Throwing Bailey second in the Divisional series makes sense actually. The Reds are in position to open on the road, as crazy as that sounds. Bailey's ERA on the road is below 3. At home it is over 5. That would be the reason to pitch Bailey second.
If we're in Atlanta, St. Louis, or especially Pitts, I'd throw Bailey or Arroyo game 2. However, if we play LAD or SF, Latos dominates out there. You have to go Cueto/Latos 1/2.
Bailey is a very good pitcher on the road, and very average at home. Putting him in the second game (with a 2-3 format this year) is a very good strategy.