Predictions for Conference Play

[waterhead]

There was a time I think after the UCLA game that the Bartorvik site had us projected to lose 5 total games. That number is now up to 9.

We have 8 more road games and 8 at home. We have 3 losses now. For the fun of it I am going to chalk us up to lose 1 game at home. That puts us at 4 losses. If we split the road games we are at 8 losses.

I think 8 is reasonable at the moment but it would be nice if we can just take care of business at Tulsa to help take some of the pressure off. If we happen to lose to Tulsa I am not sure we can be very confident in any of the road games.

 

[waterhead]

You bring up a point I’ve been concerned about and I’ve seen in games. I think Jenifer is giving up potentially make some plays in order to not potentially turn the ball over. Going to pay close attention moving forward. I honestly don’t remember a lot of play making from Jenifer this year. Wondering how he is getting the assists.

He has an insane ratio right now. He could fall back from here on out to 4 to 1 and still probably get the record but if he can make more plays for the team it might benefit us a couple of extra scores per game.

After ECU I think defense is probably the biggest focus but we have to look at everything that can help.

 

[cincrulz11]

You bring up a point I’ve been concerned about and I’ve seen in games. I think Jenifer is giving up potentially make some plays in order to not potentially turn the ball over. Going to pay close attention moving forward. I honestly don’t remember a lot of play making from Jenifer this year. Wondering how he is getting the assists.

cumberland shooting 48% from 3 has been a big part of the assists. another has been our official scorer has had an extremely loose interpretation for what an assist is.



there was a great article written a few years ago about assists and how the home scorer can have a wide interpretation for what an assist is. (it was written for the nba but the point is still the same).


https://deadspin.com/nba-court-factors-how-assists-arent-as-unbiased-as-you-1694917271

 

[sedziobs]

We have 8 more road games and 8 at home. We have 3 losses now. For the fun of it I am going to chalk us up to lose 1 game at home. That puts us at 4 losses. If we split the road games we are at 8 losses.

Torvik also has us losing at least one home game. His model shows East Carolina dropping to a Q4 loss. In Q3, he shows us going 4-1 at home against UConn, USF, Tulsa, SMU and Wichita.

He thinks we'll get to four Q1 wins, which means beating Houston and UCF at home, plus taking one of Houston, UCF, Temple or Memphis on the road. That all sounds reasonable. It adds up to a 36th ranked resume and a 7 seed.

 

[GarradJ21]

Torvik also has us losing at least one home game. His model shows East Carolina dropping to a Q4 loss. In Q3, he shows us going 4-1 at home against UConn, USF, Tulsa, SMU and Wichita.

He thinks we'll get to four Q1 wins, which means beating Houston and UCF at home, plus taking one of Houston, UCF, Temple or Memphis on the road. That all sounds reasonable. It adds up to a 36th ranked resume and a 7 seed.

I'll take that. We will survive.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

cumberland shooting 48% from 3 has been a big part of the assists. another has been our official scorer has had an extremely loose interpretation for what an assist is.



there was a great article written a few years ago about assists and how the home scorer can have a wide interpretation for what an assist is. (it was written for the nba but the point is still the same).


https://deadspin.com/nba-court-factors-how-assists-arent-as-unbiased-as-you-1694917271

Yeah, I was going to respond and say a lot of his assists come from Jarron's threes. But, finding an open shooter that's hitting at a high clip is what he should be doing. He has done a better job of getting to the middle of the defense and dishing this year. Last year he never dribbled inside the three point line it seemed and that was my biggest gripe on him because his assists were low and the offense didn't move as a result. And I agree he gets assists on some plays that seem to take a dribble or two before a shot goes up. Theres been a couple plays at home where I notice the assist meter go up on and I'm like, really?. With the hype as a passer he had coming in and watching him when he first stepped on the court here, I really thought we'd have a special passer on our hands with him. Whereas I don't think he doesnt possess that ability, I think he learned early on such aggressive playmaking doesnt suit Mick ball. With all that said, his 6 TO's on the season are impressive no matter how you slice it. Yeah, maybe he doesnt try that questionable alley-oop or drive to make the no look pass as much as fans would like to see (and I whole-heartedly think he can make these plays on the regular on the right team), but I have zero problem with taking care of the ball and making the smart and safe play. For the most part it works and we still have gotten open looks more this year than in any years past. I dont see nowhere near as many forced threes at the buzzer as we have in past years. And when it does happen it's usually when one or more starters are on the bench.

 

[cincrulz11]

Yeah, I was going to respond and say a lot of his assists come from Jarron's threes. But, finding an open shooter that's hitting at a high clip is what he should be doing. He has done a better job of getting to the middle of the defense and dishing this year. Last year he never dribbled inside the three point line it seemed and that was my biggest gripe on him because his assists were low and the offense didn't move as a result. And I agree he gets assists on some plays that seem to take a dribble or two before a shot goes up. Theres been a couple plays at home where I notice the assist meter go up on and I'm like, really?. With the hype as a passer he had coming in and watching him when he first stepped on the court here, I really thought we'd have a special passer on our hands with him. Whereas I don't think he doesnt possess that ability, I think he learned early on such aggressive playmaking doesnt suit Mick ball. With all that said, his 6 TO's on the season are impressive no matter how you slice it. Yeah, maybe he doesnt try that questionable alley-oop or drive to make the no look pass as much as fans would like to see (and I whole-heartedly think he can make these plays on the regular on the right team), but I have zero problem with taking care of the ball and making the smart and safe play. For the most part it works and we still have gotten open looks more this year than in any years past. I dont see nowhere near as many forced threes at the buzzer as we have in past years. And when it does happen it's usually when one or more starters are on the bench.

i think we could see a shift downward in his assist rate but its not going to be a reflection on his play. 90% of jaron's 3's are assisted, i would imagine the vast majority of them come from jenifer. i think its unlikely jaron keeps shooting 48% or w/e he's at (but i sure hope he does).


i also think jenifer's a great passer and i think he is held back from making all the plays he could because of the fear of a turnover. i think when he got here he had the ability to be creative, but for 4 years its been drilled into him that creativity at the risk of turnovers is not what we want.


im sure we could all argue the risk/reward on the turnover front, but thats not on the player.

 

[waterhead]

i think we could see a shift downward in his assist rate but its not going to be a reflection on his play. 90% of jaron's 3's are assisted, i would imagine the vast majority of them come from jenifer. i think its unlikely jaron keeps shooting 48% or w/e he's at (but i sure hope he does).


i also think jenifer's a great passer and i think he is held back from making all the plays he could because of the fear of a turnover. i think when he got here he had the ability to be creative, but for 4 years its been drilled into him that creativity at the risk of turnovers is not what we want.


im sure we could all argue the risk/reward on the turnover front, but thats not on the player.

As good as caupain was at what 3.5 to 1? Top 15 in the country? I think Jenifer has some leeway at 9 to 1. Cronin won’t hate 3.5 to 1...even that is not easy to do when you run the offense. I don’t think he has to fear the turnovers anymore. It’s time to play some basketball! I wanna see just a little bit of old school Jenifer with the no look pass!!

 

[Helicopter]

As good as caupain was at what 3.5 to 1? Top 15 in the country? I think Jenifer has some leeway at 9 to 1. Cronin won’t hate 3.5 to 1...even that is not easy to do when you run the offense. I don’t think he has to fear the turnovers anymore. It’s time to play some basketball! I wanna see just a little bit of old school Jenifer with the no look pass!!

Jenifer had a wrap around no look pass for an assisted dunk literally last game. I'd like to see more drive and dish to the corners.

 

[david aka the TYZ]

i think we could see a shift downward in his assist rate but its not going to be a reflection on his play. 90% of jaron's 3's are assisted, i would imagine the vast majority of them come from jenifer. i think its unlikely jaron keeps shooting 48% or w/e he's at (but i sure hope he does).


i also think jenifer's a great passer and i think he is held back from making all the plays he could because of the fear of a turnover. i think when he got here he had the ability to be creative, but for 4 years its been drilled into him that creativity at the risk of turnovers is not what we want.


im sure we could all argue the risk/reward on the turnover front, but thats not on the player.

I agree. I'll say, too, regarding Logan, I feel his game will be steered the same way Jenifer's has. If you can remember when Jenifer was a freshman he rarely even dribbled the ball up the court. He got the ball and passed it up the court to try and create instant offense. And I think that is part of what confuses fans when they hear Mick say we need to be quicker on offense. Quicker for Cronin doesnt mean run and gun or looking for instant offense. It just means running the ball up the court and getting into sets quicker. Obviously fast break situations are different. But Cronin firmly believes in doing things his way and ultimately there's nothing really wrong with that. But it's on him to recruit to that system. His recruitment has gotten better but I still think he tends to bring in guys that don't fit to his style. Shaq Thomas is first and foremost on this list to me. Cane probably as well, but honestly I think Cane was intentionally brought in to be a change of pace type of player and not brought here to be a focal point. I even questioned in the past why he recruited a player with Jenifer's skill set and size disadvantage to play pg in his system. With that said, I'm impressed by the way Jenifer has transformed his game to this system. When Jenifer came in, he tried to play quick and shot threes early in the shot clock for no reason. He's small but he's very strong and he has owned Cronin's defense. So he has worked out well despite how most fans see things wanting highlight offense and steals. Logan is a similar player in some aspects but different as well. I think Logan will be just as good leading the defense down the road and his length will make him better one-on-one defensively. Offensively he's a savvy passer but I think he's a better scorer and again his length will help on offense as well. The question for Logan is how well and how quickly he adapts to Cronin's system, offense and defense, and how well will he protect the ball. At this point I have zero concerns with him on making these adjustments but time will tell.