How does UC finish this year?

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Stole this from Lance. Good question though.
With 10 games left, and a need to at least go .500 onward...how does UC finish?



UC has collapsed down the stretch in each of the last three years:

2007-2008
UC stood 13-12 after a February 20 win over South Florida.
UC then lost seven straight games to end the season..including a loss to Pitt in the first round of the Big East tournament and a loss to Bradley in the first round of the CBI.
UC finished the season 13-19

2008-2009
UC stood 17-8 after a February 11 win over St John's
UC then to lost 6 of their next 7...including a loss at South Florida, a home loss to Seton Hall and a first round Big East tournament loss to DePaul (DePaul had been winless in conference play).
UC finished the season 18-14

2009-2010
UC stood 14-7 after a January 30 win over Providence
UC then lost 7 of their next 9 heading into the Big East tournament.
UC finished the season 19-16

http://homer247.com/pages/lancesBlog.html
 
Regardless of how you feel about this particular team's chances down the stretch, it's clear to me that they are vastly different in a lot of "intangible" areas than the teams of the past three years... therefore I'm not concerned about an end of the year collapse... I think we end up with 23 wins going into the Big East tournament.
 
222ucpredictedoverallwi.png


333kpomconfwinsproject.png



im overly optimistic right now though and like their chances of going 25-6 12-6 in conf.
 
25-6 going into MSG would be exceptional and vastly greater than anyone's expectations to start the year I think. And it would probably be good for a 4 seed, too.
 
i seriously think 7-3 with losses to pitt, georgetown and marquette and if they lose to providence on the road i wouldnt be disappointed thats 24-6 going into the beast tournament and a lock for the tourney
 
I say they finish 5-5 the rest of the way and get 1 more win in the BET to finish 24-9. This lands them a 7 seed in the tournament. They win another 50/50 game and then get beat by the #2 seed. Nothing to sneeze at and something to build on.

You have to be happy with that.

Realistically our goals for this season should've been...
Restore home court advantage (undefeated currently)
Finish in top half of BEast
Make NCAA tourney
Win an NCAA game

The above scenerio accomplishes all of those goals. From where we are now, we are almost in a position to think about pushing ourselves for higher goals. IMO, we're now striving towards..

Undefeated at home
Reach BET semis
Reach NCAA sweet 16
 
ervins84 said:
222ucpredictedoverallwi.png


333kpomconfwinsproject.png



im overly optimistic right now though and like their chances of going 25-6 12-6 in conf.
Click to expand...

Good work with this chart and with the attached image in the other (RPI) thread. It really brings a lot to the discussion IMO. Rep'd
 
ucswais said:
I say they finish 5-5 the rest of the way and get 1 more win in the BET to finish 24-9. This lands them a 7 seed in the tournament. They win another 50/50 game and then get beat by the #2 seed. Nothing to sneeze at and something to build on.

You have to be happy with that.

Realistically our goals for this season should've been...
Restore home court advantage (undefeated currently)Finish in top half of BEast
Make NCAA tourney
Win an NCAA game
The above scenerio accomplishes all of those goals. From where we are now, we are almost in a position to think about pushing ourselves for higher goals. IMO, we're now striving towards..

Undefeated at home
Reach BET semis
Reach NCAA sweet 16
Click to expand...

There is a lot of basketball left to be played and this squad has to prove they can seal the deal. Mental toughness never meant more then it does now.

My question would be how many would have thought that 21 games in they would have even been in this position. I'm not sure many did.
 
There are some outsiders predicting we finish 3-7. This is "possible" but not very probable, IMO. Yes, I'm aware there is a chart with the percentage of us finishing with certain amounts of wins, but realistically, here is how I see it stacking up. I expect to beat WVU, DePaul, SJU, Lville and Georgetown @ home. That is 5 wins, which takes us to 10 total. I think we have legit chances at Providence, Georgetown and Uconn @ home.

Sat., Jan. 29 vs. West Virginia (likely win)
Sat., Feb. 5 at Pittsburgh (loss)
Tue., Feb. 8 at DePaul (win)
Sun., Feb. 13 vs. St. John's (likely win)
Wed., Feb. 16 vs. Louisville (likely win)
Sat., Feb. 19 at Providence (?)
Wed., Feb. 23 at Georgetown (likely loss)
Sun., Feb. 27 vs. Connecticut (?)
Wed., Mar. 2 at Marquette (likely loss)
Sat., Mar. 5 vs. Georgetown (?/likely win)
 
BearcatAlum1 said:
There are some outsiders predicting we finish 3-7. This is "possible" but not very probable, IMO. Yes, I'm aware there is a chart with the percentage of us finishing with certain amounts of wins, but realistically, here is how I see it stacking up. I expect to beat WVU, DePaul, SJU, Lville and Georgetown @ home. That is 5 wins, which takes us to 10 total. I think we have legit chances at Providence, Georgetown and Uconn @ home.

Sat., Jan. 29 vs. West Virginia (likely win)
Sat., Feb. 5 at Pittsburgh (loss)
Tue., Feb. 8 at DePaul (win)
Sun., Feb. 13 vs. St. John's (likely win)
Wed., Feb. 16 vs. Louisville (likely win)
Sat., Feb. 19 at Providence (?)
Wed., Feb. 23 at Georgetown (likely loss)
Sun., Feb. 27 vs. Connecticut (?)
Wed., Mar. 2 at Marquette (likely loss)
Sat., Mar. 5 vs. Georgetown (?/likely win)
Click to expand...

I would agree with this. The next 5 games are especially crucial, as winning 4 of these is a must. That would take a lot of pressure off the last 5, as winning 1 would put them in the tourney. Holding serve at home is what they have to, and are, concentrating on.
 
At the end of it all, I can see us entering selection Sunday ranked in the top 30. A 7 seed is a reasonable expectation.
 
babcat said:
7 seed is reasonable, but I think the Cats can pull off a 4 or a 5 seed. Gut feeling, I can't explain it.
Click to expand...

I think it is going to go down like this. 10-8 in league play gets us a 7 seed. 11-7 gets us a 6. 12-6 gets us a 5. Anything better than that gets us a 4. This is assuming 1 and 1 in the BEAST Tourney. If the Bearcats make a deep run like last year, it could bump us up a line.
 
babcat said:
7 seed is reasonable, but I think the Cats can pull off a 4 or a 5 seed. Gut feeling, I can't explain it.
Click to expand...

I would love a 7 seed.....preferably in Cleveland or Chicago.

Honestly, I'll take our team against a #2 BYU or #2 SDST. I wouldn't even consider it an upset.....assuming we don't implode and miss the tourney. :eek:
 
I too believe that there is a chance at a 5 seed. Don't think they'll make it to a 4. I just feel like they haven't played their best basketball yet and it's coming. The Big East games are helping them grow and the next month is going to be very fun to watch.
 
UC: Fade to black.....again?
After starting 15-0 this season UC has gone 3-5.......

2007-2008UC stood 13-12 after a February 20 win over South Florida.
UC then lost seven straight games to end the season..including a loss to Pitt in the first round of the Big East tournament and a loss to Bradley in the first round of the CBI.
UC finished the season 13-19

2008-2009UC stood 17-8 after a February 11 win over St John's
UC then to lost 6 of their next 7...including a loss at South Florida, a home loss to Seton Hall and a first round Big East tournament loss to DePaul (DePaul had been winless in conference play).
UC finished the season 18-14

2009-2010UC stood 14-7 after a January 30 win over Providence
UC then lost 7 of their next 9 heading into the Big East tournament.
UC finished the season 19

http://homer247.com/pages/lancesBlog.html
 

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