2-20 Bracketology
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bearcat jeff
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Honestly I don't get some of the reasoning behind the tournament selections. I truly believe there is more to it than just "on paper" stuff. I believe there is a build in bias, much like the top 25 rankings.
Xavier is 9-9 I believe since the brawl. UConn has been terrible and is a team in disarray. The Huskies have a losing Big East record and everyone says they are still in. Indiana is 5-6 in their last 11 and can hardly buy a win on the road. Purdue is 5-7 in their last 12 games.
Everyone wants to talk about OOC schedule but they overlook that in the big 6 conferences you play a brutal schedule night in and night out. My issue with the current format is that 1 bad loss in OOC can kill you and 1 or 2 big wins followed my mediocrity in conference play keeps you on the "in" list. The season can't be boiled down to only your non-conf schedule. It is 31 games long and the fact of the matter is the power conferences have a much tougher time over the long haul than those who don't play in power conferences.
The fact of the matter is that by seasons end UC will have played 8 teams that were ranked at the time they played them. They have a shot at (I think) 6 top 50 wins and if they can find a way to beat Louisville, Marquette, and South Florida, they will have a win over every team currently ahead of them in the BEast standings with the exception of Syracuse.
Xavier is 9-9 I believe since the brawl. UConn has been terrible and is a team in disarray. The Huskies have a losing Big East record and everyone says they are still in. Indiana is 5-6 in their last 11 and can hardly buy a win on the road. Purdue is 5-7 in their last 12 games.
Everyone wants to talk about OOC schedule but they overlook that in the big 6 conferences you play a brutal schedule night in and night out. My issue with the current format is that 1 bad loss in OOC can kill you and 1 or 2 big wins followed my mediocrity in conference play keeps you on the "in" list. The season can't be boiled down to only your non-conf schedule. It is 31 games long and the fact of the matter is the power conferences have a much tougher time over the long haul than those who don't play in power conferences.
The fact of the matter is that by seasons end UC will have played 8 teams that were ranked at the time they played them. They have a shot at (I think) 6 top 50 wins and if they can find a way to beat Louisville, Marquette, and South Florida, they will have a win over every team currently ahead of them in the BEast standings with the exception of Syracuse.
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WAITE HOYT 2
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Jeff, unfortunately it is hard to seperate UCONN from last years performance. 9 and 9 in league,won BE tourney and won NCAA's. They still have great talent and a big name coach. Most analyst still hold out hope they will put it together and make a run. Looking at their roster the personnel is their to do it. I guess what i'm saying is they have a strong rep and it carries alot of weight. UC needs to win its way in especially after the dry years after Huggins left and a terrible out of conference. While UCONN needs to lose its way out.
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But its a double edged sword here...If we root for UConn to 'lose its way out', our win against them continues to weaken and weaken.
The head to head comparisons against X might have something to do with that selection as well.
The Good Wins for our resume: at Gtown, At Uconn(so far), ND, Seton Hall
The Bad losses for our resume: Pres, Marshall, Xavier(Another bubble team), St Johns, Rutgers, and maybe WVU
We have 4 'good' wins and two of those teams (UConn and Seton Hall), could be in freefall. We can't count on either of those teams to be good at the end of the year. Neither are NCAA tourney teams in my eyes.
So We have to at least go 3-1 with a win over UL and/or Marquette. We need at least one more "good" win.
JasonS
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WVU is not a bad loss. Xavier is not a bad loss. Statistically Marshall is also not a bad loss. Since you all want to use RPI as the one and only tool to get an NCAA berth, Marshall is 57 as of today.
As of right now USA today has both Seton Hall and UCONN in the tourney. UCONN can make it at 9-9 because their schedule strength is number 1 in the country. We may have 4 'good' wins as you put it but Xavier only has 2 (@Vandy and St. Joes).
Florida won the 2007 National Title with a non-conference schedule strength listed as number 243 in the nation. They weren't penalized as they were given a number 1 seed. OOC schedule strength is overrated. The committee should and typically does look at the entire body of work. They should also factor in that UC was missing a starter for every game until the Xavier game.
I think 2 more wins puts UC in the tourney probably on the 11 line.
Edit: Florida Stats courtesy of Mike Decourcy on twitter.
WAITE HOYT 2
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Don't disagreee with your assesment but I do believe 2-2 gets us in. That said, if we are 2-2 we would need one win in BE tourney to secure bid. By the way everyone is talking about how many we can lose to still make NCAA's how about this, we win all 4 and finish top 4 in league. That gets us in and a nice seed. Regardless isn't it fun to watch MC rebuild this great program. After Huggins left I was absolutely starved for some relevent games at the shoe. Now evertime you turn on the tube it is a huge game. As success grows so will the OCS. Can't wait until Thursday.
DontMissHim
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Xavier is going to get by on their recent success (I know that shouldn't matter and it might not- Just think that will help a little) but also its nice having the AD on the committee.
UC is 5-5 vs top 100 RPI (UC plays 3 more) Xavier is 6-8 (playing 2 more top 100 teams)IMO, Xavier is an 11 seed over UC because of head to head and The obvious thing- fairly or unfairly, the RPI. While some think RPI doesn't matter, it does and X has always played the RPI game well.
I have said for awhile both UC and X will be in the tournament (If for no other reason then the bubble is weak, like always. Hard enough to get 68 teams-96 would be brutal). But, UC won't get the seed they deserve because of the RPI. All that changes with a win over Louisville or Marquette, obviously.
UC is 5-5 vs top 100 RPI (UC plays 3 more) Xavier is 6-8 (playing 2 more top 100 teams)IMO, Xavier is an 11 seed over UC because of head to head and The obvious thing- fairly or unfairly, the RPI. While some think RPI doesn't matter, it does and X has always played the RPI game well.
I have said for awhile both UC and X will be in the tournament (If for no other reason then the bubble is weak, like always. Hard enough to get 68 teams-96 would be brutal). But, UC won't get the seed they deserve because of the RPI. All that changes with a win over Louisville or Marquette, obviously.
Kingsley Court
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Really, really weak argument IMO. Defending champs, team wins SEC regular season and conference tournament, and was 29-5 going into the NCAA tournament. That's substantially different than a bubble team who had a worse non-con schedule than that Florida team.
It's not about the horrible non-con, the problem is the losses in the non-con. If they had beaten presby and Marshall you would be hearing nothing about the non con schedule.
JasonS
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That's not true. Last year they went undefeated in the non-conference and all you heard about the rest of the year was that they weren't as good as their record because of the non-conference.
Kingsley Court
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True, but it didn't stop them from making the tournament. It's just my opinion that if they won those two games, we would not be discussing the bearcats as being on the bubble.
We might be hearing about a soft non con, and it may cost them a seed in the tournament, but they would still not be on the bubble as of today.
bearcat jeff
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"It's not about the horrible non-con, the problem is the losses in the non-con. If they had beaten presby and Marshall you would be hearing nothing about the non con schedule."
KC, I believe you're right here and it was doubly bad that it was at home. The three losses that have killed UC this season were all home losses (the 2 mentioned above and St. Johns). They are carrying the weight of those losses and will unless they can go 3-1 or win out in the regular season. They hurt themselves with their inability to maintain focus during games, especially when they feel they have the game won. It bit them againt Prebytarian when they had a 15 point lead. It bit them when they were up 7 late against Marshall and it bit them with their overconfidence against St. Johns. Win those games and we are talking about Cincinnati and seeding possibilities right now, not if they'll make the tournament.
KC, I believe you're right here and it was doubly bad that it was at home. The three losses that have killed UC this season were all home losses (the 2 mentioned above and St. Johns). They are carrying the weight of those losses and will unless they can go 3-1 or win out in the regular season. They hurt themselves with their inability to maintain focus during games, especially when they feel they have the game won. It bit them againt Prebytarian when they had a 15 point lead. It bit them when they were up 7 late against Marshall and it bit them with their overconfidence against St. Johns. Win those games and we are talking about Cincinnati and seeding possibilities right now, not if they'll make the tournament.
bearcat jeff
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But that only proves the falliacy of the theory "we only look at a team and their body of work". There is a reason UConn has to lose it's way out and UC has to win it's way in. Even though UC beat UConn at Storrs head to head and has a better conference and overall record. It's the same reason some schools have to lose a 100 games to fall out of the top 25. There is a built in bias nobody wants to talk about.
I don't get this part of your post. Obviously, if that happens we'll be in and have a good seed. It only makes sense for people to talk about what HAS happened and not what might happen. What has happened is bubble fringe results so far. Maybe its just me, but I feel like your post seems upset about a slight that hasn't happened yet under circumstances that haven't happened yet.
Sure there is. The reason is SOS.
JasonS
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Cincinnati's SOS is 124 as of today. Teams ranked above UC in the RPI with worse SOS are:
RPI 31 Harvard (187 SOS)
34 Murray State (207)
37 Middle Tennessee (153)
44 Iona (139)
45 Oral Roberts (171)
58 Nevada (146)
61 South Dakota St (176)
65 Akron (128)
69 Belmont (177)
70 VCU (197)
t-73 Davidson (157)
t-73 Drexel (244)
77 Weber State (287)
78 Wagner (252)
79 Cleveland State (141)
80 Bucknell (166)
t-81 Buffalo (144)
t-81 Cincinnati (124)
If this doesn't show that RPI is flawed, I don't know what would. If you're the NCAA selection committee, do you really think these 17 teams are all better than Cincy?
TheLongHaul
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Yea, but you are talking about the media, they are separate from the selection committee. I don't see anyone on the selection committee being biased right now. Whatever the media thinks doesn't really matter. They could still have UConn in the top 25 right now and it wouldn't matter from a selection committee perspective.
I was replying to why teams like UConn are hanging around despite recent losses. I'm happy to concede that the RPI is nearly worthless, but I don't see the problem that is presenting us.
To answer your question, Yes to Murray St. No to the rest. None of those teams are getting an at large over us. So what's the problem?
I think at this point everyone (except Jerry Palm because he runs collegerpi.com) understands that the RPI is a very poor indication on the quality of a team. 75% of the rating is based on your opponents and their opponents, so really its just a biproduct of a teams SOS. A prime example would be Colorado State. They were in essence rewarded for going to Duke and losing by 30, while Cincinnati is punished by beating Radford by 40 at home. It is time for the whole system to be eliminated and replaced by a compilation of many better rating systems (KenPom, Sagarin, Massey, BPI, etc). With that being said, that isn't the case and the AD should have made the investment to spend what probably would have been about $400,000 to schedule teams that would help the RPI. Take a page out of Huggins or Pitino's book and schedule a lot of teams that will compete for the league titles but probably aren't good enough to beat you.
It seems to me we are all in agreement that if we win 3 more games we are in the dance as a virtual lock. If we only take 1 more game (or less) we are likely out. So our bubble number seems right at 2-2. IMO I think we will still get in at 2-2...but it depends on the importance the committee puts on OOC and RPI. Perhaps a BE tourney win would seal the deal. Let's hope we don't have to find out.
If we look at our potential for that 4th seed double bye in the BE tourney it may be wishful thinking BUT...
If we win out (unlikely I know)...we would just need GT to lose one game or ND two games (and they do play each other). Not sure how the tie breaker would work with MU (but they would have to at least lose one other game besides to us).
But if we go 3-1 (more likely) including wins over USF and UL...we own the tie breaker over all teams above us or tied except SYR and MU. If we go 3-1 we can't be caught from behind. Then all we would need would be two things...for GT to go 2-2 or worse from here. GT has an away game with MU and a home game with ND left. USF would also have to go 2-2 or worse but we would give them one of those losses. USF has 4 tough games left.
Of course there are other less likely scenarios...and we are by no means a lock to win 3 games. Just something to watch for if we get off to a hot start from here
