given that in cbb hca is typically worth 4-5 pts in favor of the home team, vegas is more or less saying were about 1.5-2.5 pt dog on a neutral court vs nova.
Regardless what happens tomorrow, that should be one of the strongest indicators on where this team is and how far its come. No chance anyone thought in the preseason that the line would be like that for the this game on the road, (myself included.)
I did 
! Toughest stretch of games of the season. Saw last night with St. Johns what can happen to an unfocused team on the road in the Big East. You have to bring it every single night.
I actually think the Bearcats match up well with Villanova. They have no answer for our frontline and I'd give their backcourt the edge. I think it's going to be an intense battle with UC once again playing with a chip on their shoulder.
This is a game where they will have to play sit down defense for much of the game. Villanova plays very good team defense and UC better be ready for it, especially on the perimeter. Cash and good decision making will be at a premium today.
If the Bearcats value the ball they have a shot at the upset. If they come in unfocused the Wildcats have the ability to run them off the court with fastbreak points. These two teams are similiar with an edge to the Villanova backcourt and a clear edge to UC's frontcourt.
In my opinion the game comes down to 1) How well does UC handle Villanova's backcourt pressure? 2) Can UC take advantage of their size inside? 3) Free throw shooting.
If Cincinnati is careless and allows Villanova to run a track meet it will be ugly. Handle the backcourt pressure, get the ball inside, and hit free throws and there's a reasonable chance the Bearcats can pull the upset.
On a side note, the importance of this game cannot be understated in terms of national respect. If UC can somehow find a way to win this game there will be no more skeptics. Respect and national attention are HUGE in terms of recruiting and when playing against other top teams. They don't have to win, but they need to be there at the end. I think they know this.
