How Will They Finish? Cross Our Fingers

[ervins84]

In my free time i follow the vegas point spreads pretty closely, and with using that, kenpom/sagarin/and the LRMC im generally pretty accurate on what the future point spreads will be for UC games. Really, these arent that difficult to estimate anyways, (just account for 3.5-4.5 pts for hca, check the kpom #s, see whos ranked similarly in previous games and what the spreads were in those games.

vs Depaul bare min 10 pt favorites, probably will be 13.5
@ ST Johns 3.5 point fav
@ Marq 8 pt underdog (im being conservative here, Seton halls only +8.5 @ Marq in their next meeting)
vs Prov bare min 10 pt favorite, probably about 11-12
vs Seton Hall 6-7 point favorite
vs Ville 2 pt favorite
@ S Fla 2-3 pt favorite
vs Marq Pickem
@ Nova Pickem This is the one game that could swing the most imo and UC may end up as a small dog in this game, as NOVA is playing so much better really ever since the loss to UC that they played well in. Yea Theyre only 2-3 including the UC game, but wins @ ST Johns and vs Hall are legit good wins and their losses arent exactly bad L's being @ ville and a 4 pt home loss to marq in which they had a huge lead.


9 games left

2 large favorites
1 medium favorite
3 small favorites
2 coin flips
1 true underdog

While not exact, I looked for other games with those same point spread ranges and checked the Moneylines for those games. From there, you can do the easy math to get the win probability %. I capped the Depaul and Prov at -750 though bc this team is never going to be >90% to beat anyone after seeing how bad they are when they play poorly.


vs Dep= -750 ML = .8824 Win Probability
@STJohns= -155 = .6078
@ Marq = +385 = .2062
vs Prov= -750 = .8824
VS SHall= -300 = .75
vs Ville= -115 = .5349
@ S FLA= -140 = .5833
vs Marq= +100 = .5
vs Nova= +100 = .5

Those WP's add up to 5.44 more wins

Basically meaning this team is likely to end up with 10 or 11 wins BE reg season wins and is gonna be smack dab in the center of the bubble come selection sunday. Gonna be a stressful day to say the least.

 

[bearcat jeff]

In my free time i follow the vegas point spreads pretty closely, and with using that, kenpom/sagarin/and the LRMC im generally pretty accurate on what the future point spreads will be for UC games. Really, these arent that difficult to estimate anyways, (just account for 3.5-4.5 pts for hca, check the kpom #s, see whos ranked similarly in previous games and what the spreads were in those games.

vs Depaul bare min 10 pt favorites, probably will be 13.5
@ ST Johns 3.5 point fav
@ Marq 8 pt underdog (im being conservative here, Seton halls only +8.5 @ Marq in their next meeting)
vs Prov bare min 10 pt favorite, probably about 11-12
vs Seton Hall 6-7 point favorite
vs Ville 2 pt favorite
@ S Fla 2-3 pt favorite
vs Marq Pickem
@ Nova Pickem This is the one game that could swing the most imo and UC may end up as a small dog in this game, as NOVA is playing so much better really ever since the loss to UC that they played well in. Yea Theyre only 2-3 including the UC game, but wins @ ST Johns and vs Hall are legit good wins and their losses arent exactly bad L's being @ ville and a 4 pt home loss to marq in which they had a huge lead.


9 games left

2 large favorites
1 medium favorite
3 small favorites
2 coin flips
1 true underdog

While not exact, I looked for other games with those same point spread ranges and checked the Moneylines for those games. From there, you can do the easy math to get the win probability %. I capped the Depaul and Prov at -750 though bc this team is never going to be >90% to beat anyone after seeing how bad they are when they play poorly.


vs Dep= -750 ML = .8824 Win Probability
@STJohns= -155 = .6078
@ Marq = +385 = .2062
vs Prov= -750 = .8824
VS SHall= -300 = .75
vs Ville= -115 = .5349
@ S FLA= -140 = .5833
vs Marq= +100 = .5
vs Nova= +100 = .5

Those WP's add up to 5.44 more wins

Basically meaning this team is likely to end up with 10 or 11 wins BE reg season wins and is gonna be smack dab in the center of the bubble come selection sunday. Gonna be a stressful day to say the least.

Could come down to the tournament.

 

[waterhead]

In my free time i follow the vegas point spreads pretty closely, and with using that, kenpom/sagarin/and the LRMC im generally pretty accurate on what the future point spreads will be for UC games. Really, these arent that difficult to estimate anyways, (just account for 3.5-4.5 pts for hca, check the kpom #s, see whos ranked similarly in previous games and what the spreads were in those games.

vs Depaul bare min 10 pt favorites, probably will be 13.5
@ ST Johns 3.5 point fav
@ Marq 8 pt underdog (im being conservative here, Seton halls only +8.5 @ Marq in their next meeting)
vs Prov bare min 10 pt favorite, probably about 11-12
vs Seton Hall 6-7 point favorite
vs Ville 2 pt favorite
@ S Fla 2-3 pt favorite
vs Marq Pickem
@ Nova Pickem This is the one game that could swing the most imo and UC may end up as a small dog in this game, as NOVA is playing so much better really ever since the loss to UC that they played well in. Yea Theyre only 2-3 including the UC game, but wins @ ST Johns and vs Hall are legit good wins and their losses arent exactly bad L's being @ ville and a 4 pt home loss to marq in which they had a huge lead.


9 games left

2 large favorites
1 medium favorite
3 small favorites
2 coin flips
1 true underdog

While not exact, I looked for other games with those same point spread ranges and checked the Moneylines for those games. From there, you can do the easy math to get the win probability %. I capped the Depaul and Prov at -750 though bc this team is never going to be >90% to beat anyone after seeing how bad they are when they play poorly.


vs Dep= -750 ML = .8824 Win Probability
@STJohns= -155 = .6078
@ Marq = +385 = .2062
vs Prov= -750 = .8824
VS SHall= -300 = .75
vs Ville= -115 = .5349
@ S FLA= -140 = .5833
vs Marq= +100 = .5
vs Nova= +100 = .5

Those WP's add up to 5.44 more wins

Basically meaning this team is likely to end up with 10 or 11 wins BE reg season wins and is gonna be smack dab in the center of the bubble come selection sunday. Gonna be a stressful day to say the least.

I think it would be fair to categorize this as...

3 should wins (5+ points)
5 basically toss ups (3 or less pts)
1 should lose (5+ points)

On paper we need to pull out all the "should wins" and 3 of 5 "toss ups". Or any combination of 6 wins. I think that will get us in the dance. If we only win 5 I think we are going to need to make it to the finals of the BE tourney to offset the OOC SOS. If we win 4 or less we are going to have to win the tourney.

 

[Bearcat04]

They way I see it, if this team is indeed a tournament team then they shouldn't have too much trouble getting 6-7 more wins. I just hope when they go to Nova they are looking for win #12, not #11.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

They way I see it, if this team is indeed a tournament team then they shouldn't have too much trouble getting 6-7 more wins. I just hope when they go to Nova they are looking for win #12, not #11.

I agree, I don't like playing another team on their senior night needing a W. That game at Nova concerns me. They are playing well. It took all we had to beat them here.

 

[ralph1950]

6-3, for 11-7 in Big East.

 

[Bearcat04]

I agree, I don't like playing another team on their senior night needing a W. That game at Nova concerns me. They are playing well. It took all we had to beat them here.

The good thing is that Nova doesn't have any Seniors that play, and I don't see Wayns, Cheek, or Yarou leaving for the NBA. They did surprise us last year when they went to Marquette and won a big game on Senior Night.

 

[bearcat jeff]

I believe UC needs to win 6 of 9.

 

[TheLivingLegend]

I believe UC needs to win 6 of 9.

But.... can they win 6 of 9

 

[UCBearcats]

In my free time i follow the vegas point spreads pretty closely, and with using that, kenpom/sagarin/and the LRMC im generally pretty accurate on what the future point spreads will be for UC games. Really, these arent that difficult to estimate anyways, (just account for 3.5-4.5 pts for hca, check the kpom #s, see whos ranked similarly in previous games and what the spreads were in those games.

vs Depaul bare min 10 pt favorites, probably will be 13.5
@ ST Johns 3.5 point fav
@ Marq 8 pt underdog (im being conservative here, Seton halls only +8.5 @ Marq in their next meeting)
vs Prov bare min 10 pt favorite, probably about 11-12
vs Seton Hall 6-7 point favorite
vs Ville 2 pt favorite
@ S Fla 2-3 pt favorite
vs Marq Pickem
@ Nova Pickem This is the one game that could swing the most imo and UC may end up as a small dog in this game, as NOVA is playing so much better really ever since the loss to UC that they played well in. Yea Theyre only 2-3 including the UC game, but wins @ ST Johns and vs Hall are legit good wins and their losses arent exactly bad L's being @ ville and a 4 pt home loss to marq in which they had a huge lead.


9 games left

2 large favorites
1 medium favorite
3 small favorites
2 coin flips
1 true underdog

While not exact, I looked for other games with those same point spread ranges and checked the Moneylines for those games. From there, you can do the easy math to get the win probability %. I capped the Depaul and Prov at -750 though bc this team is never going to be >90% to beat anyone after seeing how bad they are when they play poorly.


vs Dep= -750 ML = .8824 Win Probability
@STJohns= -155 = .6078
@ Marq = +385 = .2062
vs Prov= -750 = .8824
VS SHall= -300 = .75
vs Ville= -115 = .5349
@ S FLA= -140 = .5833
vs Marq= +100 = .5
vs Nova= +100 = .5

Those WP's add up to 5.44 more wins

Basically meaning this team is likely to end up with 10 or 11 wins BE reg season wins and is gonna be smack dab in the center of the bubble come selection sunday. Gonna be a stressful day to say the least.

Wow, that's awesome!!!

Now all we have to do is actually go out and play the games. As we all saw against Pres, UConn, G'Town, Rutgers, ect Vegas lines and WP's don't really mean crap.

I've never understood why anyone would put any stock in this kind of a system. 9 games left, lot's of things can still happen.

 

[ervins84]

Wow, that's awesome!!!

Now all we have to do is actually go out and play the games. As we all saw against Pres, UConn, G'Town, Rutgers, ect Vegas lines and WP's don't really mean crap.

I've never understood why anyone would put any stock in this kind of a system. 9 games left, lot's of things can still happen.

Wow, thats awesome!!! Thanks for the contribution. I never ever could have deduced that favorites that have a barely greater than 50% chance of winning a game are gonna lose that game a decent amount. Arent you soooo smart for pointing out a team thats favored doesnt win every game its favored in. I dont think anyone understood that before your post. Its almost, like exactly what a WP is.

It sounds more like you dont understand how WP's really work, bc of course underdogs win games. And as for the Rutgers game, I mean UC was a whopping 2 point favorite bc it was a road game.

This way of looking at things is how a teams over/under win total is determined by this method, which is fairly relevant for setting expecations. Im sorry that a team thats a slight favorite doesnt win 100% of the time....I cant imagine why they dont.

Of course "Anything can happen" sure they could go 0-9 or 9-0 or 8-1 or any of the other combinations of finishes, but they arent likely to happen at all. This just lets us take a look at what is MOST LIKELY. If you ahve an issue with that, then just stop posting in my threads and acting like youre the only person that has a grasp on how underdogs can sometimes win games when thats the exact thing that WP's do a good job of pointing out.

 

[UCBearcats]

Wow, thats awesome!!! Thanks for the contribution. I never ever could have deduced that favorites that have a barely greater than 50% chance of winning a game are gonna lose that game a decent amount. Arent you soooo smart for pointing out a team thats favored doesnt win every game its favored in. I dont think anyone understood that before your post. Its almost, like exactly what a WP is.

It sounds more like you dont understand how WP's really work, bc of course underdogs win games. And as for the Rutgers game, I mean UC was a whopping 2 point favorite bc it was a road game.

This way of looking at things is how a teams over/under win total is determined by this method, which is fairly relevant for setting expecations. Im sorry that a team thats a slight favorite doesnt win 100% of the time....I cant imagine why they dont.

Of course "Anything can happen" sure they could go 0-9 or 9-0 or 8-1 or any of the other combinations of finishes, but they arent likely to happen at all. This just lets us take a look at what is MOST LIKELY. If you ahve an issue with that, then just stop posting in my threads and acting like youre the only person that has a grasp on how underdogs can sometimes win games when thats the exact thing that WP's do a good job of pointing out.

You mad bro?

 

[ervins84]

 

[Eternal E]

WP's are extremely accurate. If I recall properly it almost exactly predicted UC's win total last year. If you understand how its works its a good stat to use.

 

[UCalum08]

Kind of an interesting discussion I came across today at a work conference meeting today. I was next to a guy who played ball for USF a couple years ago and we got talking about the Big East. Starting talking to him about UC and how frustrating they have been the past couple years because of the inconsistency. He was saying how he and other people on his team thought/thinks UC has all the talent in the world to do well but they play to the level of their competition. He also spoke highly of Cronin and said their struggles aren't because of coaching. I found this interesting because he hit it on the head basically and interesting thats what players inside the league think of UC.

 

[ready2go]

Kind of an interesting discussion I came across today at a work conference meeting today. I was next to a guy who played ball for USF a couple years ago and we got talking about the Big East. Starting talking to him about UC and how frustrating they have been the past couple years because of the inconsistency. He was saying how he and other people on his team thought/thinks UC has all the talent in the world to do well but they play to the level of their competition. He also spoke highly of Cronin and said their struggles aren't because of coaching. I found this interesting because he hit it on the head basically and interesting thats what players inside the league think of UC.

Its hard to argue with a guy who played D1 ball, but when players come and go and inconsistencies commonly occur, its hard to argue Mick doesnt have anything to do with it.

I work with a kid who played at UK. I talk shit to him all the time about my Bearcats. He tries watching the games and said that he doesnt understand the offensive sets. He feels that is the reason they go on scoring droughts and lose focus. He says players need a scheme to buy into and when shots arent falling they need a set to fall back onto to get that easy, uncontested look to get the ball rolling again

 

[UCalum08]

Its hard to argue with a guy who played D1 ball, but when players come and go and inconsistencies commonly occur, its hard to argue Mick doesnt have anything to do with it.

I work with a kid who played at UK. I talk shit to him all the time about my Bearcats. He tries watching the games and said that he doesnt understand the offensive sets. He feels that is the reason they go on scoring droughts and lose focus. He says players need a scheme to buy into and when shots arent falling they need a set to fall back onto to get that easy, uncontested look to get the ball rolling again

Totally agree with that! Its interesting to hear past players view on things bc seems like what they say makes pretty good sense ha.

 

[bearcat jeff]

Dayton, UConn and some other schools UC will be competing for a spot with are struggling as well right now. That could be a positive.

 

[cincycpaw]

Kind of an interesting discussion I came across today at a work conference meeting today. I was next to a guy who played ball for USF a couple years ago and we got talking about the Big East. Starting talking to him about UC and how frustrating they have been the past couple years because of the inconsistency. He was saying how he and other people on his team thought/thinks UC has all the talent in the world to do well but they play to the level of their competition. He also spoke highly of Cronin and said their struggles aren't because of coaching. I found this interesting because he hit it on the head basically and interesting thats what players inside the league think of UC.

How is a team playing to the level of it's opponent not a coaching issue though?

 

[waterhead]

Its hard to argue with a guy who played D1 ball, but when players come and go and inconsistencies commonly occur, its hard to argue Mick doesnt have anything to do with it.

I work with a kid who played at UK. I talk shit to him all the time about my Bearcats. He tries watching the games and said that he doesnt understand the offensive sets. He feels that is the reason they go on scoring droughts and lose focus. He says players need a scheme to buy into and when shots arent falling they need a set to fall back onto to get that easy, uncontested look to get the ball rolling again

If UC...or any team for that matter...ever found a set which provided easy uncontested looks on demand...hopefully they call that play 100% of the time