Trending the wrong way?

[Bearcat_NTS]

Easy to get assists just passing the ball around the perimeter when the guy hits a three pointer. Seriously, all assists are not created equal. Ask a neutra observer if our offense resembles Notre Dame's. LOL.

 

[justinhub2003]

Wow. Well done with the spin. Those 5 games in 2013-14 were against MUCH BETTER competition. The fact that we can't even break 1 PPP against Tulsa and UCF (and barely against USF) is extremely concerning. The shooting has fallen off a cliff...evidence by all the games being below 35% from 3PT. We aren't playing well offensively at all, we are 3rd in our own conference. I think Jacob said it, but Mick loves for every game down the stretch of a season to be a grind-it-out win. That style will not work in the NCAA's. I guarantee that. We are looking at another early exit if we don't start shooting better and running offense. Watching UC completely give up on running sets late in the SMU game was all too familiar for me.

I felt quite confident after the Xavier game. That's what a high major college game should look like. I don't know if the team is wearing down or is in a funk but I am not optimistic any longer...

You win. I quit with you man.

You convinced me. That 1 loss after winning 15 straight has me ready to throw in the towel too.


I used to really like your analysis back before you become the most jaded UC fan. But man, Mick and UNLV really did a number on you. We are 23-2 and yet you seemed more optimistic last year when we were 19-8 at this time.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Dude in most of Mick's teams, we couldn't score 90 if the other team let us.

Its funny; Mick wanted to mirror his offense after Notre Dame's and ND's is always top 10 in Assist to TO ratio every year. 1 year after trying the new approach we are 3rd in Assist to TO ratio and ND is second.

I'd call that making a plan and executing it. You can also call it good coaching

Someone posted an article the other day about our offense this year and it had to go back to years like 99-00 and 01-02 to find UC teams that averaged and scored the way this team has. We can't stop now. Gotta stay committed to finishing strong for the SRs. Caupain is going to have to be a big part of that. Not just hitting shots, but setting the tone. His individual struggles cannot impact the rest of the rhythm we need.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Easy to get assists just passing the ball around the perimeter when the guy hits a three pointer. Seriously, all assists are not created equal. Ask a neutra observer if our offense resembles Notre Dame's. LOL.

But I thought we couldn't shoot? So why are the assist numbers lightyears better than the 13-14 team you referenced that also couldn't shoot?

 

[justinhub2003]

Easy to get assists just passing the ball around the perimeter when the guy hits a three pointer. Seriously, all assists are not created equal. Ask a neutra observer if our offense resembles Notre Dame's. LOL.

I never said we looked exactly like ND. We adapted some of their philosophy and all the sudden we are 3rd in the country in Assist to TO Ratio. We are also 13th in assists per game.

We have better post players than ND so we still do play more inside out and it works for us.

And I was making the point that this team has very little in common with the 2013-14 team. We are balanced. We are more efficient. We shoot better. We Share the ball and we protect the ball better. Its not even really debatable. The numbers don't lie.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

But I thought we couldn't shoot? So why are the assist numbers lightyears better than the 13-14 team you referenced that also couldn't shoot?

I said the shooting has fallen of a cliff. We've shot a ton more three pointers this season at a slightly better rate. In 2013-14 we made 196/585 3PT (33.5%) and 167 were assisted (85.2%). This season we are already at 192/546 (35.2%) and 176 were assisted (92.7%).

The biggest difference? SK only was assisted on 76.2% of his attempts (he had the most attempts on the team) while this year Kevin Johnson has had been assisted on 100% of his threes (he is second by 6 attempts on the team).

The assist numbers are up, sure. How much is due to us just being a marginally better shooting team where our main attempt guy is a catch and shoot guy?

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I said the shooting has fallen of a cliff. We've shot a ton more three pointers this season at a slightly better rate. In 2013-14 we made 196/585 3PT (33.5%) and 167 were assisted (85.2%). This season we are already at 192/546 (35.2%) and 176 were assisted (92.7%).

The biggest difference? SK only was assisted on 76.2% of his attempts (he had the most attempts on the team) while this year Kevin Johnson has had been assisted on 100% of his threes (he is second by 6 attempts on the team).

The assist numbers are up, sure. How much is due to us just being a marginally better shooting team where our main attempt guy is a catch and shoot guy?

I haven't dug that deeply into the numbers but I'd be willing to bet that having 5 guys who can shoot the 3 all on the floor together has helped.

Holy crap just looked it up and saw that SK led the team with 2.5 assists per game that year. That is unbelievable. We have 4 guys this year ahead of Caupain who was #2 that year. And Caupain and Evans are ahead of where SK was at.

Even if you want to attribute it 100% to shooting more 3s, we're hitting them at a better rate and shooting more of them, so that makes the offense better by itself.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I haven't dug that deeply into the numbers but I'd be willing to bet that having 5 guys who can shoot the 3 all on the floor together has helped.

Holy crap just looked it up and saw that SK led the team with 2.5 assists per game that year. That is unbelievable. We have 4 guys this year ahead of Caupain who was #2 that year. And Caupain and Evans are ahead of where SK was at.

Even if you want to attribute it 100% to shooting more 3s, we're hitting them at a better rate and shooting more of them, so that makes the offense better by itself.

So if the offense truly has fallen off a cliff, my question is why? Is it bc we're in a team slump? Or bc we're doing something completely different? Are a higher % of our shots 3s compared to earlier in the year? Are possessions down? Is our time per possession up?

 

[2bearcatdad]

This thread was 100% predictable.

When being "right" about the direction of a program or the quality of it's leadership is more important than actually analyzing the team or being a fan of that program- this is what you get.

Some were excited about getting this element back on the board.

Ok - enjoy.

 

[Bearcat513]

This thread was 100% predictable.

When being "right" about the direction of a program or the quality of it's leadership is more important than actually analyzing the team or being a fan of that program- this is what you get.

Some were excited about getting this element back on the board.

Ok - enjoy.

I don't see anything wrong with what this thread has been. If you do then just skip out of it.

I agree somewhat with NTS. The play of the team recently has not been as good as it was. I don't think NTS is upset with being 23-3 but he's upset we have been performing poorly on the offensive end in the last 4 of 5 games. We crawl the ball up the court and pass around the perimeter. UC has probably average 3 shot clock violations in the last 3 games. That's terrible.

The free flow offense Mick talked about seems to have gone away. That's not a good sign and I hope tomorrow against Tulsa it makes it's return and we blow them out.

But, it has to return to road games too. Playing away from home after March 5th will be a challenge if we continue to struggle to get 60 points away from 5/3 Arena.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

I don't see anything wrong with what this thread has been. If you do then just skip out of it.

I agree somewhat with NTS. The play of the team recently has not been as good as it was. I don't think NTS is upset with being 23-3 but he's upset we have been performing poorly on the offensive end in the last 4 of 5 games. We crawl the ball up the court and pass around the perimeter. UC has probably average 3 shot clock violations in the last 3 games. That's terrible.

The free flow offense Mick talked about seems to have gone away. That's not a good sign and I hope tomorrow against Tulsa it makes it's return and we blow them out.

But, it has to return to road games too. Playing away from home after March 5th will be a challenge if we continue to struggle to get 60 points away from 5/3 Arena.

Do you think playing teams for a second time and the fact they are gearing to stop us defensively may have something to do with our numbers declining a bit. Look at how USF played us. Soft press the a 3-2 zone. They milked the shot clock almost every trip down the floor. The issue with NTS statements are he is blaming Mick for winning games. You do realize the other teams game plan to stop us.

 

[waterhead]

I said the shooting has fallen of a cliff. We've shot a ton more three pointers this season at a slightly better rate. In 2013-14 we made 196/585 3PT (33.5%) and 167 were assisted (85.2%). This season we are already at 192/546 (35.2%) and 176 were assisted (92.7%).

The biggest difference? SK only was assisted on 76.2% of his attempts (he had the most attempts on the team) while this year Kevin Johnson has had been assisted on 100% of his threes (he is second by 6 attempts on the team).

The assist numbers are up, sure. How much is due to us just being a marginally better shooting team where our main attempt guy is a catch and shoot guy?

We have an inside out game this year. We are getting a LOT of double teams down low with Gary and Kyle creating the open man on the perimeter. I would expect to get more assists than when we gave the ball to SK and let him do his thing (which he was very good at).

Have we fallen off a cliff? Somewhat. There was a point when we had Jarron, KJ, and Troy shooting about 50% for a 6 or so game stretch from 3. That was fun! Before that point Evans was well over 40%. All of those guys have cooled which is understandable. KJ has been shooting better lately (3 games) but he and Troy have been 32-33% guys over their careers.

If we are going to be shooting better as a team it's going to come from new guys like Kyle, Jacob, and Jarron etc. Maybe Moore next year and Williams who knows. We should expect a marginal improvement from the establishment year over year though...so it's time for Troy to get it going a little bit.

I like the idea of giving Cumberland more of Scott's minutes to give our offense a boost. Cumberland seems to be a good deflection guy even if he's not a great on ball defender. Hopefully this gives us the small boost we need for March.

 

[juckerrules]

I haven't dug that deeply into the numbers but I'd be willing to bet that having 5 guys who can shoot the 3 all on the floor together has helped.

Holy crap just looked it up and saw that SK led the team with 2.5 assists per game that year. That is unbelievable. We have 4 guys this year ahead of Caupain who was #2 that year. And Caupain and Evans are ahead of where SK was at.

Even if you want to attribute it 100% to shooting more 3s, we're hitting them at a better rate and shooting more of them, so that makes the offense better by itself.

Look at assists....and turnovers! In 34 games, 2013-14 team - 425-377 (1.127 a/to ratio)
Today's team so far is way better. In 24 games 409-240 (1.636 a/to ratio)

That team had 425 assists and 377 turnovers

Anything you can measure, this year's team is light years ahead of the 2013-14 team offensively...shooting %, (13-14 .425/.335 vs. now .472/.352)
except ft's - they were better .708-.658
rebounding margin is a wash...slightly better this year
This team gives up 3.6 steals/game.....2013-14 gave up 5.2 steals/game

I think (and I know it's a ridiculous attempt to extrapolate), this team, playing the 2013-14 schedule, would have won at least 3 more games (Louisville 2 pt. loss, UConn 2 pt loss , Harvard NCAA game) and who knows after Harvard....Harvard played Mich State tough, lost by only 7, you never know...next up would have been Virginia, and then a rematch against UConn

 

[justinhub2003]

If your slumps still net you wins, id call that a good team.

We had so many losses this time last year and yet this year we refuse to lose despite how we shoot.

 

[waterhead]

We have an inside out game this year. We are getting a LOT of double teams down low with Gary and Kyle creating the open man on the perimeter. I would expect to get more assists than when we gave the ball to SK and let him do his thing (which he was very good at).

Have we fallen off a cliff? Somewhat. There was a point when we had Jarron, KJ, and Troy shooting about 50% for a 6 or so game stretch from 3. That was fun! Before that point Evans was well over 40%. All of those guys have cooled which is understandable. KJ has been shooting better lately (3 games) but he and Troy have been 32-33% guys over their careers.

If we are going to be shooting better as a team it's going to come from new guys like Kyle, Jacob, and Jarron etc. Maybe Moore next year and Williams who knows. We should expect a marginal improvement from the establishment year over year though...so it's time for Troy to get it going a little bit.

I like the idea of giving Cumberland more of Scott's minutes to give our offense a boost. Cumberland seems to be a good deflection guy even if he's not a great on ball guy. Hopefully this gives us the small boost we need for March.

We haven't been penetrating lately which is predictable given we like playing the 2 post man inside out game and the defense will pack it in against that look. Giving Cumberland more of Scott's minutes (playing 4 guards) should allow more minutes of the game for guards to drive. Cumberland is best when his shot fake can be used to blow past his man and make a bull rush to the bucket. Setting him on the perimeter for spot shooting is not using all of his assets. KJ is a set shooter. Troy has driving ability (not a shot creator). Jacob can benefit from 4 out 1 in just like Cumberland.

I am interested to see what this new look will give us and if Cronin will actually use it...not just lip service. Our strength is inside out...but we need to mix it up to give the defense more to game plan against.

 

[waterhead]

If your slumps still net you wins, id call that a good team.

We had so many losses this time last year and yet this year we refuse to lose despite how we shoot.

Winning games against inferior talent can happen by playing great D. I am happy we are taking care of our business! We will need more offense in March to go along with that D. We have seen enough data and history in tourneys to know we need to score the ball better when we get there.

 

[waterhead]

We had little choice in SK's senior year but to give him the ball and hope he could do it all. Jackson was not bad on the interior but he was our second option. Titus Rubles was our 3rd highest scorer and that man could not put the ball in the ocean from the beach. He averaged like 7 points as our 3rd scorer.

We have 6 guys averaging 7 points or more this year...but we don't have an All American go to guy. I will take this year's team over any Cronin team...but we still have to be trending towards better rather than worse as we approach the end of the season.

I happen to think a lot of this is cyclical and we will start trending better at some point. Hopefully it is timed out just right for a great late run!

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

If your slumps still net you wins, id call that a good team.

We had so many losses this time last year and yet this year we refuse to lose despite how we shoot.

Exactly!!!!

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Winning games against inferior talent can happen by playing great D. I am happy we are taking care of our business! We will need more offense in March to go along with that D. We have seen enough data and history in tourneys to know we need to score the ball better when we get there.

Mick shortening his bench is certainly a sign he is looking to create more scoring a the season winds down. That said it is all very fluid as to performance and how the game is going. Look at this season to this point. 22-3. Player development has been addressed by giving minutes to underclassmen, we have remained healthy, Coach has actual game experience to understand strengths and weaknesses of players and how to best utilize them. Teams have adjusted to us the second time around the league. Mick is now making his adjustments. Teams understand we want to get the ball to Kyle and Gary.

 

[waterhead]

Mick shortening his bench is certainly a sign he is looking to create more scoring a the season winds down. That said it is all very fluid as to performance and how the game is going. Look at this season to this point. 22-3. Player development has been addressed by giving minutes to underclassmen, we have remained healthy, Coach has actual game experience to understand strengths and weaknesses of players and how to best utilize them. Teams have adjusted to us the second time around the league. Mick is now making his adjustments. Teams understand we want to get the ball to Kyle and Gary.

Yah...I like the idea of Cumberland for Scott. I see very good reason to play Kyle and Gary as many minutes as possible and playing inside out when they are both in. I see very little reason to play with two bigs otherwise. And for God sakes...NEVER use two bigs when both Clark and Kyle are out of the game. That drives me insane! If I see any combination of Moore/Scott, Moore/Brooks, Brooks/Scott...it will be too soon.

If your 6th man is a guard...go small!