them. Our Pg's also take a decent amount of them off the dribble, and thats just an awful shot. You can shoot that shot any time but we tend to shoot it early in the clock for no apparent reason.

 

[cincrulz11]

If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

ucla is far from a lock to make the tournament. probably wouldn't be in if it started today.

 

[justinhub2003]

If we win, this will be the first win against a guaranteed tournament team, correct? Obviously NKU (or others) can win their conference, but I'm meaning again an at large bid. Assuming UCLA is truly a team to make the tournament. Xavier is up in the air.

I'm not even sure they are a sure fire Tourney team.


UCLA needs to beat us and OSU to really have done much damage in the non conference. They have a win over Notre Dame which they cancelled out by losing to Belmont.

 

[GarradJ21]

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

 

[Queens_NYC]

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

I'd say it would be close to on par with last season's OOC resume.

Last season's best OOC wins...

Buffalo (neutral - 2nd Round NCAA team)
UCLA (away - Lost in NCAA Play-in game)
Miss State (home - 22 wins, no postseason)

This season we're looking at...

Ole Miss (neutral - outside looking in at NCAA at-large but still possible)
Xavier (home - same as Ole Miss)
UCLA (home - best shot at NCAA at-large)

According to KenPom our OOC SOS last season was 294th nationally. This year we're at 179th, so that should hopefully work in our favor with all the tournament metrics come March.

 

[waterhead]

So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?

The NET ranking has us at 29 so not terrible by any means so far. UCLA would be a decent quality win for us. I think it's one of those games we need to win if we want to shoot for something like a 6 seed or so