Contender or Pretender?

[waterhead]

Right now I am still on the fence about what heights this team can get to. Certainly recent play (post X) is VERY encouraging. As of right now I think we can hang with the better teams on any given night based on one constant and one variable.

In our 16 wins we have only scored less than 61 points in one game (Pitt) and we have only allowed more than 62 points in one game (Kennesaw St). In our two losses we scored less than 61 and the other team scored more than 62.

For the most part the one constant we know we are going to have is great D. So if we use that as a constant I think we can get a good handle on how we can beat the best teams in the country with the variable being shooting.

To beat the best teams (say top 15 or so) we are going to have to have a good shooting night (for us).

With most of the rest of the teams in the top 25 we can play our average game and have at least a 50-50 chance.

With lesser teams we can just play solid D and hope they aren't knocking down a fluke number of shots.

So I think we CAN play with just about anyone (assuming their average shooting night) but it depends on our shooting variable because we know the D is going to be there.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Right now I am still on the fence about what heights this team can get to. Certainly recent play (post X) is VERY encouraging. As of right now I think we can hang with the better teams on any given night based on one constant and one variable.

In our 16 wins we have only scored less than 61 points in one game (Pitt) and we have only allowed more than 62 points in one game (Kennesaw St). In our two losses we scored less than 61 and the other team scored more than 62.

For the most part the one constant we know we are going to have is great D. So if we use that as a constant I think we can get a good handle on how we can beat the best teams in the country with the variable being shooting.

To beat the best teams (say top 15 or so) we are going to have to have a good shooting night (for us).

With most of the rest of the teams in the top 25 we can play our average game and have at least a 50-50 chance.

With lesser teams we can just play solid D and hope they aren't knocking down a fluke number of shots.

So I think we CAN play with just about anyone (assuming their average shooting night) but it depends on our shooting variable because we know the D is going to be there.

Cincinnati has not played all that great since the Memphis game, but that is due to the competition. I hope they are able to get the wins in the next 3 games but I have a bad feeling they could drop one before Louisville...

 

[waterhead]

Let's look at this a different way. We have yet to lose a game when we have shot 36.5% or higher (and that is not a good number). In both losses we were under 36.5% shooting and those were the only games we were under.

On the other hand we have beat good teams with as low as 36.5% (SMU) and as high as Memphis at 43.9%...and we cleaned their clock. With a closer look at both games...UM shot 33.3% and SMU shot 45.1. So we can beat good teams when shooting is lopsided against us and obliterate good teams when the shooting variable goes the other way.

If all else remains constant...I think we can beat almost any team in the country with a 42.5-45% shooting night. Top 10-25 I think we can beat most teams if we shoot 37.5-40%.

For everyone else we can handle with 37.5% (again everything else constant)

 

[waterhead]

In our two losses...not only did we shoot horrible but the other team shot awesome. X was 56.4% to our 33.3% and NM was 50% to our 29.5%. Our worst two shooting nights of the year and I am guessing the highest %'s shot against us all year.

These were "perfect storms" for those teams.

 

[waterhead]

In our 3rd worst shooting performance we shot 36.5% and SMU shot 45.1%. I don't know for sure but 45.1% may also be our 3rd worst defensive performance.

This was also a perfect storm for SMU...but this shows how good this team is that we can also beat a good team even with a perfect storm.

 

[waterhead]

Our "perfect storm" was agianst Memphis 43.9 to their 33.3...and we blew them out.

This is leading me to believe we just need to play our average game to beat some of the better teams in the country...and maybe just have a "decent storm" to beat the the best.

 

[waterhead]

Cincinnati has not played all that great since the Memphis game, but that is due to the competition. I hope they are able to get the wins in the next 3 games but I have a bad feeling they could drop one before Louisville...

After reviewing some of our other game performances I am inclined to believe right now it's only going to happen if there is a "perfect storm".

 

[ervins84]

If the offense scores 1.1 points per possession, I feel comfortable saying this team will not lose to virtually anyone. Problem is that number doesn't come along very often vs quality opponents.

Below is every game vs a top 200 kenpom ranked team as of today.

NC central UC score 1.12 win by 13

NC st. UC Scored 1.11 win by 11

USC upstste vs UC scored 1.28 and win by 36

New Mex UC scored 0.9 lose by 9
XU UC scored 0.8 blowout
Pitt UC scored 0.92 and WON which is absurd.

Midd Tenn UC scored 1.05 blowout

Nebraska UC scored 1.21 and blowout

SMU UC scored 1.05 and won by 8

Memphis UC only scored 1.01 and won by 16 on their court.

@hou UC scored 1.00 and barely won in probably their worst defensive game all year.

Rutgers UC scored 1.03 and won by 20

Temple UC scored 1.1 and won by 11.






1.10 adjO would rank 68th in the country. The problem is on the year we are 1.057 and in conference play ( small sample noted) we are even worse at 1.036).

Our defense is unquestionably one of the 10 best in the country, and my national guage isn't as strong as it normally is bc I've barely had time to watch anything but UC and a few other games throughout the year, but they more than pass the eye test.

I don't think there's any question that no team is ever happy to see UC on the schedule bc it's so damn hard to score vs this team. If we ever figure out a way to up our offensive efficiency or just get semi hot wrt shooting, this team will be scary. Problem is that is asking alot and probably isn't going to happen except on hot shooting nights bc at this point the offense pretty much is what it is going to be.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

If the offense scores 1.1 points per possession, I feel comfortable saying this team will not lose to virtually anyone. Problem is that number doesn't come along very often vs quality opponents.

Below is every game vs a top 200 kenpom ranked team as of today.

NC central UC score 1.12 win by 13

NC st. UC Scored 1.11 win by 11

USC upstste vs UC scored 1.28 and win by 36

New Mex UC scored 0.9 lose by 9
XU UC scored 0.8 blowout
Pitt UC scored 0.92 and WON which is absurd.

Midd Tenn UC scored 1.05 blowout

Nebraska UC scored 1.21 and blowout

SMU UC scored 1.05 and won by 8

Memphis UC only scored 1.01 and won by 16 on their court.

@hou UC scored 1.00 and barely won in probably their worst defensive game all year.

Rutgers UC scored 1.03 and won by 20

Temple UC scored 1.1 and won by 11.






1.10 adjO would rank 68th in the country. The problem is on the year we are 1.057 and in conference play ( small sample noted) we are even worse at 1.036).

Our defense is unquestionably one of the 10 best in the country, and my national guage isn't as strong as it normally is bc I've barely had time to watch anything but UC and a few other games throughout the year, but they more than pass the eye test.

I don't think there's any question that no team is ever happy to see UC on the schedule bc it's so damn hard to score vs this team. If we ever figure out a way to up our offensive efficiency or just get semi hot wrt shooting, this team will be scary. Problem is that is asking alot and probably isn't going to happen except on hot shooting nights bc at this point the offense pretty much is what it is going to be.

The bright spot is the offense has looked good in spurts this season. I wonder if you could pull numbers for the first half vs second half of games. I would venture to say the PPP has been much better in half number 2.

 

[UCBearcats]

Contender - If you don't believe they're a contender than what's the point???

 

[BDcats]

I feel like this team is headed in a great direction. Assuming JL gets back and can continue to progress I think we make some noise in March.

 

[#BearcatNation]

I feel like this team is headed in a great direction. Assuming JL gets back and can continue to progress I think we make some noise in March.

Agreed. Just got to hope the injury doesn't linger. JJ needs to adjust to his foul trouble so the JL injury isn't as significant. If it means give up a dunk or two, so be it. Can't foul early in games.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Agreed. Just got to hope the injury doesn't linger. JJ needs to adjust to his foul trouble so the JL injury isn't as significant. If it means give up a dunk or two, so be it. Can't foul early in games.

MC indicated he might play a bit more zone to help JJ and Rubles stay out of foul trouble.

 

[#BearcatNation]

MC indicated he might play a bit more zone to help JJ and Rubles stay out of foul trouble.

Heard that too. Just hope our defense doesn't suffer because of it. Man to man has been our bread and butter.

 

[UCalum08]

Heard that too. Just hope our defense doesn't suffer because of it. Man to man has been our bread and butter.

I hear ya. It worries me because I think it will hurt us in rebounding. While it seems we are great at getting offensive rebounds sometimes I don't see it on the defensive side. It seems like we struggle boxing out on a consistent basis. Which is a big downside to the zone.

 

[TheLivingLegend]

I hear ya. It worries me because I think it will hurt us in rebounding. While it seems we are great at getting offensive rebounds sometimes I don't see it on the defensive side. It seems like we struggle boxing out on a consistent basis. Which is a big downside to the zone.

This team struggles and will continue to struggle vs really big teams... That becomes heightened with JJ in foul trouble.

 

[JumpinJack5]

Heard that too. Just hope our defense doesn't suffer because of it. Man to man has been our bread and butter.

Yeah, it could hurt, but on the flip side it could help us. If we have to face a really good team later on this year and our man to man isn't working, it is good to have worked on your zone before you have to use it. Say we have to play a team with some good bigs, like UK, Duke, or Kansas, zone might be our best option if we are getting pounded inside. It wouldn't be ideal, as our man is superb, but you have to be ready to make in-game adjustments.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Again, people do not give Mick Cronin enough credit for the adjustments he makes; especially in adversity. He also isn't afraid to call his players out. He has called Titus and Jackson out after the X game. He's called SK out and this past week he call Nyarsuk out. He demands players step up and compete. One thing is for sure. Whatever defense they play the team will pour there heart and soul into it.

 

[JumpinJack5]

Again, people do not give Mick Cronin enough credit for the adjustments he makes; especially in adversity. He also isn't afraid to call his players out. He has called Titus and Jackson out after the X game. He's called SK out and this past week he call Nyarsuk out. He demands players step up and compete. One thing is for sure. Whatever defense they play the team will pour there heart and soul into it.

He does a nice job getting the most he can out of his players. I sometimes wonder a little about Mick, but I try to give him the benefit of the doubt. He has a tough job and he has done a nice job with this team. Mick has plenty of flaws, which is why I sometimes agree with L-T. Overall, though, he is a very good coach and the best coach for this program. He is here for the long haul, and I think he will take us to an elite 8 or final 4 at some point in his tenure.

 

[waterhead]

MC indicated he might play a bit more zone to help JJ and Rubles stay out of foul trouble.

I would throw up the zone when JJ gets in foul trouble. If he doesn't get in foul trouble I would stick with man for the most part depending on the matchup of course.