Houston

[Queens_NYC]

Sunday, February 6th, 2022
6:00 pm
Fifth Third Arena
ESPN2

Houston (19-2, 8-0 AAC, NET #2, KenPom #5) enter this weekend's match-up on the backs of a 11-game winning streak despite dealing with season-ending injuries to guards Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark in late 2021.

The Cougars have settled into an 8-man rotation and, once again, have achieved excellency through the typical pillars of Kelvin Sampson basketball: playing at a slow tempo that emphasizes taking care of the ball, and performing at an elite level on the glass and the defensive end of the court.

Houston is anchored by 4th-year Texas Tech transfer 6'4 Kyler Edwards ,who is their leading scorer (14, 6, & 3/game on 37% 3FG), and 5th-year UConn transfer 6'11 Josh Carlton, who ranks top 10 in the country in PER.

Even though Houston has lost their only Q1 match-ups of the year so far, those losses were to KP #26 Wisconsin by 2 on a neutral court and KP #19 Alabama by 1 in Tuscaloosa.

Point blank, the Bearcats will need to produce one of their best showings of the season to win this game.

 

[justinhub2003]

Let’s bring the noise and beat these dudes… and if we can’t beat ‘em, let’s bite em like they did us

 

[waterhead]

Let’s bring the noise and beat these dudes… and if we can’t beat ‘em, let’s bite em like they did us

Absolutely gotta have this game. I expect all out war on D!!

 

[sedziobs]

Houston is #2 overall on Torvik, #6 on offense and #5 on defense. As usual, they are an elite offensive rebounding team, grabbing 38.5% of their misses. They are also top 10 in several defensive categories including 2pt & 3pt defense, turnovers forced, and blocked shots. On offense they are top 50 in shooting and taking care of the ball. There aren't many holes with this team, but the free throw line is Houston's biggest weakness. They only shoot 66% at the line and they send opponents there a lot. They also give up a lot of three point looks.

I say we let it fly from three in this one. We aren't likely to win anyway, so might as well opt for the high variance strategy and hope we shoot it like we did against Memphis and Tulsa. On defense I think we should use our depth and foul them rather than give up layups. The entire team is very efficient at the rim. Only Edwards and Shead shoot over 65% from the line among players with 12+ mpg. Carlton is their most efficient scorer and has the highest usage, but he only shoots 56% at the line. We should be fouling him a lot. With Sasser out, only Edwards and White shoot over 29% from three, so best not to help off of them.

This game is winnable if we shoot it well and can avoid a bloodbath on the glass. Those are two huge ifs.

 

[justinhub2003]

UC has the number 1 defensive eFG% in the country.

This is a defensive blood bath on paper

 

[skyblade]

Houston is #2 overall on Torvik, #6 on offense and #5 on defense. As usual, they are an elite offensive rebounding team, grabbing 38.5% of their misses. They are also top 10 in several defensive categories including 2pt & 3pt defense, turnovers forced, and blocked shots. On offense they are top 50 in shooting and taking care of the ball. There aren't many holes with this team, but the free throw line is Houston's biggest weakness. They only shoot 66% at the line and they send opponents there a lot. They also give up a lot of three point looks.

I say we let it fly from three in this one. We aren't likely to win anyway, so might as well opt for the high variance strategy and hope we shoot it like we did against Memphis and Tulsa. On defense I think we should use our depth and foul them rather than give up layups. The entire team is very efficient at the rim. Only Edwards and Shead shoot over 65% from the line among players with 12+ mpg. Carlton is their most efficient scorer and has the highest usage, but he only shoots 56% at the line. We should be fouling him a lot. With Sasser out, only Edwards and White shoot over 29% from three, so best not to help off of them.

This game is winnable if we shoot it well and can avoid a bloodbath on the glass. Those are two huge ifs.

Seems like a great game to go big and pack the paint. White isn't a guy who is going to create his own shot, just don't help off of him or lose track of him in transition. So the guards really only have to worry about not letting Edwards get threes off.

My guess is that Houston will pound it inside with White/Carlton and make us prove we can guard them. Davenport is going to have a challenge on his hands with White. Ado is probably our best bet against Carlton, not sure Ody will be able to handle him.

Other than stopping Houston on the boards and shooting well, the other key is not committing TO's. Houston forces a lot of them and doesn't commit many. As you say, probably a good game to let it fly and hope we are hot.

 

[skyblade]

Maybe we'll score 40 points.

 

[skyblade]

Maybe don't help off white, I think that was probably mentioned in the scouting report.

 

[Bearcat_Z]

UH blowout looming . . .

 

[Bcatfollower]

This game is exactly why Miller’s offensive philosophy is terrible. Quick bad shots that we’ve been doing all year with zero correction. When you play good teams they eat it up.

 

[Bcatfollower]

Saunders… could pass to maw for wide open 3 in the corner, nope he goes 1 on 3 and just throws it up.

Did the 5 star make it for his visit? Lol

 

[skyblade]

We are demonstrating for the 5 star that there are plenty of minutes to go around for a good player.

 

[Bcatfollower]

We are demonstrating for the 5 star that there are plenty of minutes to go around for a good player.

Very true. Hope that’s the take…

 

[skyblade]

Put up a nice fight at the end of the first half, if we start the second half well we can be right back in it.

 

[skyblade]

Davenport has been getting abuse 1v1 on the defensive end tonight.

 

[Bcatfollower]

We don’t have the talent or drive to be good.

 

[Bearcat_Z]

Davenport’s game is not suited for a high-major program. He is only a spot-up shooter at best.

 

[skyblade]

I don't think we are that far behind talent wise, but we have guys who are inexperienced and new to Miller's system. Guys like Ody, Lakhin and Hensley have the athletic ability, but they don't have enough experience.

Also doesn't help that our two leaders (DDJ and Davenport) have little interest in doing anything but forcing up tough iso shots (though DDJ did pass better in the second half tonight). Hard to run good offensive sets when your two main guys don't.

 

[Bcatfollower]

I don't think we are that far behind talent wise, but we have guys who are inexperienced and new to Miller's system. Guys like Ody, Lakhin and Hensley have the athletic ability, but they don't have enough experience.

Also doesn't help that our two leaders (DDJ and Davenport) have little interest in doing anything but forcing up tough iso shots (though DDJ did pass better in the second half tonight). Hard to run good offensive sets when your two main guys don't.

So does Davenport come off the bench next year? Besides your accurate comments on his offense he gets torched on D. Slow footed and often out of position.

 

[sedziobs]

Also doesn't help that our two leaders (DDJ and Davenport) have little interest in doing anything but forcing up tough iso shots (though DDJ did pass better in the second half tonight). Hard to run good offensive sets when your two main guys don't.

Unfortunately I think that's a feature, not a bug. Miller's teams have always done that.

I think the effort is fine. Offensive talent and strategy are nowhere near Houston's level.