JasonS
Football Moderator
My colleague Mike Bianchi wrote a column for today’s paper calling UCF one of the biggest winners in the first round of conference expansion.
With the Big 12 avoiding complete implosion, it seems more likely the Big Ten will have to look to the Big East and ACC if it wants to move forward with expansion plans. There has been significant chatter that the near death of the Big 12 has spooked the Big East into more openly considering preemptive expansion. The Big East has always had a significant hurdle since it expanded to its current lineup, with 16 basketball schools feeling they are already as big as they can get and eight football schools desperate to expand by at least one team to solve scheduling issues. If the Big Ten expands again, it could potentially take one or more Big East teams. Notre Dame would likely walk away from the unstable lineup and the Big East as we know it could implode, losing its automatic Bowl Championship Series game bid. That’s a big problem for the basketball schools that also play football, such as Louisville.
Did the Big 12’s near demise finally convince the Big East basketball schools it would be worth moving to 18 teams in basketball and 10 in football? For more a week, there have been rumors circulating out of Memphis that the Tigers and one other team, possibly UCF, have a conditional invitation to the Big East. Similar rumors reversing the order of priority, with UCF the first team expected to join the conference, have been circulating in Orlando. No one has been any able to confirm these reports.
When I spoke to Big East Commissioner John Marinatto last month, he said would not discuss expansion rumors but he said he is committed to helping the league “improve what we are.” The Daily Anthenaeum, West Virginia’s student newspaper, offered confirmation that the Big East continues to discuss conference realignment. The newspaper spoke with West Virginia President James P. Clements and newly hired Athletic Director Oliver Luck about conference expansion. The article included this interesting note:
Luck believes expansion and realignment will affect the Big East Conference at some point.
He said the Big East is holding a conference call with athletic directors and presidents of affiliated schools later this week. Pastilong said it will include conference expansion and realignment, but Clements called it “not a big deal” and said it was “just a call.”
“The agenda has not been issued to us yet,” Pastilong said. “But any conference calls that take place at this time will talk about realignment.”
Right. Just a phone call.
Bianchi makes the case today that the time is now for the Big East to make the most of that phone call and add the Knights to its lineup, grabbing insurance against future raids. He wrote:
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, the Big East is out of its mind if it doesn’t invite UCF soon. As we’ve seen in recent days, football is driving the bus when it comes to conference expansion and escalating TV money.
That being the case, why wouldn’t the Big East want to add a school that is in the center of football-fanatical Florida? And what if the Big East were to start its own TV network like the Big Ten? Wouldn’t it want to have the third-biggest university in the nation, located in the 19th-ranked TV market in the country, smack-dab in the middle of the fourth-largest state in the union?
If the Big East does make a move, it would most likely happen this month. In most cases, teams that could potentially join the conference have to give notice to their current leagues by June 30 to be eligible to play in the Big East at the start of the 2012 season.
While I’m writing about conference expansion, I also want to take this opportunity to answer a few reader questions that seem to be popping up over and over again.
Why do I keep calling UCF the strongest expansion candidate east of the Mississippi?
This has stirred up passionate arguments for a slew of other eastern teams, including East Carolina and Memphis.
Simply put, my statements are based on interviews with Big East sources and others with close ties to the Big East. Conference expansion invitations have nothing to do with wins and losses. If you haven’t figured out by now, the size of the media market, ability to sell merchandise and ability to sell home and road-game tickets to fans are driving expansion. Yes, East Carolina is a great program with a lot of tradition, nice facilities, strong results on the football field and rabid fans. But it also happens to be locked in a small town and a small media market. It had all the same advantages during the last round of expansion, but it was passed up for a less successful USF team because the Bulls represented a bigger media market and more potential for future growth. Bianchi rattled off all of UCF’s key statistics in his column — big media market, big enrollment, big fan base and big potential to make really big money.
Outsiders take UCF’s potential seriously. The Knights’ last adidas contract stated the agreement would be renegotiated if the Knights joined a BCS conference. It was an expected move and big reason UCF got a much better shoe and apparel contract than other non-BCS programs.
Does UCF’s enrollment really matter?
Some think this is a meaningless argument, but it certainly is a selling point for UCF. Why? The massively growing alumni base will follow UCF on TV providing more eyeballs for advertisers, buy UCF gear and travel to conference events. TV networks and others are interested in tapping into that big market.
How can UCF be a top candidate if the Big East commissioner John Marinatto told the Sentinel last month “there’s no one we can bring in that brings us that value”?
Here’s Marinatto’s full quote:
“It’s funny, we’ve been in existence as a football conference since 1990 and we’ve always had eight schools. We’ve never had nine. Nine would give us the balanced schedule. So it’s not a new issue, but we just keep coming back the issue that there’s no one we can bring in that brings us that value. I don’t want to say a school because I get in trouble every time I say a name. But if there was a school like that that fit from all the other standpoints, then we would certainly make the move and create a 17-team conference, a nine-team conference in football. So that dynamic would certainly help us.”
I think this quote has been misinterpreted by a lot of readers. For the Big East, convincing Notre Dame to join as a football member is a grand slam. It doesn’t offend the basketball programs and adds millions to future television contract negotiations. The basketball schools also would be more willing to jump to 17 for a big-time school such as Penn State that also would bring in millions. Those are the type of schools Marinatto was talking about last month. It becomes much trickier when you’re adding schools based on potential and future earnings rather than an immediate mega paycheck. Before the near Big 12 implosion, the basketball schools remained unconvinced they needed to green light any future expansion just to avoid being decimated during the next raid. They were only willing to approve a handful of truly big fish that would be a no-brainer for the league. Those big fish also happen to be out of reach, as Marinatto noted. The equation seems to have changed. The Big East may be more interested in adding a team to protect itself against future losses. In that case, UCF adds a whole lot of value.
Will USF block UCF from joining the Big East?
USF isn’t lobbying on UCF’s behalf, but the Bulls have backed away from actively campaigning against the Knights. South Florida officials have made it clear they will support whatever is best for the league. More important, UCF has friends at other programs in the Big East. As UCF continues to gain more and more support elsewhere in the conference, USF doesn’t appear likely to fight and stand in the Knights’ way. This, of course, could change if the Big East moves closer to taking an expansion vote.
Will UCF move into the Big East?
I have pointed out many, many reasons why it could happen, but that doesn’t mean it will happen. This is a very fluid situation and the Big East must have all schools — including basketball programs that have traditionally been against expansion — on board to make any moves. I have been told UCF has been the top candidate in expansion talks, but it can always change during final negotiations. As I previously reported, USF rose from conference expansion road kill to a Big East member during the last round of expansion.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sp...east-invite-ucf-other-schools-this-month.html
With the Big 12 avoiding complete implosion, it seems more likely the Big Ten will have to look to the Big East and ACC if it wants to move forward with expansion plans. There has been significant chatter that the near death of the Big 12 has spooked the Big East into more openly considering preemptive expansion. The Big East has always had a significant hurdle since it expanded to its current lineup, with 16 basketball schools feeling they are already as big as they can get and eight football schools desperate to expand by at least one team to solve scheduling issues. If the Big Ten expands again, it could potentially take one or more Big East teams. Notre Dame would likely walk away from the unstable lineup and the Big East as we know it could implode, losing its automatic Bowl Championship Series game bid. That’s a big problem for the basketball schools that also play football, such as Louisville.
Did the Big 12’s near demise finally convince the Big East basketball schools it would be worth moving to 18 teams in basketball and 10 in football? For more a week, there have been rumors circulating out of Memphis that the Tigers and one other team, possibly UCF, have a conditional invitation to the Big East. Similar rumors reversing the order of priority, with UCF the first team expected to join the conference, have been circulating in Orlando. No one has been any able to confirm these reports.
When I spoke to Big East Commissioner John Marinatto last month, he said would not discuss expansion rumors but he said he is committed to helping the league “improve what we are.” The Daily Anthenaeum, West Virginia’s student newspaper, offered confirmation that the Big East continues to discuss conference realignment. The newspaper spoke with West Virginia President James P. Clements and newly hired Athletic Director Oliver Luck about conference expansion. The article included this interesting note:
Luck believes expansion and realignment will affect the Big East Conference at some point.
He said the Big East is holding a conference call with athletic directors and presidents of affiliated schools later this week. Pastilong said it will include conference expansion and realignment, but Clements called it “not a big deal” and said it was “just a call.”
“The agenda has not been issued to us yet,” Pastilong said. “But any conference calls that take place at this time will talk about realignment.”
Right. Just a phone call.
Bianchi makes the case today that the time is now for the Big East to make the most of that phone call and add the Knights to its lineup, grabbing insurance against future raids. He wrote:
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, the Big East is out of its mind if it doesn’t invite UCF soon. As we’ve seen in recent days, football is driving the bus when it comes to conference expansion and escalating TV money.
That being the case, why wouldn’t the Big East want to add a school that is in the center of football-fanatical Florida? And what if the Big East were to start its own TV network like the Big Ten? Wouldn’t it want to have the third-biggest university in the nation, located in the 19th-ranked TV market in the country, smack-dab in the middle of the fourth-largest state in the union?
If the Big East does make a move, it would most likely happen this month. In most cases, teams that could potentially join the conference have to give notice to their current leagues by June 30 to be eligible to play in the Big East at the start of the 2012 season.
While I’m writing about conference expansion, I also want to take this opportunity to answer a few reader questions that seem to be popping up over and over again.
Why do I keep calling UCF the strongest expansion candidate east of the Mississippi?
This has stirred up passionate arguments for a slew of other eastern teams, including East Carolina and Memphis.
Simply put, my statements are based on interviews with Big East sources and others with close ties to the Big East. Conference expansion invitations have nothing to do with wins and losses. If you haven’t figured out by now, the size of the media market, ability to sell merchandise and ability to sell home and road-game tickets to fans are driving expansion. Yes, East Carolina is a great program with a lot of tradition, nice facilities, strong results on the football field and rabid fans. But it also happens to be locked in a small town and a small media market. It had all the same advantages during the last round of expansion, but it was passed up for a less successful USF team because the Bulls represented a bigger media market and more potential for future growth. Bianchi rattled off all of UCF’s key statistics in his column — big media market, big enrollment, big fan base and big potential to make really big money.
Outsiders take UCF’s potential seriously. The Knights’ last adidas contract stated the agreement would be renegotiated if the Knights joined a BCS conference. It was an expected move and big reason UCF got a much better shoe and apparel contract than other non-BCS programs.
Does UCF’s enrollment really matter?
Some think this is a meaningless argument, but it certainly is a selling point for UCF. Why? The massively growing alumni base will follow UCF on TV providing more eyeballs for advertisers, buy UCF gear and travel to conference events. TV networks and others are interested in tapping into that big market.
How can UCF be a top candidate if the Big East commissioner John Marinatto told the Sentinel last month “there’s no one we can bring in that brings us that value”?
Here’s Marinatto’s full quote:
“It’s funny, we’ve been in existence as a football conference since 1990 and we’ve always had eight schools. We’ve never had nine. Nine would give us the balanced schedule. So it’s not a new issue, but we just keep coming back the issue that there’s no one we can bring in that brings us that value. I don’t want to say a school because I get in trouble every time I say a name. But if there was a school like that that fit from all the other standpoints, then we would certainly make the move and create a 17-team conference, a nine-team conference in football. So that dynamic would certainly help us.”
I think this quote has been misinterpreted by a lot of readers. For the Big East, convincing Notre Dame to join as a football member is a grand slam. It doesn’t offend the basketball programs and adds millions to future television contract negotiations. The basketball schools also would be more willing to jump to 17 for a big-time school such as Penn State that also would bring in millions. Those are the type of schools Marinatto was talking about last month. It becomes much trickier when you’re adding schools based on potential and future earnings rather than an immediate mega paycheck. Before the near Big 12 implosion, the basketball schools remained unconvinced they needed to green light any future expansion just to avoid being decimated during the next raid. They were only willing to approve a handful of truly big fish that would be a no-brainer for the league. Those big fish also happen to be out of reach, as Marinatto noted. The equation seems to have changed. The Big East may be more interested in adding a team to protect itself against future losses. In that case, UCF adds a whole lot of value.
Will USF block UCF from joining the Big East?
USF isn’t lobbying on UCF’s behalf, but the Bulls have backed away from actively campaigning against the Knights. South Florida officials have made it clear they will support whatever is best for the league. More important, UCF has friends at other programs in the Big East. As UCF continues to gain more and more support elsewhere in the conference, USF doesn’t appear likely to fight and stand in the Knights’ way. This, of course, could change if the Big East moves closer to taking an expansion vote.
Will UCF move into the Big East?
I have pointed out many, many reasons why it could happen, but that doesn’t mean it will happen. This is a very fluid situation and the Big East must have all schools — including basketball programs that have traditionally been against expansion — on board to make any moves. I have been told UCF has been the top candidate in expansion talks, but it can always change during final negotiations. As I previously reported, USF rose from conference expansion road kill to a Big East member during the last round of expansion.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sp...east-invite-ucf-other-schools-this-month.html