Arkansas-Pine Bluff

[sedziobs]

looking at his experiment he had the guy out there do nothing while everybody else on the court had 3% chance of scoring 1 point, 30% chance at 2 points, 15% chance of 3 points. i dont know if thats the best experiment to run, clearly those numbers are going to go crazy running simulations.

The player isn't necessarily doing nothing. His team scores 1.08 points per possession (the result of adding up those percentages). But we don't know what any individual player, including the one we're evaluating, is doing. And that's the whole point. You can't tell from plus-minus what contribution any one player is making to the team. Sure, you can use it to decide that Gary Clark is better than Nsoseme. But it's not really useful when trying to distinguish between players like Jenifer and Broome.

I think better arguments against Jenifer are that he has a very low usage rate, his true shooting percentage is under 50%, and he doesn't rebound or draw fouls. His defense needs to be elite to make up for that.

 

[waterhead]

The player isn't necessarily doing nothing. His team scores 1.08 points per possession (the result of adding up those percentages). But we don't know what any individual player, including the one we're evaluating, is doing. And that's the whole point. You can't tell from plus-minus what contribution any one player is making to the team. Sure, you can use it to decide that Gary Clark is better than Nsoseme. But it's not really useful when trying to distinguish between players like Jenifer and Broome.

I think better arguments against Jenifer are that he has a very low usage rate, his true shooting percentage is under 50%, and he doesn't rebound or draw fouls. His defense needs to be elite to make up for that.

I would have to imagine his length has to affect his steals and deflections a lot as well. I mean he has to be up in a players jock the whole game and always in position to hope to be as effective as the longer more athletic player.

 

[cincrulz11]

I think better arguments against Jenifer are that he has a very low usage rate, his true shooting percentage is under 50%, and he doesn't rebound or draw fouls. His defense needs to be elite to make up for that.

right and thats why i was saying i think the difference on defense between the 3 pg's is negligible. each have things they are good at and other things they struggle with. jenifer being small and not the most athletic but strong and smart, broome being small and weak and gets lost sometimes, but he's quick and gets a decent amount of steals, lojo being inexperience and gambles too often but he has size and is very athletic and can make up for some mental mistakes.



theres no doubt who helps the team more on offense.



now if jenifer in some way had the body and athleticism of keith but still played the offense of jenifer, then i think the argument between jenifer and broome is pretty close.

 

[cincrulz11]

The player isn't necessarily doing nothing. His team scores 1.08 points per possession (the result of adding up those percentages). But we don't know what any individual player, including the one we're evaluating, is doing. And that's the whole point. You can't tell from plus-minus what contribution any one player is making to the team.

when i said the player is doing nothing i just meant it in the same sense as kenpom when he said "i created a player who has absolutely no impact on the game"

 

[sedziobs]

right and thats why i was saying i think the difference on defense between the 3 pg's is negligible.

No argument from me, but there's not a good way to show that with data, so we're left to trust whether Mick can accurately assess each player's defense. Obviously, he thinks Jenifer is in fact elite. I don't think it's good enough to compensate, but I'm not too worked up about it. They split minutes pretty evenly. If it was a 60/40 split in favor of Jenifer I would be more upset. I would prefer 40/60, but that instead of the current 50/50 isn't going to radically change our team's strength. I think a bigger problem is Cumberland shooting less than 40% on 2 pt shots with a crazy high 33% usage rate. He takes too many step-back jumpers.

 

[cincrulz11]

No argument from me, but there's not a good way to show that with data, so we're left to trust whether Mick can accurately assess each player's defense. Obviously, he thinks Jenifer is in fact elite. I don't think it's good enough to compensate, but I'm not too worked up about it. They split minutes pretty evenly. If it was a 60/40 split in favor of Jenifer I would be more upset. I would prefer 40/60, but that instead of the current 50/50 isn't going to radically change our team's strength. I think a bigger problem is Cumberland shooting less than 40% on 2 pt shots with a crazy high 33% usage rate. He takes too many step-back jumpers.

cane is getting 27 minutes a game, hard to have a beef with that.



most surprising part to me about cumberland is he's only shooting 35% at the rim so far. he was 58% last year.

 

[waterhead]

cane is getting 27 minutes a game, hard to have a beef with that.



most surprising part to me about cumberland is he's only shooting 35% at the rim so far. he was 58% last year.

Yes, and that is with a 14 minute effort mixed in. Of course there was one game with Jenifer out so it all probably evens out. I am not complaining about 27 mpg. That's number 3 on the team.

 

[cincrulz11]

the eyes that ref had to see that touch on the rim. here i thought most of these guys were blind.

 

[mdchick]

A couple games in a row now we’ve got off to a good start after the Ohio state game where we had a terrible start, good to see the first 3 3s go in

 

[waterhead]

I couldn’t tell what went wrong on that alley ooop

 

[cincrulz11]

scott trying to dribble

 

[mdchick]

Trevor Moore doesn’t even have a jersey on

 

[mdchick]

Trevor Moore doesn’t even have a jersey on

Trevor’s Moore is wearing a jersey

 

[mdchick]

Their big men are ether not good or brooks and Scott are good

 

[cincrulz11]

gotta be one of the first times ive seen a guard pull the dream

 

[cincrulz11]

playing a guy with 2 fouls alert

 

[waterhead]

playing a guy with 2 fouls alert

Must feel lucky today

Side note...Williams is fun to watch!!

 

[waterhead]

I know their team sucks...but it looks like we have picked up a ton of confidence since the first couple of games!

 

[Mcginnjw]

Wow....this is a beating. Fun to watch the young guys get PT. Also fun to watch Keith...that guy is a hell of an athlete.

 

[Freak25]

I definitely like the direction I see this team going!

I've never been a big Mick guy but he seems to be doing a good job with what he has this year.