AAC

[Bearcat Rob]

First week of March and the AAC has 5 teams ranked in the top 20. the AAC has the most ranked teams of any conference in the nation. It has turned out to be a very good basketball conference

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Yep. Louisville is #11, Cincinnati is #15, SMU is #18, UConn is #19 and Memphis is #20. For the final week of AAC play you have these games:

11 Louisville @ 18 SMU
20 Memphis @ 15 Cincinnati
18 SMU @ 20 Memphis
19 UConn @ 11 Louisville

Amazing job scheduling TV games by the AAC...

 

[Bearcat Rob]

Yep. Louisville is #11, Cincinnati is #15, SMU is #18, UConn is #19 and Memphis is #20. For the final week of AAC play you have these games:

11 Louisville @ 18 SMU
20 Memphis @ 15 Cincinnati
18 SMU @ 20 Memphis
19 UConn @ 11 Louisville

Amazing job scheduling TV games by the AAC...

Has been a very exciting conference, and the conference tourny is going to be great as well, it's going to be a battle, can't wait. Hopefully next year temple can return and have a number in front of their name as well.

 

[BamaCat]

Tie Breaker?

Can someone explain how Louisville has the tie breaker over Cincinnati?

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Can someone explain how Louisville has the tie breaker over Cincinnati?

By virtue of a better winning percentage against the current 3rd place team (1-0 vs SMU compared to 1-1 for UC).

 

[bearcatz1]

By virtue of a better winning percentage against the current 3rd place team (1-0 vs SMU compared to 1-1 for UC).

I thought since they got beat by memphis that they no longer had the tie breaker

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

I thought since they got beat by memphis that they no longer had the tie breaker

Nope. The tie breaker will not change unless there is a change in the team in third place and SMU is still in third place after this weekend. If there is a three way tie for third place (ex. SMU, UConn and Memphis all finish 12-6), then it goes to a coin flip to determine 1 or 2 seed.

 

[anbuc88]

Nope. The tie breaker will not change unless there is a change in the team in third place and SMU is still in third place after this weekend. If there is a three way tie for third place (ex. SMU, UConn and Memphis all finish 12-6), then it goes to a coin flip to determine 1 or 2 seed.

Coin flip doesn't make sense to me. They should use point differential in head to head meetings, especially since UC would win that comparison.

 

[Bearcatboy]

All we need is Louisville to lose 1 and we win out which we have 1 hard game and 1 easy and Louisville has 2 hard games I think we got the conference wrapped up.

 

[Not Guilty]

Coin flip doesn't make sense to me. They should use point differential in head to head meetings, especially since UC would win that comparison.

Given the difference in schedule strength in the final 2 games for each team, I think there is a good chance that we win the conference outright. Having said that though, if we tie for the conference title, we should want to get the 2 seed. It means we would avoid a potential Memphis match up on their home court until the final. Having a semifinal road game against Memphis and then a final match up with Louisville would be incredibly difficult to navigate on back to back nights.

Assuming there are no upsets, there won't be an easy semifinal/final combination. But I can't imagine a more difficult pairing then @Memphis/Louisville. I want to win the conference outright first of all. But avoiding that would be nice as well.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Given the difference in schedule strength in the final 2 games for each team, I think there is a good chance that we win the conference outright. Having said that though, if we tie for the conference title, we should want to get the 2 seed. It means we would avoid a potential Memphis match up on their home court until the final. Having a semifinal road game against Memphis and then a final match up with Louisville would be incredibly difficult to navigate on back to back nights.

Assuming there are no upsets, there won't be an easy semifinal/final combination. But I can't imagine a more difficult pairing then @Memphis/Louisville. I want to win the conference outright first of all. But avoiding that would be nice as well.

I want it outright, but I'll take the tie. I want this regular season championship.

 

[ervins84]

If memphis, SMU and UConn each finish 12-6 (which isn't thaaat crazy given remaining schedules) which of those teams gets the 3, 4, and 5 seed?

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

If memphis, SMU and UConn each finish 12-6 (which isn't thaaat crazy given remaining schedules) which of those teams gets the 3, 4, and 5 seed?

You are actually correct, statistically that scenario has the highest probability of occurring.

You would create a "mini-conference" between the three schools and determine the records and seed accordingly. Currently you have:
3. SMU: 3-0 (2-0 vs UConn, 1-0 vs Mem)
4. UConn: 2-2 (2-0 vs Mem, 0-2 vs SMU)
5. Memphis: 0-3 (0-2 vs UConn, 0-1 vs SMU)

Since there is only one game remaining between SMU and Memphis, the outcome of that game (assuming it causes both teams to 12-6) is meaningless to the seeding.

 

[bearcat jeff]

You are actually correct, statistically that scenario has the highest probability of occurring.

You would create a "mini-conference" between the three schools and determine the records and seed accordingly. Currently you have:
3. SMU: 3-0 (2-0 vs UConn, 1-0 vs Mem)
4. UConn: 2-2 (2-0 vs Mem, 0-2 vs SMU)
5. Memphis: 0-3 (0-2 vs UConn, 0-1 vs SMU)

Since there is only one game remaining between SMU and Memphis, the outcome of that game (assuming it causes both teams to 12-6) is meaningless to the seeding.

Bnts if I ever start my own site I would want you for statistical analysis. I like how you quantify and clarify stuff. Though I'm not a total metric guy I do think it's important.

I know this is per conference formula but I enjoy when you and others supply metris.

 

[JasonS]

Bnts if I ever start my own site I would want you for statistical analysis. I like how you quantify and clarify stuff. Though I'm not a total metric guy I do think it's important.

I know this is per conference formula but I enjoy when you and others supply metris.

I agree with this. I am very much a numbers guy and it is what I base the majority of my opinions on. I think statistics tell an unbelievably consistent story more times than not and NTS does a great job of bringing those to this site. Keep it up.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I agree with this. I am very much a numbers guy and it is what I base the majority of my opinions on. I think statistics tell an unbelievably consistent story more times than not and NTS does a great job of bringing those to this site. Keep it up.

if only you'd apply it to Aaron Craft. Just kidding jason. LOl

 

[Bearcat04]

If you guys like numbers you have to check out John Gasaway's Tuesday Truths. He breaks down how each team in the top 11 conferences are doing in conference play in terms of pace, PPP (points per possession), Opp. PPP, and EM (efficiency margin).

http://johngasaway.com/2014/03/04/tuesday-truths-perfection-edition/#more-1090


Hoop-Math is another good site that breaks down things like % of shots at the rim, FG% at the rim, % of putbacks, etc...

http://hoop-math.com/Cincinnati2014.php

 

[JasonS]

if only you'd apply it to Aaron Craft. Just kidding jason. LOl

hahaha!!! I DO!!! I wish others would join me!

 

[Cataclysmo]

I think statistics can tell any lie convincingly...

 

[Not Guilty]

I think statistics can tell any lie convincingly...

You can tell a lie without stats. Should we just not listen to anything?

There are ways to only search for stats/arguments that support a position, instead of using honest information to form a point of view. That doesn't make stats irrelevant. People just need to understand stats, how they work, and how to apply them. Because using them correctly undoubtedly helps you form and informed opinion.