2020 Bracketology

[kskenyon4]

CBS - 7 Seed preseason.

Notable teams:
Vermont - 13
OSU - 5
X - 8
Houston - 9
Memphis - 4
Tennessee - 6
Colgate - 13

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

[kskenyon4]

ESPN:

Cincy - 9 seed

Notables:
Memphis - 5
Colgate - 14
OSU - 3
Xavier - 6
Tennessee - 9
Vermont - 12
Houston - 8

 

[sedziobs]

We're in the bracketmatrix field for the first time since November as an 11 seed. We're included in 62 of 92 brackets. Virginia and VCU are the last teams in, and Memphis is the first team out. Here's how those resumes look right now (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Cincinnati (1-5, 6-0, 3)
Virginia (2-3, 3-2, 2)
VCU (1-4, 2-2, 0)
Memphis (1-2, 5-2, 2)

We're not the only team struggling to get Q1 wins. We might even have two when the NET rankings come out Monday morning. We're also not the only team with multiple bad losses.

 

[Quadri's #1 fan]

We're in the bracketmatrix field for the first time since November as an 11 seed. We're included in 62 of 92 brackets. Virginia and VCU are the last teams in, and Memphis is the first team out. Here's how those resumes look right now (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Cincinnati (1-5, 6-0, 3)
Virginia (2-3, 3-2, 2)
VCU (1-4, 2-2, 0)
Memphis (1-2, 5-2, 2)

We're not the only team struggling to get Q1 wins. We might even have two when the NET rankings come out Monday morning. We're also not the only team with multiple bad losses.

Please refrain from positivity. We don't need that.

 

[mdchick]

We absolutely need to go 6-1 in our last 7 games to have any chance as an at large

 

[cincrulz11]

We're in the bracketmatrix field for the first time since November as an 11 seed. We're included in 62 of 92 brackets. Virginia and VCU are the last teams in, and Memphis is the first team out. Here's how those resumes look right now (Q1,Q2,bad losses):

Cincinnati (1-5, 6-0, 3)
Virginia (2-3, 3-2, 2)
VCU (1-4, 2-2, 0)
Memphis (1-2, 5-2, 2)

We're not the only team struggling to get Q1 wins. We might even have two when the NET rankings come out Monday morning. We're also not the only team with multiple bad losses.

i saw we are in 32 of 39 that were updated yesterday

 

[waterhead]

We absolutely need to go 6-1 in our last 7 games to have any chance as an at large

I ran T-rank again going 5-2 the rest of the way. Winning our 5 most likely and losing our 2 most likely by their probability (Houston and USF away).

The result was a 10 seed. It's definitely not fool proof but we should at least be on the bubble even with 2 more losses. I think 1 loss and we are in. 2 losses and maybe we need to win a couple in the tourney.

We didn't lose too much steam at Uconn but we have to keep playing like we need to win every game. 10 seed sounds good to me...I would rather be there than the 8 or 9 anyway

 

[waterhead]

i saw we are in 32 of 39 that were updated yesterday

That's a good sign! We gained some cred recently

 

[sedziobs]

The fact that we are currently right on the bubble means we just have to match the other bubble teams to stay there. Going 6-1 the rest of the way is clearly going to put us above them. 5-2 probably keeps us in the same position, and our chances will depend on how the other bubble teams perform. 4-3 and we are going to need a ton of help, but there's still faint hope for an at-large.

 

[sedziobs]

We're the first team out in the latest bracketmatrix, included in 48 of 96 brackets. Arizona St squeaked by us with 50. I think that's accurate. The Sun Devils match our 7 quality wins (3 in Q1) and have no bad losses.

There's quite a bit of separation below us though. Miss St and Minnesota have considerably worse resumes than ours.

 

[sedziobs]

There are some really terrible brackets on bracketmatrix. I sent them this email:

In my opinion, automated systems that produce extreme outliers should be removed from the matrix. There are a handful of these with 5-year average scores below -30, including KPI, TeamRankings, RealTimeRPI, and Numberfire. It's likely that some sites set up algorithms years ago that have suffered from a lack of maintenance or are not representative of current selection methodologies. I believe they should be purged. RealTimeRPI is a particularly bad offender right now. They have San Diego St as a 6 seed (no others have them lower than 3) and Cincinnati as a 5 seed.

 

[cincrulz11]

They have San Diego St as a 6 seed (no others have them lower than 3) and Cincinnati as a 5 seed.

sounds fine to me

 

[justinhub2003]

I wonder how many teams in the last 5 years have made the tourney as an at large with 3 Tier 3 losses?


I can't imagine its a ton.

I think those losses could hurt us if we are near the cutoff line.


Also... It sucks, but right now, it seems like Houston or UC needs to win the Conference tourney. IF UConn or a team outside of the field wins it, it could be our spot they are taking.

 

[justinhub2003]

I wonder how many teams in the last 5 years have made the tourney as an at large with 3 Tier 3 losses?


I can't imagine its a ton.

I think those losses could hurt us if we are near the cutoff line.


Also... It sucks, but right now, it seems like Houston or UC needs to win the Conference tourney. IF UConn or a team outside of the field wins it, it could be our spot they are taking.

In 2016: 0 teams with 3 tier 3 losses in the tourney
in 2017: 0 Teams with 3 tier 3 losses
in 2018: 0 teams with 3 tier 3 losses
in 2019: 1 team with 4 tier 3 losses (Arizona State)



I only spent 5 minutes looking at each year so I may have missed one but what I have found so far is that just 1 team in 4 years has made the tourney with 3 or more tier 3 losses.


Lets look at the rest of Arizona State's Resume:
3-4 in Q1
9-3 in Q2
5-2 in Q3
6-2 in Q4


So at least in the last 4 years, AZ St has the worst losses to make the tourney. BUT they combatted those 4 dreadful losses with 12 Q1 and Q2 wins


Today UC is:
2-5 in Q1
5-0 in Q2
5-3 in Q3
3-0 in Q4

Our resume is fragile and thin:

UConn is a tier 2 win, but if they fall one more spot, they are a Q3 win
SMU is a tier 2 win, but they are just 2 spots from falling out

On the other side:
Vermont and Tulsa could move in to tier 2 territory if they keep winning


If we win out:

3-5-Q1
8-0-Q2
8-3-Q3
3-0-Q4


It would put us very close to matching Arizona States Q1 and Q2 win total.

But if we don't pick up the Houston win. I truly think we are left out unless we get a win against Houston in the conference tourney.


Making the tourney with 3 tier 3 losses isn't unprecedented but its very rare.

 

[sedziobs]

I wonder how many teams in the last 5 years have made the tourney as an at large with 3 Tier 3 losses?

2019: Baylor, VCU, Arizona St
2018: Nevada, Arizona St, Providence, St Bonaventure, NC St
2017: Butler, West Virginia, Dayton, Providence
2016: Miami, Kentucky, Indiana, Providence, Syracuse, Tulsa, Vanderbilt
2015: Michigan St, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, NC St, Cincinnati, Iowa, Georgia, BYU, St Johns, Mississippi, Oklahoma St, Purdue, LSU

 

[cincrulz11]

2019: Baylor, VCU, Arizona St
2018: Nevada, Arizona St, Providence, St Bonaventure, NC St
2017: Butler, West Virginia, Dayton, Providence
2016: Miami, Kentucky, Indiana, Providence, Syracuse, Tulsa, Vanderbilt
2015: Michigan St, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, NC St, Cincinnati, Iowa, Georgia, BYU, St Johns, Mississippi, Oklahoma St, Purdue, LSU

1 team vs 33. not sure who to trust

 

[justinhub2003]

2019: Baylor, VCU, Arizona St
2018: Nevada, Arizona St, Providence, St Bonaventure, NC St
2017: Butler, West Virginia, Dayton, Providence
2016: Miami, Kentucky, Indiana, Providence, Syracuse, Tulsa, Vanderbilt
2015: Michigan St, Oklahoma, Providence, Xavier, NC St, Cincinnati, Iowa, Georgia, BYU, St Johns, Mississippi, Oklahoma St, Purdue, LSU

I was using kenpom and regular season only.

But I also spent time just looking at the lower seeds.

In 2019 you have VCU: but I only count 2 tier 3 losses in the regular season

I haven’t checked the rest.

 

[sedziobs]

Kenpom is irrelevant. You need to look at whatever the committee was using on their team sheets that year (NET or RPI). VCU lost two Q3 games in the regular season and then one in the conference tournament. That's still considered by the committee.

 

[justinhub2003]

Kenpom is irrelevant. You need to look at whatever the committee was using on their team sheets that year (NET or RPI). VCU lost two Q3 games in the regular season and then one in the conference tournament. That's still considered by the committee.

Kenpom final stats are lot closer to what the committee uses today.


So the reality is: we can only use 1 year then

And that’s last year.

 

[sedziobs]

NET is what the committee uses today. The rankings are available. There's no reason not to use them. RPI quadrant records are available before that. Your point is about tier 3/4 losses. The definition of what qualifies is determined by the committee. Use that definition.