American Conference Tournament

[Bearcat_NTS]

With some of the action today, things are bit more clear.

1. SMU 15-1 (Tulsa, Memphis) -- >99% they are #1
2. Cincinnati 14-2 (Houston, @UConn) -- >99% they are #2
3. Houston 11-5 (@Cincinnati, ECU) -- 3, 4 still in play
4. UCF 10-7 (@USF) -- 3 still in play but likely 4 or 5
5. UConn 9-7 (@ECU, Cincinnati) -- 4, 5 or 6 but likely former two
6. Memphis 8-8 (Tulane, @SMU) -- 5, 6, or 7 but latter two most likely
7. Tulsa 8-8 (@SMU, @Tulane) -- 5, 6, or 7 but latter two most likely
8. Temple 6-11 (@USF) -- 8 or 9
9. ECU 5-11 (UConn, @Houston) -- 8 or 9
10. Tulane 2-14 (@Memphis, Tulsa) -- Pretty much lock to be 10
11. USF 1-15 (UCF, Temple) -- Pretty much lock to be 11

Here is the most likely scenario by KenPom probabilities:

First round – Thursday, March 9
3:30 PM #9 ECU vs. #8 Temple ESPNU (this game is a lock)
6:00 PM #10 Tulane vs. #7 Tulsa ESPNews
8:00 PM #11 South Florida vs. #6 Memphis ESPNews

Quarterfinals – Friday, March 10
Noon #8 Temple/#9 ECU vs #1 SMU ESPN2
2:00 PM #5 Connecticut vs #4 UCF ESPN2
7:00 PM #7 Tulsa/#10 Tulane vs #2 Cincinnati ESPNU
9:00 PM #6 Memphis/#11 South Florida vs #3 Houston ESPNU

Semifinals – Saturday, March 11
3:00 PM ESPN2
5:00 PM ESPN2

Championship – Sunday, March 12
3:15 PM ESPN

 

[ervins84]

If that holds with SMU, UCONN, and UCF on the other side of the bracket, I think having the 2 seed is a better draw.

And even better the game would be at 7, so most of us actually get to watch it.

 

[Queens_NYC]

If that holds with SMU, UCONN, and UCF on the other side of the bracket, I think having the 2 seed is a better draw.

And even better the game would be at 7, so most of us actually get to watch it.

For sure. We'd trade a slightly more difficult quarter-final match-up for a much more favorable semi-final match-up- which first falls on us taking care of business against Houston at home.

 

[cincyguy13]

If that holds with SMU, UCONN, and UCF on the other side of the bracket, I think having the 2 seed is a better draw.

And even better the game would be at 7, so most of us actually get to watch it.

I'll take that

 

[cincyguy13]

We need to play SMU also. Only chance at a decent win left

 

[Bearcat513]

We need to play SMU also. Only chance at a decent win left

Houston's #54 in the RPI, #38 on KenPom. For how this conference has turned out, that's a pretty solid W if we take care of business Thursday.

 

[cincyguy13]

Houston's #54 in the RPI, #38 on KenPom. For how this conference has turned out, that's a pretty solid W if we take care of business Thursday.

We should win that at home on senior night. Just saying that Houston game isn't going to change a seed. I think we are Prob a 5 seed. Only way we have a chance at a 4 (slim chance) is winning out and beating SMU. Beating anyone else would not help

 

[Bearcat513]

We should win that at home on senior night. Just saying that Houston game isn't going to change a seed. I think we are Prob a 5 seed. Only way we have a chance at a 4 (slim chance) is winning out and beating SMU. Beating anyone else would not help

If Houston continues to climb up the RPI into the top 50, that's 2 more wins versus RPI top 50, which is definitely something the committee will look at. If we draw Tulsa, Houston, and SMU in the conference tourney, and win obviously, that's huge. Off the top of my head, that'd be 6 wins versus RPI top 50 (assuming Houston moves up).

 

[cincyguy13]

I would love to win this thing. Not looking like we are going to win the league now. I like mick, but if he doesn't start winning something, it gets hard to defend that. I know he won the league with SK but that's it. Time to start winning something

 

[waterhead]

If that holds with SMU, UCONN, and UCF on the other side of the bracket, I think having the 2 seed is a better draw.

And even better the game would be at 7, so most of us actually get to watch it.

This would easily be the ideal situation right now. One thing is for sure...we don't want to run into a good defense on the road/neutral. We are bad enough on the road as it is against mediocre opponents.

I hate to say it but we will need the benefit of a good draw in both tourneys to make any splash this year. Or we will need to make some serious adjustments and ride the players who are the most effective on the court on any given night.

We are still going to need a lot of minutes from any starter who isn't playing well...but we don't have to play them 40 minutes when they are struggling.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

If UConn wins tonight, they are pretty much locked into the #5 seed worst case since both Memphis and Tulsa have to play games @SMU. That means the game on Sunday will essentially be meaningless for seeding purposes.

 

[waterhead]

If UConn wins tonight, they are pretty much locked into the #5 seed worst case since both Memphis and Tulsa have to play games @SMU. That means the game on Sunday will essentially be meaningless for seeding purposes.

Looks like they play tomorrow

 

[waterhead]

Looks like much of the conference tourney is pretty much set except for a couple of minor seeding issues. Most likely scenario...

First round #8/#9 should be Temple vs ECU. The winner plays #1 SMU in 2nd round

#4/#5 should be UConn vs UCF. The winner will probably play SMU in the 3rd round.


First round #7/#10 should be Memphis vs Tulane. Winner plays #2 UC.

First round #6/#11 should be Tulsa vs USF. Winner plays #3 Houston.


I could be wrong about some of this but I like SMU, UConn, UCF in the other bracket. I also like getting a chance at 3 wins against Houston.

 

[GarradJ21]

Looks like much of the conference tourney is pretty much set except for a couple of minor seeding issues. Most likely scenario...

First round #8/#9 should be Temple vs ECU. The winner plays #1 SMU in 2nd round

#4/#5 should be UConn vs UCF. The winner will probably play SMU in the 3rd round.


First round #7/#10 should be Memphis vs Tulane. Winner plays #2 UC.

First round #6/#11 should be Tulsa vs USF. Winner plays #3 Houston.


I could be wrong about some of this but I like SMU, UConn, UCF in the other bracket. I also like getting a chance at 3 wins against Houston.

So basically we play Memphis first game, Houston second game and then SMU Championship if everything goes as planned?

 

[waterhead]

So basically we play Memphis first game, Houston second game and then SMU Championship if everything goes as planned?

As it stands I think so...If the seeds hold up as is. We could play Tulsa but I think Memphis owns the tie breaker. I would expect both teams to end 9-9 with remaining schedule.

 

[waterhead]

So basically we play Memphis first game, Houston second game and then SMU Championship if everything goes as planned?

You gotta think SMU with two home games remaining will win out. UC would be locked in as 2 seed in that scenario or even if SMU loses 1 and we win out. I haven't checked all the tie breakers but Houston should be locked at the 3 with one easy win. Uconn should lock up being in the 4-5 game tonight with a win and play against UCF.

Memphis and Tulsa are either 6 or 7 seed. They are 8-8 with both @SMU and an easy game left. I think Memphis gets the tie. ECU and Temple are either 8 or 9 but they would play each other so doesn't matter. Tulane is up one game on USF but who cares.

 

[IABearcat]

You gotta think SMU with two home games remaining will win out. UC would be locked in as 2 seed in that scenario or even if SMU loses 1 and we win out. I haven't checked all the tie breakers but Houston should be locked at the 3 with one easy win. Uconn should lock up being in the 4-5 game tonight with a win and play against UCF.

Memphis and Tulsa are either 6 or 7 seed. They are 8-8 with both @SMU and an easy game left. I think Memphis gets the tie. ECU and Temple are either 8 or 9 but they would play each other so doesn't matter. Tulane is up one game on USF but who cares.

IF we somehow end up tied with SMU we get the 2 because it goes down the line in standings and record vs common opponents. The first one SMU would have an advantage would be UCF they'd be 1-0 we would be 1-1.

Unless Memphis or Tulsa passes UCF in the standings UC has the 2.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

IF we somehow end up tied with SMU we get the 2 because it goes down the line in standings and record vs common opponents. The first one SMU would have an advantage would be UCF they'd be 1-0 we would be 1-1.

Unless Memphis or Tulsa passes UCF in the standings UC has the 2.

Correct. In order for UC to get the #1 seed:

SMU has to lose to Tulsa and Memphis
OR
SMU has to lose to Tulsa AND Tulsa has to finish 2-0 AND UCF has to lose to USF
OR
SMU has to lose to Memphis AND Memphis has to finish 2-0 AND UCF has to lose to USF

Very, very unlikely scenarios.

 

[waterhead]

IF we somehow end up tied with SMU we get the 2 because it goes down the line in standings and record vs common opponents. The first one SMU would have an advantage would be UCF they'd be 1-0 we would be 1-1.

Unless Memphis or Tulsa passes UCF in the standings UC has the 2.

Memphis or Tulsa would have win out which includes away games at SMU and UCF would have to get beat by USF...just to tie. Highly unlikely. Speaking of highly unlikely...there is still the outside chance that we win out and SMU loses two at home. I don't see either happening of course.

Virtual lock on the two seed.

 

[2bearcatdad]

UConn lost to ECU. Now they'll likely end up 9-9 with Memphis & Tulsa.

Anyone know who's got the tiebreaker?