2019-2020 Open Thread

[skyblade]

My current rough guess at minutes by position.

C: Diarra 20, Vogt 15, Rap 5
PF: Rap 20, Diarra 10, Eason 10.
SF: Williams 30, Harvey 10.
SG: MAW 20, Harvey 10, Gabe 10
PG: Dejulius 25, Saunders 10, MAW 5.

RS: Davenport, Mason.
Prince is a question mark until we learn more. Could take some PF minutes, which would domino effect Eason into minutes at the 3, Harvey minutes at the 2 and fewer minutes for the freshmen guards.

 

[kskenyon4]

My current rough guess at minutes by position.

C: Diarra 20, Vogt 15, Rap 5
PF: Rap 20, Diarra 10, Eason 10.
SF: Williams 30, Harvey 10.
SG: MAW 20, Harvey 10, Gabe 10
PG: Dejulius 25, Saunders 10, MAW 5.

RS: Davenport, Mason.
Prince is a question mark until we learn more. Could take some PF minutes, which would domino effect Eason into minutes at the 3, Harvey minutes at the 2 and fewer minutes for the freshmen guards.

I don't see a world where Diarra doubles Vogts minutes. I think Eason will play more (hopefully cause he's just that good).

 

[cincrulz11]

I don't see a world where Diarra doubles Vogts minutes. I think Eason will play more (hopefully cause he's just that good).

the odds of diarra getting more minutes than both Vogt and Rap gotta be extremely low. even in Vogt's struggles and Diarra playing better the last 5 games, Diarra only got more minutes than him in 1 of those games.



If Vogt's body couldn't take a year at the 5, what is Diarra's gonna end up like.

 

[Queens_NYC]

Here's my take on minutes with DeJulius being eligible.

C: Vogt 22, Dou 10, Rap 8
PF: Dou 12, Rap 12, Eason 16
SF: Keith 32, Gabe 8
SG: MAW 10, DDJ 10, Harvey 16, Gabe 4
PG: DDJ 15, Maw 15, Saunders 10

Total Minutes
Keith 32
DDJ 25
MAW 25
Vogt 22
Dou 22
Rap 20
Eason 16
Harvey 16
Gabe 12
Saunders 10

Davenport/Mason: Redshirt or garbage time minutes

 

[cincyguy13]

I don't see a world where Diarra doubles Vogts minutes. I think Eason will play more (hopefully cause he's just that good).

Skyblade would play diarra every game, even if he was playing terrible. Surprised he didn’t put his minutes at 40. I hope diarra is good enough to play more.

 

[skyblade]

Yah...one specialty of DD was scoring in transition. We are going to be pushing pace for sure. Mikey is also a speedster. Everyone can run but Vogt and it should be no problem because if we miss the opportunity to score early Vogt can lag behind and we can then try to set up offense and feed the post. We don't need 5 guys on the break

I still say Vogt's minutes are going to drop to 15, or perhaps even 10 mpg. You don't need 5 guys on the break, but you do need 5 guys who can get back and defend quickly and defend in a broken down defense situation. Ideally you also want 5 guys who can run on the break. You also want a center who can grab the rebound as a trailer or hit the three as a trailer if he is slow getting on the break.

Vogt is a traditional big man and too much of a statue to fit a running pressing team. Especially as Rap and Diarra both fit the system and should be fairly interchangeable. Against teams that want to run with us, I could see Vogt's minutes dropping below 10. Against slow paced teams, he might get closer to 20 or even 25 minutes.

 

[kskenyon4]

Here's my take on minutes with DeJulius being eligible.

C: Vogt 22, Dou 10, Rap 8
PF: Dou 12, Rap 12, Eason 16
SF: Keith 32, Gabe 8
SG: MAW 10, DDJ 10, Harvey 16, Gabe 4
PG: DDJ 15, Maw 15, Saunders 10

Total Minutes
Keith 32
DDJ 25
MAW 25
Vogt 22
Dou 22
Rap 20
Eason 16
Harvey 16
Gabe 12
Saunders 10

Davenport/Mason: Redshirt or garbage time minutes

It's nitpicky, but I wouldn't mind Harvey playing 20 minutes a game. Maybe so Keith plays 30, someone else a minute or two. When he finally got healthy, he was playing double digit minutes most games down the stretch. We went 4-1 when he played 12 or more minutes down the stretch. He also is a highly touted recruit, and you know minutes are important.

 

[skyblade]

I don't see a world where Diarra doubles Vogts minutes. I think Eason will play more (hopefully cause he's just that good).

I considered putting Diarra at 5 minutes at PF and Eason 15. But I don't believe in giving a freshman that many minutes until he has proven himself. Even great freshmen can take a year to adjust college and for big men it is even harder. So it came down to Rap vs Diarra for those final 5 minutes and I believe in Diarra more (and I am too lazy to break minutes predictions into chunks smaller than 5). Rap may have trouble adjusting to the higher level of play and I have doubts about his defense and rebounding at the 4 as well.

Also as I've already stated, I don't believe Vogt and Rap can play together. So that limits Rap to either playing PF with Diarra at C or playing center. I could see Rap playing exclusively center (25 mins) and Diarra playing only PF (25-30 mins depending on Eason and Prince).

Prince is an X factor and could take some of those PF minutes. Williams, Harvey or Davenport may also end up playing PF in small ball.

 

[Chance2017]

Here's my take on minutes with DeJulius being eligible.

C: Vogt 22, Dou 10, Rap 8
PF: Dou 12, Rap 12, Eason 16
SF: Keith 32, Gabe 8
SG: MAW 10, DDJ 10, Harvey 16, Gabe 4
PG: DDJ 15, Maw 15, Saunders 10

Total Minutes
Keith 32
DDJ 25
MAW 25
Vogt 22
Dou 22
Rap 20
Eason 16
Harvey 16
Gabe 12
Saunders 10

Davenport/Mason: Redshirt or garbage time minutes

I think Harvey will be in the 20+ range. JMO

 

[waterhead]

Here's my take on minutes with DeJulius being eligible.

C: Vogt 22, Dou 10, Rap 8
PF: Dou 12, Rap 12, Eason 16
SF: Keith 32, Gabe 8
SG: MAW 10, DDJ 10, Harvey 16, Gabe 4
PG: DDJ 15, Maw 15, Saunders 10

Total Minutes
Keith 32
DDJ 25
MAW 25
Vogt 22
Dou 22
Rap 20
Eason 16
Harvey 16
Gabe 12
Saunders 10

Davenport/Mason: Redshirt or garbage time minutes

Pretty good breakdown. This should be Keith's year to shine but he is also one of the guys who gets winded a lot. I would probably lower his to the 27-28 range. I think I put him at 30 but that could be too high on my part. DD could also end up in that same range. I think Brannen will take control this year and not let anyone take plays off. He doesn't have to cater to a potential All American or anything like that. We have quality depth now so taking plays off will likely result in taking a break on the bench this year.

Other than that it looks pretty solid. I don't know if MAW will be getting 25 with all the talented guards we have

 

[waterhead]

I still say Vogt's minutes are going to drop to 15, or perhaps even 10 mpg. You don't need 5 guys on the break, but you do need 5 guys who can get back and defend quickly and defend in a broken down defense situation. Ideally you also want 5 guys who can run on the break. You also want a center who can grab the rebound as a trailer or hit the three as a trailer if he is slow getting on the break.

Vogt is a traditional big man and too much of a statue to fit a running pressing team. Especially as Rap and Diarra both fit the system and should be fairly interchangeable. Against teams that want to run with us, I could see Vogt's minutes dropping below 10. Against slow paced teams, he might get closer to 20 or even 25 minutes.

I think Brannen likes Vogt too much to drop his minutes that far but I could see it happening if Diara becomes a consistent player. That's a pretty big IF though

 

[skyblade]

Does anyone know about spring/summer practices and if they will happen with Covid 19? It's another factor to consider and would favor returning guys who know the system getting minutes over incoming players. Our first practice last year was mid April, I doubt that's happening this year.

It's generally hard for freshmen and new transfer to adjust anyway. A lack of practices would make it even harder.

 

[waterhead]

I don't see a world where Diarra doubles Vogts minutes. I think Eason will play more (hopefully cause he's just that good).

I would like to think Eason and Gabe (and Mikey) will be ready to produce at high levels year one but the additions of Rap and DD tells me that CJB is not counting on or relying on the frosh putting in high minutes. He would have still needed to bring in a big either way but he wouldn't need to grab a transfer guard if he thought the frosh (and sophs) were going to be killing it. MAW was solid last year but not spectacular and Harvey was overwhelmed or still not 100%.

 

[skyblade]

I would like to think Eason and Gabe (and Mikey) will be ready to produce at high levels year one but the additions of Rap and DD tells me that CJB is not counting on or relying on the frosh putting in high minutes. He would have still needed to bring in a big either way but he wouldn't need to grab a transfer guard if he thought the frosh (and sophs) were going to be killing it. MAW was solid last year but not spectacular and Harvey was overwhelmed or still not 100%.

I tend to distrust that incoming players and freshmen will contribute immediately. It's an adjustment period of learning a new system, learning to play with new teammates and often dealing with an increased level of play. A freshman who contributes in a major way is rare enough that we usually remember the ones who do.

Rap may struggle as well. In the last 2 years he has played a total of 9 top 100 quality games and in those games has averaged an offensive rating below 85. He has also averaged a TO rate above 20% in those games. In top 100 games in the last two years he has shot 33-71 from 2 and 5-29 from 3. That's not even getting into his rebound rate, defense and likely defensive struggles if he plays at the 4.

DeJulius is the player who I think is most likely to transition quickly. His game seems suited for the style Brannen wants to run and he is going to be dropping in competition level coming from Michigan.

After DeJulius I expect the most improvement from guys who were on the roster last year and seem to have lots of potential. Williams, Harvey and Diarra. I also have hope for MAW and who knows, maybe even Vogt will surprise me (though I still say his game just doesn't fit the style Brannen claims to want to run).

I'm not expecting a lot this year though. I consider it more of a developmental year and am expecting a high seeded NIT team. I will be pleasantly surprised if we make the NCAA tournament and disappointed if we are a low NIT seed (or miss the NIT entirely).

I am hoping the RAP can get a waiver and play in 21-22. If he can, we should be in very good shape with Diarra/RAP as seniors and a lot of Sophomores and Juniors.

 

[waterhead]

I tend to distrust that incoming players and freshmen will contribute immediately. It's an adjustment period of learning a new system, learning to play with new teammates and often dealing with an increased level of play. A freshman who contributes in a major way is rare enough that we usually remember the ones who do.

Rap may struggle as well. In the last 2 years he has played a total of 9 top 100 quality games and in those games has averaged an offensive rating below 85. He has also averaged a TO rate above 20% in those games. In top 100 games in the last two years he has shot 33-71 from 2 and 5-29 from 3. That's not even getting into his rebound rate, defense and likely defensive struggles if he plays at the 4.

DeJulius is the player who I think is most likely to transition quickly. His game seems suited for the style Brannen wants to run and he is going to be dropping in competition level coming from Michigan.

After DeJulius I expect the most improvement from guys who were on the roster last year and seem to have lots of potential. Williams, Harvey and Diarra. I also have hope for MAW and who knows, maybe even Vogt will surprise me (though I still say his game just doesn't fit the style Brannen claims to want to run).

I'm not expecting a lot this year though. I consider it more of a developmental year and am expecting a high seeded NIT team. I will be pleasantly surprised if we make the NCAA tournament and disappointed if we are a low NIT seed (or miss the NIT entirely).

I am hoping the RAP can get a waiver and play in 21-22. If he can, we should be in very good shape with Diarra/RAP as seniors and a lot of Sophomores and Juniors.

I agree about new comers early on and whichever frosh can pick it up like MAW did...even if it's just one of them...it will help a lot.

Rap isn't going to be in a starring role so I don't worry too much about him being overwhelmed. The star of the show is going to be the system hopefully.

 

[waterhead]

I think Harvey will be in the 20+ range. JMO

Harvey needs to get a little swag. He looked very timid last year. He is very skilled and needs the confidence boost. If he gets frustrated early in the season he could be a transfer candidate end of year. Hopefully he will be operating at 100% and is jacked up to have a big season. Also needs to be working his ass off in practice and off season because there are others that will.

Eason and Madsen are coming in with chips on their shoulders and have that killer instinct. MAW already grabbed the minutes that Harvey could have had. Dejulius is going to scoot MAW over to the 2. So he has to improve more than MAW and hope Madsen is slow to pick things up.

If he gets 20 minutes he will probably be MIP because there is a lot of competition at the guard spots. Brannen will not put him in to facilitate offense or just play D like he was doing last year (which was fine). He's going to have to score and be a threat and aggressive this year.

 

[skyblade]

Harvey needs to get a little swag. He looked very timid last year. He is very skilled and needs the confidence boost. If he gets frustrated early in the season he could be a transfer candidate end of year. Hopefully he will be operating at 100% and is jacked up to have a big season. Also needs to be working his ass off in practice and off season because there are others that will.

Eason and Madsen are coming in with chips on their shoulders and have that killer instinct. MAW already grabbed the minutes that Harvey could have had. Dejulius is going to scoot MAW over to the 2. So he has to improve more than MAW and hope Madsen is slow to pick things up.

If he gets 20 minutes he will probably be MIP because there is a lot of competition at the guard spots. Brannen will not put him in to facilitate offense or just play D like he was doing last year (which was fine). He's going to have to score and be a threat and aggressive this year.

Harvey missed a lot of time due to injury before coming here. I think he will be a key player next year, he can get the time in to practice and get in shape.

Most of what I've seen about Gabe makes me think he won't be ready next year (could even be a redshirt candidate). Not strong enough, doesn't like to play defense and isn't very good at it, shies away from contact. There was even a podcast with the Madsen's posted not too long ago where Gabe said his biggest weakness is defense. He can learn and put on weight, but I don't think he will have a major impact as a freshman.

Mason on the other hand may actually have more of an immediate impact, even though his upside seems more limited. He was reported to be the best defender on his HS team and guarded the other teams best player. Tough and can shoot threes. A three-and-D type guy.

Eason seems like the most likely freshman to have an immediate impact. But as I've said before, it's tough for freshmen bigs to adjust. I can't see him being more than a 10 mpg guy.

I do think we will see at least one or two of these guys transfer next year. We have a logjam at guard all within a class of each other (especially if DeJulius doesn't get a waiver).

MAW I think will be okay as an SG. I think it's his more natural position anyway and he has a good stroke from three. I imagine him and Harvey will get the bulk of the minutes.

 

[cincyguy13]

Harvey missed a lot of time due to injury before coming here. I think he will be a key player next year, he can get the time in to practice and get in shape.

Most of what I've seen about Gabe makes me think he won't be ready next year (could even be a redshirt candidate). Not strong enough, doesn't like to play defense and isn't very good at it, shies away from contact. There was even a podcast with the Madsen's posted not too long ago where Gabe said his biggest weakness is defense. He can learn and put on weight, but I don't think he will have a major impact as a freshman.

Mason on the other hand may actually have more of an immediate impact, even though his upside seems more limited. He was reported to be the best defender on his HS team and guarded the other teams best player. Tough and can shoot threes. A three-and-D type guy.

Eason seems like the most likely freshman to have an immediate impact. But as I've said before, it's tough for freshmen bigs to adjust. I can't see him being more than a 10 mpg guy.

I do think we will see at least one or two of these guys transfer next year. We have a logjam at guard all within a class of each other (especially if DeJulius doesn't get a waiver).

MAW I think will be okay as an SG. I think it's his more natural position anyway and he has a good stroke from three. I imagine him and Harvey will get the bulk of the minutes.

You assessment of Gabe is interesting. Haven’t seen those things said anywhere. He looks ready to me. Not all league but I think he will be fine. He ain’t redshirting. Players don’t have to all be elite defenders. Seems like that’s how you judge all of the players. Basically if they can play defense, they are good. If not they are bad. I’m all for defense but can’t just defend teams to death. Someone has to score. I don’t think brannen wants to play many rock fights

 

[skyblade]

You assessment of Gabe is interesting. Haven’t seen those things said anywhere. He looks ready to me. Not all league but I think he will be fine. He ain’t redshirting. Players don’t have to all be elite defenders. Seems like that’s how you judge all of the players. Basically if they can play defense, they are good. If not they are bad. I’m all for defense but can’t just defend teams to death. Someone has to score. I don’t think brannen wants to play many rock fights

The fact is that young guys get playing time by defending and rebounding. Sure offense helps too, but if you are being beat and blowing assignments on defense, you aren't staying in the game. Pretty much every coach does that. Look at UC last year, McNeal got a lot of minutes for his defense and Diarra got quite a bit once he learned the system.

For a bench player it's generally easier to get minutes because of defense and rebounding. A bench guy generally isn't going to be a go to guy on offense, so they have to make their impact in other parts of the game.

I judge players by their entire game. Because that's how basketball works. Great scorers who can't defend or rebound aren't good players. They don't have to be an elite defender, but they have to be solid at defense. It seems some fans would rather lose 80 to 100 than win 50 to 40. The great teams, the teams that win in the NCAA tournament, are top 25 in both offense and defense. I want to see better offense, but I want to see great defense as well.

Here is an assessment of Gabe from a UC fan who coached against him (taken from the Csnbbs forum).

"Madsen can shoot the damn ball lol.He needs strength though.I think he added a good bit hid sr season.But in summer play he has trouble playing against contact.Hes not a big fan of defense.The potential too be a very good wing defender is there.Hes actually a very athletic kid.I think he's a legit 6'6 so very good length.Like I said he's a exceptional shooter 40-45% 3 ball.His handle needs a bit of work but again he's got a lot of skill.Honestly he was most talented player in his aau program.I think he got a bit bored and didn't get the ball enough."

The recent interview Gabe cited defense as his biggest weakness.

If you haven't seen concerns about Gabe's defense you aren't looking hard. He has the size and athleticism to be a very good defender, but it's probably going to take him a while to get there.

 

[waterhead]

The fact is that young guys get playing time by defending and rebounding. Sure offense helps too, but if you are being beat and blowing assignments on defense, you aren't staying in the game. Pretty much every coach does that. Look at UC last year, McNeal got a lot of minutes for his defense and Diarra got quite a bit once he learned the system.

For a bench player it's generally easier to get minutes because of defense and rebounding. A bench guy generally isn't going to be a go to guy on offense, so they have to make their impact in other parts of the game.

I judge players by their entire game. Because that's how basketball works. Great scorers who can't defend or rebound aren't good players. They don't have to be an elite defender, but they have to be solid at defense. It seems some fans would rather lose 80 to 100 than win 50 to 40. The great teams, the teams that win in the NCAA tournament, are top 25 in both offense and defense. I want to see better offense, but I want to see great defense as well.

Here is an assessment of Gabe from a UC fan who coached against him (taken from the Csnbbs forum).



The recent interview Gabe cited defense as his biggest weakness.

If you haven't seen concerns about Gabe's defense you aren't looking hard. He has the size and athleticism to be a very good defender, but it's probably going to take him a while to get there.

Brannen recruited these guys. If he didn’t think he could get them to play good enough D he wouldn’t have offered. Effort won’t be a problem. There are also some techniques that can be addressed fairly easily.. Gabe will be fine