UCF

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Queens_NYC

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Jan 8, 2017
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1,655
Saturday, February 4th, 2023
12:00 PM
Fifth Third Arena
ESPNU

The Bearcats (14-8 [6-4 AAC], NET #78, KenPom #60) welcome UCF (13-8 [4-5 AAC], NET #66, KenPom #63) to town for the first of two match-ups between these teams over a 15-day time span.

A strong start to the season had the Knights in an early conversation for a NCAA at-large berth, but the tides have shifted dramatically, and UCF has since lost four consecutive games (@Tulane, @UCF, Houston & Temple) by an average margin of nearly 10 points.

7th-year head coach Johnny Dawkins has flipped the roster upside down after last season's 18-12 campaign as they only have 2 healthy scholarship players who were with the program last season. The Knights are led by one of the best freshman talents in college basketball with 6'9 forward Taylor Hendricks (14 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.8 bpg). Their next leading scorer is 6'5 5th-year wing CJ Kelly (12.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.8 apg) who shoots 41.1% from 3 on just over 5 attempts/game.

The Knights were one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the AAC, but since the January 8th injury to starting center Michael Durr (USF/Indiana transfer), their team offensive rebounding percentage has dropped significantly. The Knights are one of the better free throw shooting teams in the AAC with a 81.2% rate in conference play so far.

The Bearcats have lost 3 of their past 4 match-ups against UCF including last season's 75-61 defeat in Orlando.
 
UCF is a decent team with some major holes, much like us. They are a top 20 offensive rebounding team, but they turn the ball over a lot and are very bad on the defensive glass. They shoot it well from three at 36%, but only 47% from inside the arc (55% at the rim and 33% from midrange). It all adds up to a very average 50% effective field goal percentage. Defensively they give up 80% of looks from three or at the rim, but they allow only 31% from three, same as us. UCF plays a very slow tempo, averaging fewer than 64 possessions per game.

Since Durr's injury, their defense has been considerably worse. They have given up at least 1.2 points per possession in 3 of the last 5 games.

Hendricks is easily their best player. He can shoot it from three (38% on 4 attempts per game) and get to the rim (nearly 5 attempts including more than one dunk per game). He also blocks a lot of shots and can rebound on the offensive glass. Hendricks has a low turnover rate and commits only 2.5 fouls per 40 minutes, both very impressive for a freshman. The other offensive threat is CJ Kelly who shoots 41% from three and gets to the line more than anyone on the team. Kelly shoots a terrible 16% from midrange though, so we should let him shoot that.
 
With healthy Rob and Newman i believe we would've easily been tourny team. MAW weakest link on team.
 
Wow never seen more of a fix from a player. Nolley needs be seriously investigated for gambling.
 
Since I said Nolley gambling. Throw hailmary pass that got lucky wasn't turnover and just literally let his man make layup.
 
Damn i wish I had inside info. These players making a killing. NIL and betting is money them thousands.
 
CJ Kelly said hold my beer Nolley, I got money on this also buddy. Haha Nolley need UCF to cover. I guarantee my life on it.
 

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