There is a p6 bias. Gonzaga was the only non power league team to get a protected seed even though WSU, SMU and UC all finished with 30 wins.
Winning is the only way to force their hand. and even then, I think they cap out our ceiling because we don't play in a "power" league.
and what makes it even worse is how many truly bad teams we play that will hurt our on Paper SOS. I'm going to guess last years non conference SOS is going to be better than this years. but our in conference SOS will be better.
Also, we absolutely need to win the Cayman island tournament or I think the perception of our team could quickly change.
Until proven otherwise, I don't believe this committee gives any AAC a fair shake. We have no one in it that represents our league
There's no conspiracy here......as the post you replied to stated, our schedule last year didn't have near the quality this year's schedule will have. I also expect the AAC to have a bounce back year after an absolutely abysmal year last season.
A 5 or 6 loss UC team in 17-18 will have a MUCH better resume than a 3 loss team in 2016-2017 did. I can guarantee you that if we have another 3 loss season this year we're a 1 or a 2 seed.
You do realize that on a team sheet our NON conference SOS is going to be worse than last years right?
Last years combined KP opponent Average : 139
This years Combined KP Opponent Average: 179
We played Zero 300+ teams last year, this year we play 4.
Sure we did better at the top of the non conference but we did so bad at the bottom that its overall worse.
IMO, the only way to get a 2 seed (IMO 1 seed is completely not possible) would be to lose just 2 games or fewer, 1 in conference and 1 in non conference.
History is on my side of the argument. In general non power leagues are always under seeded. The AAC is much improved but its still not the league the big 12, ACC or even big 10 is
Our non conference schedule is greatly improved this year over last year. Our conference should be much better than last year, and we have potential to play another team ranked preseason Top 10 up to 3 times this year in Wichita State.
If you can't recognize that playing a schedule that includes X, UCLA, Miss State, Florida, Iowa (probably), and Wichita State 2 or possibly 3 times is light years above last year's schedule then I'm not sure we can continue to have this conversation. If UC goes through that gauntlet and walks away with 2 losses they're a 1 seed.
You do realize that on a team sheet our NON conference SOS is going to be worse than last years right?
Last years combined KP opponent Average : 139
This years Combined KP Opponent Average: 179
We played Zero 300+ teams last year, this year we play 4.
Sure we did better at the top of the non conference but we did so bad at the bottom that its overall worse.
IMO, the only way to get a 2 seed (IMO 1 seed is completely not possible) would be to lose just 2 games or fewer, 1 in conference and 1 in non conference.
History is on my side of the argument. In general non power leagues are always under seeded. The AAC is much improved but its still not the league the big 12, ACC or even big 10 is
Why isn’t a 1 seed possible? Witchita got a 1 seed one year without playing anyone. A 1 or 2 seed is definetly possible. Not likely but we control it. To say it’s not possible is wrong
If we went 31-1 and lost at Wichita or Florida, you think we wouldn’t get a 1 seed. That’s wrong again. We’d be ranked number 1 for most of the season and probably be the only 1 loss team in the country. Come on man. I get the 300+ teams thing but that literally doesn’t matter if you beat the good teams.They had to go undefeated to get that one seed. Had they lost a single game, it would have knocked them down a seed line.
Sure a 1 seed is possible. but I think you'd have to be a 1 loss team or better.
And Guys I completely understand the top end of our schedule is amazing and I personally wouldn't trade it away.
but I am saying that those 4 300+ teams will hurt us.. Hopefully the committee understands it was out of our control. also our SOS will hurt our RPI.
All I'm saying is; we didn't game the RPI very well at all and it may come back to haunt us. Xavier is going to on paper look like they have a better SOS than us even though they dont play as many great games, but they gamed it.
It could hold us back.... Im not saying this to be negative, just saying after what happened last year, Im not counting on anything from a seeding perspective
They had to go undefeated to get that one seed. Had they lost a single game, it would have knocked them down a seed line.
Sure a 1 seed is possible. but I think you'd have to be a 1 loss team or better.
And Guys I completely understand the top end of our schedule is amazing and I personally wouldn't trade it away.
but I am saying that those 4 300+ teams will hurt us.. Hopefully the committee understands it was out of our control. also our SOS will hurt our RPI.
All I'm saying is; we didn't game the RPI very well at all and it may come back to haunt us. Xavier is going to on paper look like they have a better SOS than us even though they dont play as many great games, but they gamed it.
It could hold us back.... Im not saying this to be negative, just saying after what happened last year, Im not counting on anything from a seeding perspective
How many 1-2 loss teams that were preseason top 15 teams that had good wins got below a 2 seed? Do that math real quickOk. I went back and looked at the top 16 teams (seeds 1-4)
Only 1 team of the 16 played 4 300+ teams
5 of them didn't play any 300+
3 Played 1
6 played 2
1 played 3
So the only team that did play 4 300+ teams was FSU. Do you know why they were given the benefit of the doubt? Because they had 13 top 50 wins which was one of the best in the country.
So yes, you can overcome those 4 300+ teams but you need to rack up a crap ton of top 50 wins to off set it. Guess who doesn't have 13 top 50 wins on our schedule? we have a Max of 7 top 50 wins on our schedule right now. So if we want to even have a chance at 10 top 50 wins, then the AAC better pick up some huge non conference wins
PS Im not being negative and this has nothing to do with how good UC is. I think we can beat anyone in the country, but im not going to be a homer when it comes to seeding. I have historical evidence that proves other wise and until the committee starts respecting the American, then I'm going to assume we are under seeded. Doesn't mean anything though, we need to just beat the team in front of us
They had to go undefeated to get that one seed. Had they lost a single game, it would have knocked them down a seed line.
Sure a 1 seed is possible. but I think you'd have to be a 1 loss team or better.
And Guys I completely understand the top end of our schedule is amazing and I personally wouldn't trade it away.
but I am saying that those 4 300+ teams will hurt us.. Hopefully the committee understands it was out of our control. also our SOS will hurt our RPI.
All I'm saying is; we didn't game the RPI very well at all and it may come back to haunt us. Xavier is going to on paper look like they have a better SOS than us even though they dont play as many great games, but they gamed it.
It could hold us back.... Im not saying this to be negative, just saying after what happened last year, Im not counting on anything from a seeding perspective
Ok. I went back and looked at the top 16 teams (seeds 1-4)
Only 1 team of the 16 played 4 300+ teams
5 of them didn't play any 300+
3 Played 1
6 played 2
1 played 3
So the only team that did play 4 300+ teams was FSU. Do you know why they were given the benefit of the doubt? Because they had 13 top 50 wins which was one of the best in the country.
So yes, you can overcome those 4 300+ teams but you need to rack up a crap ton of top 50 wins to off set it. Guess who doesn't have 13 top 50 wins on our schedule? we have a Max of 7 top 50 wins on our schedule right now. So if we want to even have a chance at 10 top 50 wins, then the AAC better pick up some huge non conference wins
PS Im not being negative and this has nothing to do with how good UC is. I think we can beat anyone in the country, but im not going to be a homer when it comes to seeding. I have historical evidence that proves other wise and until the committee starts respecting the American, then I'm going to assume we are under seeded. Doesn't mean anything though, we need to just beat the team in front of us
You do realize that on a team sheet our NON conference SOS is going to be worse than last years right?
Last years combined KP opponent Average : 139
This years Combined KP Opponent Average: 179
We played Zero 300+ teams last year, this year we play 4.
Sure we did better at the top of the non conference but we did so bad at the bottom that its overall worse.
IMO, the only way to get a 2 seed (IMO 1 seed is completely not possible) would be to lose just 2 games or fewer, 1 in conference and 1 in non conference.
History is on my side of the argument. In general non power leagues are always under seeded. The AAC is much improved but its still not the league the big 12, ACC or even big 10 is
We have a chance to play way more than 7 Top 50 games.
Wichita State x2 #4
Florida #8
SMU x2 #24
Xavier #26
UCLA #29
Iowa #54
Mississippi State #59
UCF x2 #60
Houston x2 #64
Temple x2 #67
UConn x2 #69
I get you mean right now. But some of these teams could easily move up. We might have 7 in the Top 25 alone. So you figure those teams stay Top 50...every other team that overachieves gives us a good bump in that number.
Don't forget WSU could be X 3
I know it sounds crazy but I think our loss total could match our seed this year or be close to it.
1 loss equals 1 seed. 2 losses 2 seed and so on.
I think we could lose 3 games and be in the running for a 1 seed. Obviously it will depend on the other teams we play not falling out of the top 25 but if we only lose 3 games, we will have to beat some good teams along the way. We will also probably be in the top 5 in the country in most polls. We would either have to beat Wichita a couple times or beat a couple of the big December games. If we are in the running for a 1 or 2 seed, the problem will be top 25-50 wins compared to the power 5s, not the 300+ games