Predictions for 2nd Half of Conference Play

[Queens_NYC]

We're officially at the halfway point of AAC play. Our 8-1 conference record at the very least has met the expectations of most fans and probably has exceeded the expectations of several others.

However we are looking at a very tough slate of games to come.

Thurs. 2/7 - @Memphis (Q1)
Sun. 2/10 - @Houston (Q1)
Sun. 2/17 - Wichita State (Q3)
Thurs. 2/21 - UCF (Q2)
Sun. 2/24 - @UConn (Q1)
Wed. 2/27 - @SMU (Q2)
Sat. 3/2 - Memphis (Q2)
Thurs. 3/7 - @UCF (Q1)
Sun. 3/10 - Houston (Q1)

Here are everyone's predictions from just over a month ago:
https://www.bearcattalk.com/showthread.php?t=12211

Have your expectations changed? How do you think we will fare over this final stretch of the regular season?

 

[ThomasMac]

I'm guessing we finish 6-3 the remainder of the way with those 3 loses on the road. Which would make us 25-6 going into conference tourney play. Which is going to far exceed my expectations.

 

[sedziobs]

Bart Torvik says 5-4.

 

[indydoug]

Bart Torvik says 5-4.

@SMU will be difficult and so might @UConn given how closely both played at UC. Obviously @Hou & @ UCF and even @ Memphis will all be tough places to pick up a win. Hou & UCF at home won't be easy either. We'll see how good UC is in the next 3 weeks. Only sure wins are likely Memphis and WSU at home as both have been dreadful on the road.

 

[waterhead]

Bart Torvik says 5-4.

That is pretty much where I sit. The easy part is behind us. All but a couple have been within reach by the opponent with about 5-7 minutes remaining. If Cronin can get the guys to follow the scouting report and play better D overall I think we will do better. But we have heard "not following the scouting report" in a few games now and I don't recall hearing that much last year.

We have to be more mentally focused on D to finish better than 5-4. Fewer breakdowns and over helping etc. We have to keep better track of when a shooter has been left open in space. If we do get beat by a driver we should probably take our chances more with the bigs behind them rather than to leave space for a shooter. Let the driver take a contested 2 over an uncontested kick out 3 or a reach in foul.

I think we can hold the other teams to 4-6 less points this way and we are going to need those points in a few of these games. Contest all shots at the rim, just get a hand in the face of 2 point jumpers, and stay closer to the shooters.

 

[sedziobs]

I'm beginning to think we need to stop switching all screens. It's pretty clear at this point that Scott cannot play perimeter defense.

 

[waterhead]

As of now...Per T-Rank we have 4 games left where the predicted score will be outside of 2 point final game score differential. 3 wins at home over WSU (by 11), Memphis (11), UCF (6) and one loss on the road to Houston (by 5).

Let's lock those in. 22-4

The remaining 5 games have a predicted score within a single 2 point bucket. 4 away games and Houston at home.

These are basically toss up games so let's call them 50-50. We should either win 2 or 3 of them based on probability. We are only predicted as dogs in 1 of them (at UCF) but with a target on our back those away games will be tougher than the predicted score might have us believe. I don't think the predicted score takes into consideration which teams are going to have that target based on whether they are trying to win a conference title or have a permanent target just because we are the historic conference powerhouse so to speak.

If we can split those 50-50 away games I think it will be a very good outcome and no small task. A lot could be riding on that final home game against Houston. An outside chance at a conference title. A marquee top 25 win. And almost no doubt will move us a seed line in either direction.

We are in for some more close games and an exciting finish! I hope coach can get these guys fired up and focused like they never have been before.