FULL 2017-18 SCHEDULE

[jacobkdoyle]

@GoBearcatsMBB
Here it is, the 2017-2018 #Bearcats schedule!

: https://t.co/w4ZCgU3RxQ https://t.co/gW8XpOcGK0

 

[justinhub2003]

@GoBearcatsMBB
Here it is, the 2017-2018 #Bearcats schedule!

: https://t.co/w4ZCgU3RxQ https://t.co/gW8XpOcGK0

Dreadful and hugely disapointing.

This will hurt UC in seeding. 5+ Kenpom 300+ teams on the schedule. Its going to put our KP NCSOS in the 200's easily

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Dreadful and hugely disapointing.

This will hurt UC in seeding. 5+ Kenpom 300+ teams on the schedule. Its going to put our KP NCSOS in the 200's easily

Meh. I feel like we'll have a ton of Top 50 games. Last year, that's what everyone said the committee cares about. Why not this year? And if we're beating the tar out of bad teams, is that really gonna hurt us that much?

 

[UCBearcats]

Dreadful and hugely disapointing.

This will hurt UC in seeding. 5+ Kenpom 300+ teams on the schedule. Its going to put our KP NCSOS in the 200's easily

Non conference games against Florida, Miss State, Iowa (potentially), Xavier and UCLA isn't good enough? You also have to expect our conference will be better than last season. Add in the addition of Wichita State and (2) games against them and this schedule is pretty solid.

Not sure what else you'd be looking for from a member of the AAC. This schedule is much better schedule on paper than last season, and you have to expect our conference will be better than last season

 

[justinhub2003]

They will look at the team sheets and the non conference sos will be really week.

I went back and looked all the back to 2010, since then we’ve never played 5 300+ kenpom teams in our non conference. Max is 4

Our sos rank was 167 in non con last year, and that was with zero 300+ Games



I’m not looking for more high major games. I’m looking for better buy games.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

They will look at the team sheets and the non conference sos will be really week.

I went back and looked all the back to 2010, since then we’ve never played 5 300+ kenpom teams in our non conference. Max is 4

Our sos rank was 167 in non con last year, and that was with zero 300+ Games



I’m not looking for more high major games. I’m looking for better buy games.

Why aren't you looking for more high major games? I don't get that. I want us to play the very best teams possible in the regular season so we know what's required to advance in March. Harder to get a taste of that when you just pound teams that are clearly inferior. Plus, that just seems like a recipe for racking up some bad losses. On paper, it looks like we won't be hurt much if at all by non-con losses. And doesn't playing a bunch of Top 50 games cancel out the lower tier games we play and even things out for SOS?

Idk. I'll take more high profile games. Seems to me like it's a better way to establish yourself nationally. And it makes for a more enjoyable viewing experience as a fan imo.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

So if we had a chance to take out the 5 worst teams we play, along with the 5 best teams...and we swapped them out for 10 games vs KenPom 150-200ish teams, people would be happy about that?

If this truly leads to a better non-con SOS, then the system is broken. Because we're putting ourselves in the line of fire this year by taking on harder teams. No doubt in my mind we'd have a better record if we slightly upped the buy games, but stopped looking for high major games.

 

[JasonS]

I agree with Jake. I'm pumped for this schedule. This is great. I don't care about KenPom rankings. Beating top teams will give you a better chance at getting a higher seed in the tourney.

 

[justinhub2003]

No. 5 300+ Games means youd need every other game in your non conference to be top 30.

I don’t think you guys understand how bad 5 300+ Games can kill your sos

 

[JasonS]

I get it but I don't care about OOC SOS. As long as UC takes care of business no issues. Much more important to see top wins than OOC SOS.

 

[UCalum08]

While those 300+ RPI buy games aren't ideal, it won't matter if teams in the AAC aren't better than last year. Teams like Temple, UCONN, Houston, SMU, UCF need to have a solid year. If they could be top 50 would be best, but I would settle for top 100.

My big gripe with the schedule is this is the 2nd straight season we play 2 road senior games to end the season. Even more annoying, we travel to Tulane on Thursday for a 9pm tip, then play a potential conference championship game @WSU Sunday at noon. That's bullsh*t if you ask me.

 

[justinhub2003]

Id be willing to bet 50 bucks that UC's Non conference SOS will be 40 spots lower than it was last year.

Id also be willing to bet that a team like Xavier's Non Conference SOS is much better than ours and they play in a better league.

Like, Im looking at it 2 ways: One way is if this was the best they could get based on playing at NKU's arena and the constraints regarding that. Then yea Im ok with it, but it still sucks. But if whoever built our schedule, looked over the schedule and thought; Damn I did a good job, then they need to be fired ASAP. And they understand very little about gaming the RPI/KP.

Lets compare it to Xavier's schedule.

Xavier's 4 best games are: @Wisconsin, Baylor, Cincinnati, East Tennesee State
UC's Best 4 games: @UCLA, @Xavier, Florida, Miss State

At Glance it looks like our 4 best games are way way better and thus our SOS should be much much higher

But then you look and realize Xavier plays just 1 300+ game and has a bunch of really great buy games.

UC's Average opponent KP rank: 180
Xavier's: 125

Xavier is going to potentially never even be challenged in its non conference and yet is going to walk away with a high SOS rank and completely gamed the rankings. UC has 4 chances to lose and then a bunch of cupcakes that move the needle backwards.

the only reason I say don't fire who ever made this schedule is because of our NKU issue. IF they do anything like this in the future, that person needs fired ASAP because they don't understand scheduling or analytics.


Add in that; UC need absolutely nothing to get people to show up to games. They used the new Arena to hold season ticket holders into buying tickets this year and yet we bring in 1 decent school to play in front of the fans; and then the worst buy games you can buy. Yay for Savannah State and Alabama State... Gonna be a roaring excited crowd for that one

 

[justinhub2003]

While those 300+ RPI buy games aren't ideal, it won't matter if teams in the AAC aren't better than last year. Teams like Temple, UCONN, Houston, SMU, UCF need to have a solid year. If they could be top 50 would be best, but I would settle for top 100.

My big gripe with the schedule is this is the 2nd straight season we play 2 road senior games to end the season. Even more annoying, we travel to Tulane on Thursday for a 9pm tip, then play a potential conference championship game @WSU Sunday at noon. That's bullsh*t if you ask me.

We can't control our conference. The one piece where we can control something is Non conference. we Phoned it in after landing the 4 marquee games.

Dont be surprised to see Xavier leap frog us in mind share again this season. there schedule sets them up for Success and SOS goodness.


I know im harping on it, but its a huge huge disapointment and Im just upset that this great team we have is playing such terrible teams and it has real impact on seeding.


And Mick's quote that this maybe the best non league schedule of all time drove even more nuts. Some one needs fired if they convinced him of that or if he actually believes it. Its the stupidest comment.

 

[UCalum08]

We can't control our conference. The one piece where we can control something is Non conference. we Phoned it in after landing the 4 marquee games.

Dont be surprised to see Xavier leap frog us in mind share again this season. there schedule sets them up for Success and SOS goodness.


I know im harping on it, but its a huge huge disapointment and Im just upset that this great team we have is playing such terrible teams and it has real impact on seeding.


And Mick's quote that this maybe the best non league schedule of all time drove even more nuts. Some one needs fired if they convinced him of that or if he actually believes it. Its the stupidest comment.

Xavier's non conference schedule is nothing to brag about. You're also dismissing the value of them playing in the BE where they will have way more chances at top 25 victories than us. Conference play means a lot, something the AAC has not be able to deliever.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Last year it was "You need Top 50 wins"...

This year we load the schedule with tons of Top 50 opportunities and it's "No, no, no! It's all about non-con SOS!"

I can't keep up with that stuff.

I know this: There are a TON of games on our schedule that I absolutely cannot wait to watch. And as UCalum said, if some of those AAC teams get better, we're going to have even more good "data points".

Also, we won't fall in KenPom if we beat those bad teams by 60, right? So the only downside is non-con SOS? And that's also assuming none of those teams are any better than last year? Bc even a small improvement when you're that low can bump you up quite a bit I'd imagine.

Idk. I'm not going to get bent out of shape about it. I'm going to trust that if the committee sees us beating teams like UCLA, Florida, Xavier, Miss St, and Wichita State x2, we'll get the benefit of the doubt. Last year was just X, Iowa St, Butler, and I guess Rhode Island on that level.

If the rest of the AAC does their part, we'll have a good resume in March.

 

[ervins84]

Id be willing to bet 50 bucks that UC's Non conference SOS will be 40 spots lower than it was last year.

Id also be willing to bet that a team like Xavier's Non Conference SOS is much better than ours and they play in a better league.

Like, Im looking at it 2 ways: One way is if this was the best they could get based on playing at NKU's arena and the constraints regarding that. Then yea Im ok with it, but it still sucks. But if whoever built our schedule, looked over the schedule and thought; Damn I did a good job, then they need to be fired ASAP. And they understand very little about gaming the RPI/KP.

Lets compare it to Xavier's schedule.

Xavier's 4 best games are: @Wisconsin, Baylor, Cincinnati, East Tennesee State
UC's Best 4 games: @UCLA, @Xavier, Florida, Miss State

At Glance it looks like our 4 best games are way way better and thus our SOS should be much much higher

But then you look and realize Xavier plays just 1 300+ game and has a bunch of really great buy games.

UC's Average opponent KP rank: 180
Xavier's: 125

Xavier is going to potentially never even be challenged in its non conference and yet is going to walk away with a high SOS rank and completely gamed the rankings. UC has 4 chances to lose and then a bunch of cupcakes that move the needle backwards.

the only reason I say don't fire who ever made this schedule is because of our NKU issue. IF they do anything like this in the future, that person needs fired ASAP because they don't understand scheduling or analytics.


Add in that; UC need absolutely nothing to get people to show up to games. They used the new Arena to hold season ticket holders into buying tickets this year and yet we bring in 1 decent school to play in front of the fans; and then the worst buy games you can buy. Yay for Savannah State and Alabama State... Gonna be a roaring excited crowd for that one

I don't think the committee really values kpom SOS or overall ranking, unless something has changed. It's still mostly defaulted to record vs RPI top 50, RPI team sheets etc. So far they've seemed to mostly "use" kpom as a safety net to include teams in the tournament ( but still slam their seeding- see Wichita State last year)

 

[justinhub2003]

Xavier's non conference schedule is nothing to brag about. You're also dismissing the value of them playing in the BE where they will have way more chances at top 25 victories than us. Conference play means a lot, something the AAC has not be able to deliever.

Mark it down: Xavier non conference will be 30-40 better than ours. I’d take bets on it too

 

[justinhub2003]

Committee values challenging your self in non conference. 5 300+ is the exact opposite of that.

I have no idea why you guys are defending this schedule. I love the marquee games. Just not the rest.

Come selection sunday; come back to this post and you’ll understand why I was concerned.

Top 50 wins are great. But miss state may not be a top 50 teams which means we could finish with 3 max top 50 wins. And then a schedule full of cupcakes,


I honestly just the committee takes into consideration our arena situation. Would be nice if all our home games were considered neutrals.

 

[justinhub2003]

Last year it was "You need Top 50 wins"...

This year we load the schedule with tons of Top 50 opportunities and it's "No, no, no! It's all about non-con SOS!"

I can't keep up with that stuff.

I know this: There are a TON of games on our schedule that I absolutely cannot wait to watch. And as UCalum said, if some of those AAC teams get better, we're going to have even more good "data points".

Also, we won't fall in KenPom if we beat those bad teams by 60, right? So the only downside is non-con SOS? And that's also assuming none of those teams are any better than last year? Bc even a small improvement when you're that low can bump you up quite a bit I'd imagine.

Idk. I'm not going to get bent out of shape about it. I'm going to trust that if the committee sees us beating teams like UCLA, Florida, Xavier, Miss St, and Wichita State x2, we'll get the benefit of the doubt. Last year was just X, Iowa St, Butler, and I guess Rhode Island on that level.

If the rest of the AAC does their part, we'll have a good resume in March.

The teams we schedule historically bad, don't count on any of them making huge jumps.

Last 3 year Kenpom rankings of each team:
Alabama State: 265, 286, 342 (Actually regressing not getting better)
Coppin State: 325, 333, 343
Arkansas Pine Bluff: 324, 344, 348
Western Carolina: 234, 195, 322 (our best chance at moving up, used to be a decent buy game)
Savanah State: 338, 332, 317


We scheduled consistently bad teams for the most part. Don't get your hopes up that they will sudden be top 250 teams next year.

 

[ervins84]

Committee values challenging your self in non conference. 5 300+ is the exact opposite of that.

I have no idea why you guys are defending this schedule. I love the marquee games. Just not the rest.

Come selection sunday; come back to this post and you’ll understand why I was concerned.

Top 50 wins are great. But miss state may not be a top 50 teams which means we could finish with 3 max top 50 wins. And then a schedule full of cupcakes,


I honestly just the committee takes into consideration our arena situation. Would be nice if all our home games were considered neutrals.

I wish I was ever as confident in anything as you are about how a group of X number of people (who change every year) and you don't even know who they are, are going to value and assign a weight to something that is entirely dependent on a bunch of games that haven't even been played yet.

About the only thing I can guarantee you is that kenpom SOS has been discussed in this thread more than will take place in any committee meeting.

They care about RPI. (Stupidly, but they do)