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GarradJ21 said:
So basically our resume (so far) is pretty poor even if we beat UCLA, correct?
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I'm not sure I would call it poor.


The OSU & MSU losses really hurt our chances at a top 8 seed.

But we still have plenty of opportunities left, its just none will be easy.

As of today we have 2 Tier 2 wins. With Xavier on the Cusp of being another (we kinda need them to beat Missouri tonight). IF they do that, it turns into a 3rd tier 2 win and we also need UNLV to stay top 135

But yea, say we beat UCLA and end up finishing with 4 Tier 2 wins, it won't be an insanely great resume, but it will be pretty decent. We just failed to capitalize on the 1 huge tier 1 games we had.



that said.. in conference we still have 10 more tier 1 or 2 chances left with 4 of them being tier 1 games.




That even further said, It will be the first time since the 2012 season where we didn't secure a Tier 1 type win in the non conference schedule.

2013: Iowa st and Oregon
2014: Pitt
2015: @NC State
2016: @VCU
2017: @iowa St
2018: @UCLA



Speaking of that though, Mick doesn't get a lot of credit for making his team pretty damn good road warriors. Thats an impressive 4 years streak of stealing wins from good teams in their own gym
 
Queens_NYC said:
I'd say it would be close to on par with last season's OOC resume.

Last season's best OOC wins...

Buffalo (neutral - 2nd Round NCAA team)
UCLA (away - Lost in NCAA Play-in game)
Miss State (home - 22 wins, no postseason)

This season we're looking at...

Ole Miss (neutral - outside looking in at NCAA at-large but still possible)
Xavier (home - same as Ole Miss)
UCLA (home - best shot at NCAA at-large)

According to KenPom our OOC SOS last season was 294th nationally. This year we're at 179th, so that should hopefully work in our favor with all the tournament metrics come March.
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Don't discount that road win Against UNLV, On a team sheet, thats going to be a Tier 2 win most likely.
 
waterhead said:
The NET ranking has us at 29 so not terrible by any means so far. UCLA would be a decent quality win for us. I think it's one of those games we need to win if we want to shoot for something like a 6 seed or so
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I personally feel like we hurt our chances of getting a 6 seed or better, by not picking up tier 1 wins..

That said, if we somehow sweep Houston and UCF, then its very much in play. Just really hard to count on stuff like that.


Houston has played poorly in a few games now and still found ways to win.
 
justinhub2003 said:
I personally feel like we hurt our chances of getting a 6 seed or better, by not picking up tier 1 wins..

That said, if we somehow sweep Houston and UCF, then its very much in play. Just really hard to count on stuff like that.


Houston has played poorly in a few games now and still found ways to win.
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How the heck did we get a two seed then last year.

This is how I look at it:
OOC:
UCLA wins cancel each other out (if we win Wednesday).
Miss St last year and UNLV this year cancel each other. With UNLV being on the road.
We lost to Florida and Xavier last year and lost to OSU and Miss State this year.

In Conference
Last year we beat WSU on the road.

This year lets say we beat Houston on the road we lose a couple maybe to UCF and Temple. I mean does last year really deserve a 2 seed and this year barley get us a 6 seed? To think we will blow through our conference with this team and the level of competition in the American is stupid but I'm just saying, wouldn't something like this get us right back to a 2 seed or so line?

I guess I'm just confused how we got a 2 seed last year and this year we are already writing off the fact that our chances to get an 8 seed or better seems unrealistic.
 
Lets use the example below to predict our seed:

Beat UCLA and SC State finish 11-2 OOC.

Protect Home court and lose to Houston on the road, UCF on the road, and Temple on the road.
15-3

Overall 26-5. What seed? and if this isn't a 6 seed or better that would be nuts.
 
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GarradJ21 said:
How the heck did we get a two seed then last year.
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last year they used rpi and the rpi really made our resume look much better than it was.

Buffalo was 35 on rpi, 67 on kenpom
Temple was 38 on rpi, 86 on kenpom
UCF was 62 on rpi, 111 on kenpom
Wyoming was 75 on rpi, 118 on kenpom
Uconn was 112 on rpi, 179 on kenpom
Memphis was 121 on rpi, 161 on kenpom



all those teams were bumped up 1 quadrant from where they should have been. our resume might have been much weaker if NET were used last year. All the sudden 7 tier one wins could have been 4.
 
cincrulz11 said:
last year they used rpi and the rpi really made our resume look much better than it was.

Buffalo was 35 on rpi, 67 on kenpom
Temple was 38 on rpi, 86 on kenpom
UCF was 62 on rpi, 111 on kenpom
Wyoming was 75 on rpi, 118 on kenpom
Uconn was 112 on rpi, 179 on kenpom
Memphis was 121 on rpi, 161 on kenpom



all those teams were bumped up 1 quadrant from where they should have been. our resume might have been much weaker if NET were used last year. All the sudden 7 tier one wins could have been 4.
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Wow that's interesting. Lets redo it and take the 4 seed so we can erase that horrific 22 point lead meltdown.

I don't look up all the metrics that go into seeding and rankings. I felt like I was really only extremely impressed with our wins last year @UCLA, @WSU, and Houston in the conference championship game. That said, just like Cronin says, don't take winning for granted, so I was impressed as a whole with only losing 4 games all year as well (regular season and conference tourney).

So I guess deep down I did always wonder how we actually got a 2 seed (excluding our record), but I know there's the metric systems involved. I think we will lose more than 4 games this year, but just saying if we didn't, and to hear that a 6 seed or better is almost out of the question seemed surprising to me, but now I get it. Stating that we should have never really been a 2 seed last year makes better sense.
 
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really need this game tonight. OOC schedule is kinda looking worse every day. xavier is a complete dumpster of a team right now, missouri blew them out last night. theres a chance unlv and xavier won't even be quad 2 wins.
 
cincrulz11 said:
really need this game tonight. OOC schedule is kinda looking worse every day. xavier is a complete dumpster of a team right now, missouri blew them out last night. theres a chance unlv and xavier won't even be quad 2 wins.
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If we come out of OOC 11-2 I will be very happy with it. After the first three games I wasn't even sure we were a top 75 team.

My two keys for the win would be make 1 out of 3 three point shots (we will likely have to put up more than usual). Then our bigs need to fight like hell for rebounds.

I expect to see a lot of Nsoseme tonight. Brooks will likely have a few fouls. I hope Scott can stay out of early foul trouble.
 
A win tonight means we should sail to a 13-2 record before we get into the meat of conference schedule. We don't want to see a loss before that time.

11 of the final 16 games could be quad 1 or 2. There are 8 home games of which I hope we don't lose more than 1. That would put us at 20-3. USF could be the only road game outside of Quad 1 and 2. Let's call it 21-3.

That leaves 7 more games on the road quad 1 or 2. UCF and Houston as of now are the toughest road games. Let's say we drop both. That would put us at 21-5 with 5 other games to decide. If we can be on the positive side of those 5 games (say 3-2) we would be at 24-7.

Hopefully that would put us in the 6-7 seed range and not the 8-9 range. I would be extremely happy with a 6-7 seed at this point.
 
waterhead said:
A win tonight means we should sail to a 13-2 record before we get into the meat of conference schedule. We don't want to see a loss before that time.

11 of the final 16 games could be quad 1 or 2. There are 8 home games of which I hope we don't lose more than 1. That would put us at 20-3. USF could be the only road game outside of Quad 1 and 2. Let's call it 21-3.

That leaves 7 more games on the road quad 1 or 2. UCF and Houston as of now are the toughest road games. Let's say we drop both. That would put us at 21-5 with 5 other games to decide. If we can be on the positive side of those 5 games (say 3-2) we would be at 24-7.

Hopefully that would put us in the 6-7 seed range and not the 8-9 range. I would be extremely happy with a 6-7 seed at this point.
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Looks like I messed up the USF game is at home. So to get to 24-7 we would need to split the remaining 8 away games. Houston, UCF, Tulsa, Memphis, Uconn, Temple, WSU, and SMU.
 

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