2020 Bracketology

[justinhub2003]

Kenpom is irrelevant. You need to look at whatever the committee was using on their team sheets that year (NET or RPI). VCU lost two Q3 games in the regular season and then one in the conference tournament. That's still considered by the committee.

I’m comparing what’s relevant to UC as it stands today. 3 regular season losses.

And I’m looking at Miami which you have listed in 2016... and they were 15 in kenpom with 1 loss outside the top 75

 

[justinhub2003]

Like your teams don’t have correlation to UC at all.

You listed Kentucky in 2016

They lost 1 tier 3 game in kenpom’s and it was to auburn

The rest of their losses aren’t bad at all

They don’t have losses to teams like BGU, Colgate and tulane.

 

[sedziobs]

You're asking about our tournament chances, which takes into account the full season.

Miami lost to #114 Northeastern, #119 NC St, and #127 Clemson in 2016. Those were all tier 3 per 2016 criteria.

 

[Quadri's #1 fan]

NET is what the committee uses today. The rankings are available. There's no reason not to use them. RPI quadrant records are available before that. Your point is about tier 3/4 losses. The definition of what qualifies is determined by the committee. Use that definition.

Nonsense

 

[sedziobs]

It amazes me the great lengths you go to to argue against facts. I simply supplied a list of all at-large teams with 3+ Q3/Q4 losses. Those are facts. It's not up for debate. You can't disqualify them because they are big name schools, were in the conference tournament, or were better in Kenpom.

 

[justinhub2003]

Like your teams don’t have correlation to UC at all.

You listed Kentucky in 2016

They lost 1 tier 3 game in kenpom’s and it was to auburn

The rest of their losses aren’t bad at all

They don’t have losses to teams like BGU, Colgate and tulane.

 

[sedziobs]

In 2016, Kentucky lost to #110 UCLA, #142 Tennessee, and #179 Auburn. All of them had losing records. Tennessee and Auburn lost at least 19 games. 2020 Colgate and Bowling Green are better than them.

 

[justinhub2003]

It amazes me the great lengths you go to to to argue against facts. I simply supplied a list of all at-large teams with 3+ Q1/Q2 losses. Those are facts. It's not up for debate. You can't disqualify them because they are big name schools, were in the conference tournament, or were better in Kenpom.

Huh


I said teams with 3 tier 3 losses or more

 

[justinhub2003]

In 2016, Kentucky lost to #110 UCLA, #142 Tennessee, and #179 Auburn. All of them had losing records. Tennessee and Auburn lost at least 19 games. 2020 Colgate and Bowling Green are better than them.

UCLA was a road game.

That’s not tier 3

They were also 69 in kenpom.

Shows you how horrible RPI is.

 

[sedziobs]

Huh
I said teams with 3 tier 3 losses or more

Thanks, I fixed it

 

[sedziobs]

UCLA was a road game.
That’s not tier 3
They were also 69 in kenpom.
Shows you how horrible RPI is.

It was tier 3 in 2016, which is what matters.

 

[justinhub2003]

What scale are you using here?

110 away game a tier 2 game

 

[sedziobs]

Before 2017, it was just 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, 201+. There was no distinction between home and away.

 

[justinhub2003]

It was tier 3 in 2016, which is what matters.

So a true stat guy like your self should have said:
You can’t compare these teams because the scale has changed in both metric.

 

[sedziobs]

I'm not making any claims. I just posted the information.

But it is best practice to use the methodology of the time. If you want to know how bad losses affect at-large chances, you should only look at what information the committee was using when the decision was made. Using anything else is revisionist.

 

[justinhub2003]

I was talking the modern method and applying it to history.


The fact that Miami and Kentucky shows up as tier 3 losses shows how flawed the system was and why they changed it.


So the reality is... we have 1 year to compare valid data to

 

[sedziobs]

I'll agree that we only have one year of a true comparison. Which essentially means we can't draw any meaningful conclusions. We're better off just comparing the resumes of this year's bubble teams.

 

[sirthought]

Butler made it to the finals in 2011 (lost to UCONN).

They had losses to Youngstown St, Milwaukee (twice), Wright St., and Valpo

 

[justinhub2003]

Butler made it to the finals in 2011 (lost to UCONN).

They had losses to Youngstown St, Milwaukee (twice), Wright St., and Valpo

Butler doesn’t count though because they were at auto bid from winning their conference tourney.

 

[sedziobs]

We're back in the field in the latest bracketmatrix. Arizona St is still the first team out, but I'm sure they will move up after their Q1 win at Stanford last night. Stanford has lost 6 of 7, but all 7 of their remaining games are Q1/2 (5 of them Q1).

Bubble teams: (Q1, Q2, bad losses)

Virginia (2-3, 4-3, 1)
Arkansas (2-5, 2-3, 0)
Stanford (2-5, 2-2, 1)
Indiana (4-6, 2-2, 0)
VCU (1-4, 2-2, 1)
Cincinnati (2-5, 6-0, 3)
--------------------------
Arizona St (4-6, 4-2, 0)
Minnesota (4-10, 2-1, 0)
Utah St (2-4, 2-1, 2)
NC St (3-2, 4-4, 2)