Seth Greenberg/National Title Contenders

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We're back on this? Predicting your team will lose when they're almost 10 point dogs doesn't mean you aren't behind the team.

When I say people need to get behind the team I don't mean people need to become UC fan or people need to cheer for the cats. I know we all do that. People need to buy in to the fact we are one of the best teams in the country and we have consistently proven it. Who cares if we were 10 point underdogs? Did you honestly believe Louisville was a better team than us? Do you still? That type of apathy does no good. I understand being realistic, but what I'm saying is that this team's reality right now is that we are a top 10 team with arguably the best defense in the country. We are National Title Contenders and I'm not afraid to say it
 
Sorry if this is a topic that is being rehashed but it is one I feel strongly about. I'm excited about the Louisville game that day and talking to people about our top 15 ranking, etc. Everyone I talk to says something like "Yeah but I mean we haven't really beat anyone, we're really overrated". I'm watching the game with a bunch of friends and everyone's attitude is "Wow Louisville is playing so sloppy right now, UC is getting really lucky". This is the same apathy I encounter when I ask people why they aren't getting tickets to the games. Where is the excitement? Where is all the trash talking I was doing to my UofL friends all week prior to the game? Is it that people are too jaded by the constant disappointment of Cincinnati sports that they don't want to get too excited? I understand supporting your team doesn't mean expecting them to win every game. I will actually be pleasantly surprised if we win the next 2 (SMU will be really tough). But COME ON. This team has enough doubters already, I'm getting sick of seeing them in our own fanbase

And I'm not calling anyone on here out. Most people on this board have been fans longer than me and know more about the sport than me. But who better to spread the excitement and the word that this team is legit than the biggest fans?

LETS GO BEARCATS
 
Good post Guyn. And to answer your question, I thought Louisville was slightly better than UC, and thought we'd lose because it was at YUM. I no longer think they are better than us.
 
I don't really know any UC fans that have called us "overrated". Nobody has predicted anything worse than a 4-seed in the tourney lately, while we're currently looking at a 2-3 seed. That's pretty consistent from our fanbase. As for others, I just tend to not really get too worked up on what they think. I think we're currently getting a decent amount of press. Dickie V has said on many occasions lately that Cronin should be a COY finalist and SK is a serious PTPer. You want people to see UC as a final four team? Then let's see UC reach the final four. That's how you shut the haters up. Its pretty simple. If this team keeps doing what it's doing, it will continue to see less and less doubters. You will NEVER see zero doubters. If you have a Twitter, you'll see there are tons and tons of fans so stoked about this team.
 
So I'm not a real fan if I think Louisville would be a small favorite vs UC in a hypothetical best of 7 series?

We're still in the range of 17-23 in most of the good computer ratings out there like kpom, sagarin, and LRMC Bayesian.

This pretty much fits with how I feel we are as a team too. The way human polls work is pretty dumb and I think the computers and the Vegas market are both better indicators of true team quality than some writers in a poll who probably have barely watched UC play more than a computer has watched them play.
 
So I'm not a real fan if I think Louisville would be a small favorite vs UC in a hypothetical best of 7 series?

We're still in the range of 17-23 in most of the good computer ratings out there like kpom, sagarin, and LRMC Bayesian.

This pretty much fits with how I feel we are as a team too. The way human polls work is pretty dumb and I think the computers and the Vegas market are both better indicators of true team quality than some writers in a poll who probably have barely watched UC play more than a computer has watched them play.

Yeah you're not a real fan, that's exactly what I said
 
So I'm not a real fan if I think Louisville would be a small favorite vs UC in a hypothetical best of 7 series?

We're still in the range of 17-23 in most of the good computer ratings out there like kpom, sagarin, and LRMC Bayesian.

This pretty much fits with how I feel we are as a team too. The way human polls work is pretty dumb and I think the computers and the Vegas market are both better indicators of true team quality than some writers in a poll who probably have barely watched UC play more than a computer has watched them play.

With the human polls it is about when you win more than who you beat. I agree that Cincinnati is probably somewhere around 15-20 in the country. Our three dopplegangers are Ohio State, San Diego State and Virginia (I'd throw St. Louis in but they play at a faster tempo). The difference in the computer numbers is our lack of quality opponents in conference. While we do get 8 top 50 games, we also get 10 sub 200 RPI games. We were trending up offensively until that South Florida game (dropped UC 30+ spots in KenPom after being as high as 90 after UofL).
 
So I'm not a real fan if I think Louisville would be a small favorite vs UC in a hypothetical best of 7 series?

We're still in the range of 17-23 in most of the good computer ratings out there like kpom, sagarin, and LRMC Bayesian.

This pretty much fits with how I feel we are as a team too. The way human polls work is pretty dumb and I think the computers and the Vegas market are both better indicators of true team quality than some writers in a poll who probably have barely watched UC play more than a computer has watched them play.

I still think Louisville is a really good team. The 37 points they put up on us in roughly 10 minutes of play in the second half shows that. I would say we came in with a better gameplan and were very focused early on. Pitino said they weren't ready for our defense which to me says he got outcoached. I think we play better as a team, which is why we haven't looked dominant in hardly any win, but keep finding ways to win. Our defense is better overall. They're good when they can press (and don't get the whistle when they press), we're better in the halfcourt which helped throw their offense out of whack in the first half and allowed us to build a lead and kept them from using their press effectively. Louisville is still a team that can make a big run in my opinion (and I'm assuming yours). If they figure out the intangibles and put it all together they could easily make a big run. It just amazes me looking at their schedule that their best wins are Southern Miss and SMU.

To me UC deserves every bit of the #7 ranking they have but I, too, don't know if we are legitimately one of the best ten teams. We're late enough in the year where you can't ignore 21-2 with a handful of good wins mixed in especially with some good teams sitting out there with 5 losses. I think our team chemistry, everybody knowing and accepting their roles, good coaching and tough, tough defense means we can overacheive based on how we might look on paper. This team has some serious issues scoring the ball. While we seem light years ahead of last year I think it still is a liability come March. Most teams that make tournament runs don't do so with offensive flaws. Good teams will find a way to score against us, the big question for us is can we find the ways to score against them. We are a JJ in foul trouble game away from being one-dimensional on offense. I still think the reason we lost to X was JJ picked up a foul 13 seconds into the game, plus they shot lights out. We haven't gotten to the line some games like we were earlier in the year. We need to attack more on offense. Our defense is good enough that we can play with anybody. JJ and Kilpatrick are two go-to guys that can score. What we lack is a guy that can take over the game on offense. Someone that can score at will. Kilpatrick's 18 points a game are impressive but to me he doesn't fit that mold. For this team to be at the next level we need a guy that can score at will from about anywhere on the floor. Hopefully going forward one of Caupain, Mormon, Johnson or another newcomer can be that guy. I think our success come March will be obviously favorble match-ups but also if we can get to the line. Hopefully Kilpatrick becomes one of those faces of the tourney that will get his calls. I remember when UConn won it a few years back Kemba Walker turned into Kobe Bryant when it came to getting whistles. We need that to happen and to stay out of foul trouble and the sky is the limit for this team. That plus that third scorer that BearcatJeff keeps talking about. Between Shaq, Sanders, Guyn, Caupain, and even Johnson and Rubles we have guys that can step up on any given night.
 
I still think Louisville is a really good team. The 37 points they put up on us in roughly 10 minutes of play in the second half shows that. I would say we came in with a better gameplan and were very focused early on. Pitino said they weren't ready for our defense which to me says he got outcoached. I think we play better as a team, which is why we haven't looked dominant in hardly any win, but keep finding ways to win. Our defense is better overall. They're good when they can press (and don't get the whistle when they press), we're better in the halfcourt which helped throw their offense out of whack in the first half and allowed us to build a lead and kept them from using their press effectively. Louisville is still a team that can make a big run in my opinion (and I'm assuming yours). If they figure out the intangibles and put it all together they could easily make a big run. It just amazes me looking at their schedule that their best wins are Southern Miss and SMU.

To me UC deserves every bit of the #7 ranking they have but I, too, don't know if we are legitimately one of the best ten teams. We're late enough in the year where you can't ignore 21-2 with a handful of good wins mixed in especially with some good teams sitting out there with 5 losses. I think our team chemistry, everybody knowing and accepting their roles, good coaching and tough, tough defense means we can overacheive based on how we might look on paper. This team has some serious issues scoring the ball. While we seem light years ahead of last year I think it still is a liability come March. Most teams that make tournament runs don't do so with offensive flaws. Good teams will find a way to score against us, the big question for us is can we find the ways to score against them. We are a JJ in foul trouble game away from being one-dimensional on offense. I still think the reason we lost to X was JJ picked up a foul 13 seconds into the game, plus they shot lights out. We haven't gotten to the line some games like we were earlier in the year. We need to attack more on offense. Our defense is good enough that we can play with anybody. JJ and Kilpatrick are two go-to guys that can score. What we lack is a guy that can take over the game on offense. Someone that can score at will. Kilpatrick's 18 points a game are impressive but to me he doesn't fit that mold. For this team to be at the next level we need a guy that can score at will from about anywhere on the floor. Hopefully going forward one of Caupain, Mormon, Johnson or another newcomer can be that guy. I think our success come March will be obviously favorble match-ups but also if we can get to the line. Hopefully Kilpatrick becomes one of those faces of the tourney that will get his calls. I remember when UConn won it a few years back Kemba Walker turned into Kobe Bryant when it came to getting whistles. We need that to happen and to stay out of foul trouble and the sky is the limit for this team. That plus that third scorer that BearcatJeff keeps talking about. Between Shaq, Sanders, Guyn, Caupain, and even Johnson and Rubles we have guys that can step up on any given night.

I know what you're saying, but I have to point out that we beat Temple without JJ or Lawrence and surviving an incredible second half performance by Pepper
 
So I'm not a real fan if I think Louisville would be a small favorite vs UC in a hypothetical best of 7 series?

We're still in the range of 17-23 in most of the good computer ratings out there like kpom, sagarin, and LRMC Bayesian.

This pretty much fits with how I feel we are as a team too. The way human polls work is pretty dumb and I think the computers and the Vegas market are both better indicators of true team quality than some writers in a poll who probably have barely watched UC play more than a computer has watched them play.

I pointed this out in the thread about Lawrence returning, but I think its worth repeating. We were making steady progress in KenPom (I don't know how to track the others) after the Xavier loss, where we fell all the way to 58th in his rankings. After that game, here is what we were ranked following our next game: 49, 38, 37, 35, 32, 21. That is when Lawrence got hurt.

Since then our climb has basically stagnated. 17 has been our best ranking, 23 our worst. It could be a case of us just being about the 20th best team in the country. Our it could be because we haven't been playing as well with Lawrence because of the added toll his absence takes on Titus and JJ.

Hopefully getting him back will help us take the next step once he gets in rhythm.
 
I pointed this out in the thread about Lawrence returning, but I think its worth repeating. We were making steady progress in KenPom (I don't know how to track the others) after the Xavier loss, where we fell all the way to 58th in his rankings. After that game, here is what we were ranked following our next game: 49, 38, 37, 35, 32, 21. That is when Lawrence got hurt.

Since then our climb has basically stagnated. 17 has been our best ranking, 23 our worst. It could be a case of us just being about the 20th best team in the country. Our it could be because we haven't been playing as well with Lawrence because of the added toll his absence takes on Titus and JJ.

Hopefully getting him back will help us take the next step once he gets in rhythm.

Good info and interesting thought. I admit I don't know the intricacies of KenPom's rankings but I do think there is some correlation to Lawrence being hurt. He was really starting to turn the corner offensively in that Memphis game and his defense and rebounding have been pretty good all year. I think this team only reaches it's potential this year with a healthy Lawrence.
 
I know what you're saying, but I have to point out that we beat Temple without JJ or Lawrence and surviving an incredible second half performance by Pepper

We did, but we gave up 50 points to them in the second half of that game. I think that was more a testament to the offense got comfortable and went uptempo and the defense suffered and got sloppy, especially without JJ. Same thing happened vs. Houston and Louisville, when we built a big lead we got out of our offensive rythm and sped the game up for some reason. We needed 80 to win that Temple game and this team is not geared to score 80 and definitely not if your only low post threat is on the bench. No use hashing over past games I guess. This team has shown and proven it can win and they know the formula. It's kind of a given that JJ needs to be on the floor and Kilpatrick needs to be doing his thing, etc., etc.
 
Good info and interesting thought. I admit I don't know the intricacies of KenPom's rankings but I do think there is some correlation to Lawrence being hurt. He was really starting to turn the corner offensively in that Memphis game and his defense and rebounding have been pretty good all year. I think this team only reaches it's potential this year with a healthy Lawrence.

Another point about when Lawrence got hurt was we stopped pressing as much, which probably changed our defensive effeciency. His injury not only hurt the depth at that position it really hurt the depth of the whole team, plus it forced us to use Dave and having to play zone when he is in.
 
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