JasonS
Football Moderator
By now you probably realize there are two types of people in this world; those who are sick and tired of expansion talk and those who are addicted to it. Odds are if you are a college football yoohoo (that's a compliment!) than you can't get enough of it. It's so addicting I haven't had the urge to smoke a cigarette in the last two weeks (the fact that I didn't smoke to begin with I feel is irrelevant)! With the first concrete sign of super conference expansion to likely be announced on Friday by Nebraska as they look towards their future in the Big Ten, we're about to tell you what this move implies for the likes of other schools such as Notre Dame and what other conferences next moves will be, like the SEC's.
The 'will they or won't they' talk will likely finally be put to rest as early as Friday as Nebraska announces their move to the Big Ten after their board of regents meeting. How they got in this position is in some part due to themselves, but is also the conferences own undoing. When Nebraska voted for unequal television revenue sharing in the later 1990's they were riding high as a national power enjoying the riches and booty (maybe more so the players that part) that many national broadcasts brought to them. The future seemed as bright and successful as their past was and if they had the chance to grab more money for themselves it seemed like an obvious choice. Fast forward to today and Nebraska is just now getting back towards some respect of national prominence after spending a sabbatical in obscurity away from the bright lights of national television. The new king in their area is Texas and they take the most television money due to the most appearances. Now that's a little misleading as Texas made less than $11 million in television contract money last year, which isn't too impressive when you realize a school such as Vanderbilt nearly doubled that at $18 million. The television contract the Big 12 agreed to was so atrociously set-up that they can't blame Nebraska for looking at brighter pastures that show them getting likely at least 3 times what they were making, and possibly over 4 times. The Big 12 put themselves in a position where they left most schools no choice but to be disgruntled, it's like the star quarterback (Texas) being forced to watch the school nerd (Vandy) take home the cheerleading captain and then having to hear all about it in math class. Eventually schools are going to want what's fair for themselves and to get a larger piece of the pie but with conferences getting their own networks, like the Big Ten Network, they can only see futures of their pieces getting smaller and smaller.
Where does this leave the Big 12 now without Nebraska? Well the talk from every source, including those at OrangeBloods.com, say Nebraska was the make or break school. They could have cared less whether or not Missouri left, sorry guys! Texas made it known if Nebraska left, they left, and if Texas leaves you can say goodnight to the Big 12. It's like Justin Timberlake leaving N'Sync, Joey Fatone can only do so many fat jokes about himself until people get tired of you. Texas will look at their options between the Big Ten and Pac 10 but no matter what they are leaving and their staff has been made aware of that. There is no saving the conference and Dan Beebe (Big XII Commissioner) will forever be remembered as the man who watched the ship sink and fade into oblivion.
The real issue now is determining what else this means, and that's where it gets fun. The finality of these should be known sometime soon as conferences will be in a rat race to fill up those spots and have been preparing to do so for some time now. Here is how we feel it shakes up given the info out there.
- Notre Dame joins the Big Ten. The Big Ten's goal was to add a powerhouse and there was only two they were considering, ND and Texas. Texas wants a few of their in-state buddies to join them but the Big Ten doesn't want any of the, ahem, rejects to dilute the conference. The Big Ten knew if they offered Nebraska that the Big 12 would end and the super conferences would be born. They also knew if they didn't add them, everything would remain status quo and they'd remain as the top revenue making conference in the country. The only way they expand is if they can add one of those big powers and remain at the top, so by adding Nebraska that's Jim Delaney saying he knows the risk. The only possible way you take that risk of putting your conference in jeopardy of falling down the revenue ladder is if you have word from one of those that they are in. Notre Dame is in. They are almost forced to join as they don't want to be left out of the last chance to join a conference and risking falling off the face of the map as an independent, as they are dancing precariously on that line to begin with. The bottom line here is the Big Ten would never put themselves in a position like this unless they know for certain, and multiple sources as I write this right now are reporting ND has agreed to make that move. (See, by the time I'm done with this article you may be already looking at a picture of Brian Kelly getting a welcome hug from Rich Rodriguez...ewwww!)
- Notre Dame (for some unknown reason) wants Missouri to join them. Does Mizzou's AD have nakey picures of Swarbrick, I don't know, but ND will get what they want. That's 3 schools that brings the Big Ten to, err, 14 now. That leaves 2 spots open which will be offered to Texas with one other spot which means they can't bring along their slow bus friends. Will Texas take that? We don't know yet, but it puts the Big Ten in a position to say, 'whoops, sorry, we'd love to take your friends but we only have 2 seats left....' thus allowing themselves to sidestep that situation and allowing Texas to say to their legislation that they can't do anything about it and can only bring one with them. Will that work?
- Maybe, maybe not. They'd prefer to stay with their regional foes of Tech, A&M, OU, OSU, etc. With two spots left the Big Ten will likely look towards Maryland or Rutgers, or maybe both. There was word that it might be those schools and Syracuse instead of Missouri, but really when you are debating between Mizzou or Syracuse this isn't really ground breaking news so we brush it to the side because the affect on the Big East and ACC is already done.
- The SEC isn't forced to expand like some of the other conferences are but they will attempt to get the schools they want. Who would those schools be? There is nobody on the East Coast terribly enticing to them. UNC is one often rumored but due to UNC's wealthy endowment of nearly $2 billion, money doesn't talk to them like it does to other schools. On top of that, the ACC is a basketball conference and the only one that can say basketball does as well for them revenue wise as football. Texas A&M and Oklahoma are two expansions into the west that would offer the new markets the SEC wants that would help drive their television contracts up, and that's the whole point of this. Look for the SEC to push hard for their services while giving the Pac 10 a tough time.
- If it does turn out to be Maryland, Syracuse, and Rutgers the ACC and Big East will both be left a little bare. The Big East will be more so n that position as their football conference will be nearly gone. But, they have something to offer the ACC. These are the two basketball conferences in the country that demand top dollar, so why not combine forces to make their own 16 team conference with who they have left? That makes an easy fit with the two of them merging and the locations are perfect. Almost makes too much sense to make sense...that's deep.
- The Pac 10 will try to add the six they offered already, but if any of those schools decide to head to the SEC instead look for schools such as Utah to get an offer to join, which is a much bigger market than most would expect.
- The next battle will be between the MWC and WAC to see who can pick up the leftovers. Most think initially it'd be the MWC but the WAC has the bigger markets that could entice those other schools, such as a Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., and Iowa State to join.
- With the departure of two conferences (Big East and Big 12) you open up too more automatic berths into the BCS which they obviously would fully support then as they can pick the schools that will bring them in the biggest returns. Heck, if the MWC adds those aforementioned schools they could get one of those 2 opened BCS slots since they already were close to getting one (or at least being teased with one). The BCS would still be left with an extra slot to give out to their choosing.
The good news is that by this time next week we should all have a much, much clearer understanding of who is going where. Conferences will be forced to act quickly because many schools will be at risk at falling through the cracks and determined to seek shelter. The Big Ten would have loved to have waited another 6 months or so but we can all thank the Pac 10 for forcing their hands and making a real lovely mess of things. The moves in the coming days will forever change college football as we know it and Dan Beebe has nobody to blame but his own conference for the television contract that doomed and ended the Big 12 as we once knew it.
http://tharinger.com/site/Expansion.htm
The 'will they or won't they' talk will likely finally be put to rest as early as Friday as Nebraska announces their move to the Big Ten after their board of regents meeting. How they got in this position is in some part due to themselves, but is also the conferences own undoing. When Nebraska voted for unequal television revenue sharing in the later 1990's they were riding high as a national power enjoying the riches and booty (maybe more so the players that part) that many national broadcasts brought to them. The future seemed as bright and successful as their past was and if they had the chance to grab more money for themselves it seemed like an obvious choice. Fast forward to today and Nebraska is just now getting back towards some respect of national prominence after spending a sabbatical in obscurity away from the bright lights of national television. The new king in their area is Texas and they take the most television money due to the most appearances. Now that's a little misleading as Texas made less than $11 million in television contract money last year, which isn't too impressive when you realize a school such as Vanderbilt nearly doubled that at $18 million. The television contract the Big 12 agreed to was so atrociously set-up that they can't blame Nebraska for looking at brighter pastures that show them getting likely at least 3 times what they were making, and possibly over 4 times. The Big 12 put themselves in a position where they left most schools no choice but to be disgruntled, it's like the star quarterback (Texas) being forced to watch the school nerd (Vandy) take home the cheerleading captain and then having to hear all about it in math class. Eventually schools are going to want what's fair for themselves and to get a larger piece of the pie but with conferences getting their own networks, like the Big Ten Network, they can only see futures of their pieces getting smaller and smaller.
Where does this leave the Big 12 now without Nebraska? Well the talk from every source, including those at OrangeBloods.com, say Nebraska was the make or break school. They could have cared less whether or not Missouri left, sorry guys! Texas made it known if Nebraska left, they left, and if Texas leaves you can say goodnight to the Big 12. It's like Justin Timberlake leaving N'Sync, Joey Fatone can only do so many fat jokes about himself until people get tired of you. Texas will look at their options between the Big Ten and Pac 10 but no matter what they are leaving and their staff has been made aware of that. There is no saving the conference and Dan Beebe (Big XII Commissioner) will forever be remembered as the man who watched the ship sink and fade into oblivion.
The real issue now is determining what else this means, and that's where it gets fun. The finality of these should be known sometime soon as conferences will be in a rat race to fill up those spots and have been preparing to do so for some time now. Here is how we feel it shakes up given the info out there.
- Notre Dame joins the Big Ten. The Big Ten's goal was to add a powerhouse and there was only two they were considering, ND and Texas. Texas wants a few of their in-state buddies to join them but the Big Ten doesn't want any of the, ahem, rejects to dilute the conference. The Big Ten knew if they offered Nebraska that the Big 12 would end and the super conferences would be born. They also knew if they didn't add them, everything would remain status quo and they'd remain as the top revenue making conference in the country. The only way they expand is if they can add one of those big powers and remain at the top, so by adding Nebraska that's Jim Delaney saying he knows the risk. The only possible way you take that risk of putting your conference in jeopardy of falling down the revenue ladder is if you have word from one of those that they are in. Notre Dame is in. They are almost forced to join as they don't want to be left out of the last chance to join a conference and risking falling off the face of the map as an independent, as they are dancing precariously on that line to begin with. The bottom line here is the Big Ten would never put themselves in a position like this unless they know for certain, and multiple sources as I write this right now are reporting ND has agreed to make that move. (See, by the time I'm done with this article you may be already looking at a picture of Brian Kelly getting a welcome hug from Rich Rodriguez...ewwww!)
- Notre Dame (for some unknown reason) wants Missouri to join them. Does Mizzou's AD have nakey picures of Swarbrick, I don't know, but ND will get what they want. That's 3 schools that brings the Big Ten to, err, 14 now. That leaves 2 spots open which will be offered to Texas with one other spot which means they can't bring along their slow bus friends. Will Texas take that? We don't know yet, but it puts the Big Ten in a position to say, 'whoops, sorry, we'd love to take your friends but we only have 2 seats left....' thus allowing themselves to sidestep that situation and allowing Texas to say to their legislation that they can't do anything about it and can only bring one with them. Will that work?
- Maybe, maybe not. They'd prefer to stay with their regional foes of Tech, A&M, OU, OSU, etc. With two spots left the Big Ten will likely look towards Maryland or Rutgers, or maybe both. There was word that it might be those schools and Syracuse instead of Missouri, but really when you are debating between Mizzou or Syracuse this isn't really ground breaking news so we brush it to the side because the affect on the Big East and ACC is already done.
- The SEC isn't forced to expand like some of the other conferences are but they will attempt to get the schools they want. Who would those schools be? There is nobody on the East Coast terribly enticing to them. UNC is one often rumored but due to UNC's wealthy endowment of nearly $2 billion, money doesn't talk to them like it does to other schools. On top of that, the ACC is a basketball conference and the only one that can say basketball does as well for them revenue wise as football. Texas A&M and Oklahoma are two expansions into the west that would offer the new markets the SEC wants that would help drive their television contracts up, and that's the whole point of this. Look for the SEC to push hard for their services while giving the Pac 10 a tough time.
- If it does turn out to be Maryland, Syracuse, and Rutgers the ACC and Big East will both be left a little bare. The Big East will be more so n that position as their football conference will be nearly gone. But, they have something to offer the ACC. These are the two basketball conferences in the country that demand top dollar, so why not combine forces to make their own 16 team conference with who they have left? That makes an easy fit with the two of them merging and the locations are perfect. Almost makes too much sense to make sense...that's deep.
- The Pac 10 will try to add the six they offered already, but if any of those schools decide to head to the SEC instead look for schools such as Utah to get an offer to join, which is a much bigger market than most would expect.
- The next battle will be between the MWC and WAC to see who can pick up the leftovers. Most think initially it'd be the MWC but the WAC has the bigger markets that could entice those other schools, such as a Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., and Iowa State to join.
- With the departure of two conferences (Big East and Big 12) you open up too more automatic berths into the BCS which they obviously would fully support then as they can pick the schools that will bring them in the biggest returns. Heck, if the MWC adds those aforementioned schools they could get one of those 2 opened BCS slots since they already were close to getting one (or at least being teased with one). The BCS would still be left with an extra slot to give out to their choosing.
The good news is that by this time next week we should all have a much, much clearer understanding of who is going where. Conferences will be forced to act quickly because many schools will be at risk at falling through the cracks and determined to seek shelter. The Big Ten would have loved to have waited another 6 months or so but we can all thank the Pac 10 for forcing their hands and making a real lovely mess of things. The moves in the coming days will forever change college football as we know it and Dan Beebe has nobody to blame but his own conference for the television contract that doomed and ended the Big 12 as we once knew it.
http://tharinger.com/site/Expansion.htm