22-23 Team Discussion

BearcatTalk

Help Support BearcatTalk:

Q

Queens_NYC

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 8, 2017
Messages
1,655
Our season has officially concluded today with no announcement of postseason tournament participation.

Here is the state of our 22-23 roster as of 3/13:

Players Graduating (2):
Abdul Ado
Hayden Koval

Players with one year of eligibility remaining (2):
David DeJulius
John Newman

Players with two years of eligibility remaining (4):
Mika Adams-Woods
Rob Banks
Jeremiah Davenport
Ody Oguama

Players with three years of eligibility remaining (5):
Jarrett Hensley
Viktor Lakhin
Mason Madsen
Aj McGinnis
Mike Saunders Jr

Incoming Freshmen (3):
Josh Reed
Daniel Skillings
Sage Tolentino

Open Scholarships: -1
 
Safe to say some hard discussions need to be had. 2-3 guys likely need to transfer. And wes has to land a starting transfer.
 
The stat I like to rely on for offensive efficiency is true shooting percentage. Assuming turnovers and offensive rebounds roughly cancel each other out, you need to have a true shooting percentage of 50 to score 1 point per possession, which is an average offense. Top 50 offenses score 1.06 points per possession, which should be our goal. That means a true shooting percentage of 53.

This season we had only one player clear that mark (Lakhin). Compare that to our 2018 team that had seven. Davenport was close at 52.6. Five others were above average (Madsen, Ado, DDJ, Saunders, Ody). Newman and Hensley were below average. MAW and Koval were bad (MAW put up a terrible sub-46 mark).

Of our starting 5 this year, we had two players with bad true shooting percentages and one (Ado) who's usage was so low that his efficiency was irrelevant. So we had three guys who struggle to put the ball in the basket. Having one of those kind of players as either a defensive specialist or distributor is ok, but not the majority of the starting lineup. And the two guys who could score were increasingly attacked on defense as the season went on.

Going forward I think we need to prioritize players who can efficiently put the ball in the basket. Ado and Koval are departing, so hopefully we can get more production out of the 5 spot by default. I think Newman's below average numbers are tolerable since he is our best on ball defender, though I think he would ideally be a bench player. The main issue I have is with MAW. He was second on the team in minutes this season despite his terrible scoring numbers. We can't have a good offense if that happens again.
 
sedziobs said:
The stat I like to rely on for offensive efficiency is true shooting percentage. Assuming turnovers and offensive rebounds roughly cancel each other out, you need to have a true shooting percentage of 50 to score 1 point per possession, which is an average offense. Top 50 offenses score 1.06 points per possession, which should be our goal. That means a true shooting percentage of 53.

This season we had only one player clear that mark (Lakhin). Compare that to our 2018 team that had seven. Davenport was close at 52.6. Five others were above average (Madsen, Ado, DDJ, Saunders, Ody). Newman and Hensley were below average. MAW and Koval were bad (MAW put up a terrible sub-46 mark).

Of our starting 5 this year, we had two players with bad true shooting percentages and one (Ado) who's usage was so low that his efficiency was irrelevant. So we had three guys who struggle to put the ball in the basket. Having one of those kind of players as either a defensive specialist or distributor is ok, but not the majority of the starting lineup. And the two guys who could score were increasingly attacked on defense as the season went on.

Going forward I think we need to prioritize players who can efficiently put the ball in the basket. Ado and Koval are departing, so hopefully we can get more production out of the 5 spot by default. I think Newman's below average numbers are tolerable since he is our best on ball defender, though I think he would ideally be a bench player. The main issue I have is with MAW. He was second on the team in minutes this season despite his terrible scoring numbers. We can't have a good offense if that happens again.
Click to expand...

MAW shot 26.3% from the field and 20.9% from the deep over his last 10 games. To his benefit, he made 21/24 FTs (87.5%).

Newman shot 44.1% from the field and 34.5% from deep over that same stretch while making 8/14 FTs (57.1%).

Not sure how all that equates to TS% but it must still put Newman at a higher clip.

Regardless, we need much better offensive production at both wing positions next season.
 
Queens_NYC said:
MAW shot 26.3% from the field and 20.9% from the deep over his last 10 games. To his benefit, he made 21/24 FTs (87.5%).

Newman shot 44.1% from the field and 34.5% from deep over that same stretch while making 8/14 FTs (57.1%).

Not sure how all that equates to TS% but it must still put Newman at a higher clip.

Regardless, we need much better offensive production at both wing positions next season.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure where to find TS% 10 game splits without manually calculating. In conference play MAW was 48.8 and Newman was 49.6, so both still below average. Ado, Ody, Koval, and Saunders were all under 46 in conference play. On the other side, Davenport, Madsen, and Lakhin were all above 53 (Madsen was 57.1). So if we want to consider how guys were playing toward the end of the year, those are the three we might want to have an increased role.

Saunders had an up-and-down year from three. He started 12-27 (44%) in the non-conference, then went into a 2-18 (11%) slump before finishing 13-29 (45%).

TS% basically converts 3pt and FT into 2pt shots. One thing I like about this approach is it shows why midrange jumpers are so bad. You have to make 53% for it to be a good shot. No one on our team is even close to that. DDJ was best at 47%.
 
sedziobs said:
The stat I like to rely on for offensive efficiency is true shooting percentage. Assuming turnovers and offensive rebounds roughly cancel each other out, you need to have a true shooting percentage of 50 to score 1 point per possession, which is an average offense. Top 50 offenses score 1.06 points per possession, which should be our goal. That means a true shooting percentage of 53.

This season we had only one player clear that mark (Lakhin). Compare that to our 2018 team that had seven. Davenport was close at 52.6. Five others were above average (Madsen, Ado, DDJ, Saunders, Ody). Newman and Hensley were below average. MAW and Koval were bad (MAW put up a terrible sub-46 mark).

Of our starting 5 this year, we had two players with bad true shooting percentages and one (Ado) who's usage was so low that his efficiency was irrelevant. So we had three guys who struggle to put the ball in the basket. Having one of those kind of players as either a defensive specialist or distributor is ok, but not the majority of the starting lineup. And the two guys who could score were increasingly attacked on defense as the season went on.

Going forward I think we need to prioritize players who can efficiently put the ball in the basket. Ado and Koval are departing, so hopefully we can get more production out of the 5 spot by default. I think Newman's below average numbers are tolerable since he is our best on ball defender, though I think he would ideally be a bench player. The main issue I have is with MAW. He was second on the team in minutes this season despite his terrible scoring numbers. We can't have a good offense if that happens again.
Click to expand...

Looking to the future I am okay with DDJ moving on. We can't play our style with him. We can replace him with a longer scoring wing easing up responsibilities on some other players and allowing us to play some/more press and trap D. Give the frosh wings some time to develop. We also should add another short term big who can take some more pressure off other scoring options. MAW can stay if his role is reduced to low volume scoring. He can't operate at higher volumes on offense. He seems to score just as many points on low volume as high volume. We need more efficiency. We can't put Mike and DDJ out there and expect good results either
 
waterhead said:
Looking to the future I am okay with DDJ moving on. We can't play our style with him. We can replace him with a longer scoring wing easing up responsibilities on some other players and allowing us to play some/more press and trap D. Give the frosh wings some time to develop. We also should add another short term big who can take some more pressure off other scoring options. MAW can stay if his role is reduced to low volume scoring. He can't operate at higher volumes on offense. He seems to score just as many points on low volume as high volume. We need more efficiency. We can't put Mike and DDJ out there and expect good results either
Click to expand...

I'm pretty much of the same mind. DDJ is the worst fit for Wes's style of play and as I've stated elsewhere his efficiency numbers are pretty terrible as well. A longer guard/wing would allow us to trap more and make it easier to play Saunders at PG.

I'm okay with MAW/Saunders sticking around to play PG. They both need to improve, but they can work in the system. Saunders needs to improve defensively and we need to add enough other options that MAW is more of a 3-and-D type PG.

If we want to be risky we could trade DDJ for a wing and that's it. Vik, Ody, Hensley, Davenport and Reed would play the 4/5. I'd like to see Davenport's minutes drop, but I don't want him gone. The issue is Vik's health, I don't think we can trust that he will stay healthy given the last couple years. Which means we need to add another center as a rotational piece. But center's are the hardest position to recruit, I don't think we are going to get an upgrade over Ody/Vik. There were rumors that Banks was playing well at PF last fall before his injury, is it possible/likely he stays as a walk-on? He could be a just in case back-up if Vik can't stay healthy.

I'm leaning towards the players most likely to transfer being either Mason or McGinnis. If we get a transfer wing as a starter, one of them isn't going to be getting minutes. I know I've said Saunders in the past, but I am starting to believe in him (and I doubt we can upgrade at backup PG). My prediction is that we have two players leave (including DDJ), but I think 1 or 3 is also possible.

P.S. I believe Vik (redshirted last year) and possibly McGinnis (if he medical redshirts this year, which is unconfirmed rumor) actually have 4 years of eligibility remaining. I doubt Vik uses all 4 and even McGinnis may not want to spend 6 years in college.
 
skyblade said:
There were rumors that Banks was playing well at PF last fall before his injury, is it possible/likely he stays as a walk-on? He could be a just in case back-up if Vik can't stay healthy.
Click to expand...
Could Tolentino be the insurance plan for Vik? Seems like he would be a better interior option than Banks even if he's raw. I haven't seen Banks play in a while, but he's only 6'5" and not very athletic.
 
skyblade said:
I'm pretty much of the same mind. DDJ is the worst fit for Wes's style of play and as I've stated elsewhere his efficiency numbers are pretty terrible as well. A longer guard/wing would allow us to trap more and make it easier to play Saunders at PG.

I'm okay with MAW/Saunders sticking around to play PG. They both need to improve, but they can work in the system. Saunders needs to improve defensively and we need to add enough other options that MAW is more of a 3-and-D type PG.

If we want to be risky we could trade DDJ for a wing and that's it. Vik, Ody, Hensley, Davenport and Reed would play the 4/5. I'd like to see Davenport's minutes drop, but I don't want him gone. The issue is Vik's health, I don't think we can trust that he will stay healthy given the last couple years. Which means we need to add another center as a rotational piece. But center's are the hardest position to recruit, I don't think we are going to get an upgrade over Ody/Vik. There were rumors that Banks was playing well at PF last fall before his injury, is it possible/likely he stays as a walk-on? He could be a just in case back-up if Vik can't stay healthy.

I'm leaning towards the players most likely to transfer being either Mason or McGinnis. If we get a transfer wing as a starter, one of them isn't going to be getting minutes. I know I've said Saunders in the past, but I am starting to believe in him (and I doubt we can upgrade at backup PG). My prediction is that we have two players leave (including DDJ), but I think 1 or 3 is also possible.

P.S. I believe Vik (redshirted last year) and possibly McGinnis (if he medical redshirts this year, which is unconfirmed rumor) actually have 4 years of eligibility remaining. I doubt Vik uses all 4 and even McGinnis may not want to spend 6 years in college.
Click to expand...

I would say Banks is almost a 100% out since we have 3 recruits now and only 2 guys leaving Ado and Koval. And I would rather take my chances on a portal player being better than Banks.

That being said I am not sure I take the chance on no new bigs either. Tolentino likely will need a year or two. Ody fouls a lot. Lakhin fouls a lot and has past injury issues. Both have other issues on the court as well.

Give me one decent big on the block and a taller scoring wing. We can work with that. If Wes wants to press and trap another wing gives us a lot of opportunity. Hensley, Newman, Skillings, Reed, new guy. You can throw Mike out there to push pace and MAW to help the press trap. You can throw Ody out there to help press trap as well and a new big to score in the paint.
 
waterhead said:
I would say Banks is almost a 100% out since we have 3 recruits now and only 2 guys leaving Ado and Koval. And I would rather take my chances on a portal player being better than Banks.

That being said I am not sure I take the chance on no new bigs either. Tolentino likely will need a year or two. Ody fouls a lot. Lakhin fouls a lot and has past injury issues. Both have other issues on the court as well.

Give me one decent big on the block and a taller scoring wing. We can work with that. If Wes wants to press and trap another wing gives us a lot of opportunity. Hensley, Newman, Skillings, Reed, new guy. You can throw Mike out there to push pace and MAW to help the press trap. You can throw Ody out there to help press trap as well and a new big to score in the paint.
Click to expand...

I was talking Banks back as a walk-on, non-scholarship we don't know for sure he's going to transfer just that he's (almost certainly) going to lose the scholarship. Brannen claimed he was good enough to start at lower level and heard good things about him during fall practice. Gives you a back-up plan in case of fouls/injury. Shift Hensley to the 5 (he's big enough to play it) and Banks/Reed back up Davenport at the 4. It wouldn't be ideal, but if we don't add another center I'd take it over Sage playing serious minutes next year.
 
Mason officially enters the portal, not a huge surprise. I enjoyed watching his improvement on defense this year, but in the end he's not big enough to play SF and not quick enough to play SG, at least not at this level. I think he can be and hope he will be successful at a lower level.
 
skyblade said:
Mason officially enters the portal, not a huge surprise. I enjoyed watching his improvement on defense this year, but in the end he's not big enough to play SF and not quick enough to play SG, at least not at this level. I think he can be and hope he will be successful at a lower level.
Click to expand...

Glad he left the program in good standing this year rather than last year when he was dead center of the Brannen drama.

For being our lowest rated recruit of 5 from the 2020 class, he definitely proved that he can hold his own at the highest level of competition.

Hope he can grow into a bigger role and really show out like his brother Gabe was able to do over the 2nd half of this past season.
 
Queens_NYC said:
Hope he can grow into a bigger role and really show out like his brother Gabe was able to do over the 2nd half of this past season.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Gabe turned out to be the shooter we were hoping for here. I wonder if Mason will end up in Utah too.

It will be interesting to see what McGinnis decides to do. The door is wide open for him and Skillings at SG now. I wouldn't mind seeing a lot of minutes from the young guys next year unless we can bring in an impact transfer. If everyone but DDJ stays, we're looking at some thing like:

PG: MAW/Saunders
SG: Skillings/McGinnis
SF: Newman/Reed
PF: Davenport/Hensley
C: Ody/Vik
 
The portal is already rapidly filling up. One guy I'd like us to look at is 6'9" C Payton Sparks from Ball St. In his first year he showed elite rebounding ability and can can score inside and get to the free throw line.
 
sedziobs said:
Yeah, Gabe turned out to be the shooter we were hoping for here. I wonder if Mason will end up in Utah too.

It will be interesting to see what McGinnis decides to do. The door is wide open for him and Skillings at SG now. I wouldn't mind seeing a lot of minutes from the young guys next year unless we can bring in an impact transfer. If everyone but DDJ stays, we're looking at some thing like:

PG: MAW/Saunders
SG: Skillings/McGinnis
SF: Newman/Reed
PF: Davenport/Hensley
C: Ody/Vik
Click to expand...

that lineup is not winning very many games.
 
Back
Top