About the Hawkeyes from a Hawkeye

[mdchick]

One thing I’m interested in, just about every year we have had an underclassmen guy break out in the tournament for us, it’s strange but it almost happens every year, starting back to Shaq Thomas vs creighton, Troy caupain against Purdue, Jacob Evans against st. Joes, and Jarron Cumberland the last 2 years was phenomenal against UCLA, Georgia state, and Nevada. So if history repeats itself someone like Keith Williams, Trevor Moore or Logan Johnson could have a breakout game for us.

 

[waterhead]

You made a great point earlier about iowa not being dribble penetrators. That would favor the cats ability to defend the 3.

And here, I agree completely as well. Iowa cannot handle Williams athleticism or Cumberland (who can). These 2 could create a lot of easy opportunities or fouls. But keith will have to play much better.

Thanks. I would think this is a game where we absolutely do not want to over help on penetration if they happen to try it. Stand your ground and force them to make contested 2's. We should not need to sag down much if at all....gotta stay glued to the shooters.

And you are right....this may be a perfect game for Williams to get his swag back!!

 

[waterhead]

its one of those games im intrigued to see how it plays out. we can't defend the 3, our defense against 3 point shooting is basically leave them wide open and hope they miss. it works out when 40% 3 point shooters go 5-25 like vs houston on sunday. however when they aren't off it can spell trouble.



on the flip side iowa doesn't appear to play very good defense. they can't stop 2 point shots, but we can't make them. they give up a ton of offensive rebounds and offensive rebounding is how we score.



should be a good one.

We can defend the 3 if we don't have to defend the penetration. Most of the teams we have played have a guard (or two) who can get in the lane at will. Davis, Martin, Taylor, Haynes-Jones, McMurray, Whitt, Jarreau, Adams, Gilbert, etc etc.

If we don't have to help (as much)...we don't have to leave the shooters open.

 

[cincyalum2014]

Big game Cumberland is just a different kind of player. After watching him in the AAC tourney he just looks more like a leader, he is getting his swag back at a great time. Houston is much better than Iowa and if Corey Davis and Dejon Jarreau cant stop Jarron Iowa will be hard pressed to find someone to match him. Now with that being said we know what Jarron can do but in my opinion Cane Broome and Tre Scott are the X- factors to this game. Both playing very well currently and when Cane is scoring man we are tough to beat.

 

[cincrulz11]

We can defend the 3 if we don't have to defend the penetration. Most of the teams we have played have a guard (or two) who can get in the lane at will. Davis, Martin, Taylor, Haynes-Jones, McMurray, Whitt, Jarreau, Adams, Gilbert, etc etc.

If we don't have to help (as much)...we don't have to leave the shooters open.

we've had trouble all year, even before we started playing teams that were athletic. its been a big problem since the beginning of the season. we give up a ton of 3 point shots. 42.8% of opponents shots are 3's, and thats the highest our program has ever allowed (the number has been gradually going up simply because the game is changing, but it took a massive jump up this year).


look at the design of what we were doing. when houston would pnr both guards would defend the guy with the ball and brooks would suck up and stay on the guy setting the pick. then jarron had to cover 2 guys, one on the wing and one in the corner. at first he was staying back and the wing was shooting wide open 3 after wide open 3. then he stepped up but the corner was wide open.


the way we switch and help leaves us open to overloading a side. you can set up open shots with some good ball movement and screens, it doesn't just have to be from penetrating past our guards.


north carolina central, milwaukee, nku, teams like that were getting wide open 3 after wide open 3. none of them have an offense anywhere close to as good as iowa.

 

[justinhub2003]

I'm fairly concerned with Iowa.

Here is why:

Nevada: #7 on Offense, #108 on Defense
UCLA: #2 on offense, #85 on Defense
St Joes: #32 on Offense, #63 on defense

Iowa: #15 on offense, #115 on Defense


Seems to be that the teams who beat us in the tourney have top 30 and mostly top 20 offenses. Great offense always beats great defense. Im not looking past Iowa one bit, they are really dangerous


However, it does seem that Iowa Struggles when they play slower paced grind it out teams.

 

[Madman81]

But, Nsoseme is simply insane on the boards. He currently leads the team in Total Rebound Percentage (TRB) at 17.6% and Defensive Rebound Percentage at 25.0% - that means when he is in the game he grabs 1 of every 4 defensive rebounds (10.4% ORB).

In conference play he has dropped off a bit, but I think that is mostly due to his ankle injury that he seems to be full recovered from now. He still leads the team in conference DRB at 20.2 (4th on team with 12.4% TRB).

he's averaged less than 6 minutes a game since the beginning of february - kinda hard to have an impact no matter how good your per playing time metrics are.

 

[skylinecat]

One thing I’m interested in, just about every year we have had an underclassmen guy break out in the tournament for us, it’s strange but it almost happens every year, starting back to Shaq Thomas vs creighton, Troy caupain against Purdue, Jacob Evans against st. Joes, and Jarron Cumberland the last 2 years was phenomenal against UCLA, Georgia state, and Nevada. So if history repeats itself someone like Keith Williams, Trevor Moore or Logan Johnson could have a breakout game for us.

IF we beat Iowa, I think you end up seeing Logan Johnson stepping up and playing the defensive stopper against Jordan Bone. He is too good to let him just blow by Justin/Cane all game. We lose by 15 points if those two are the primary defender on him all day. Plus it would be a huge wrinkle in the game plan for good ol' big game Rick Barnes.

 

[Queens_NYC]

One concern I have with Iowa that hasn't been discussed yet is how we'll deal with going up against two skilled and aggressive bigs in Cook and Garza. We really haven't faced a frontcourt in the AAC that compares to these two.

Does any one else have similar concerns?

 

[tonka]

One concern I have with Iowa that hasn't been discussed yet is how we'll deal with going up against two skilled and aggressive bigs in Cook and Garza. We really haven't faced a frontcourt in the AAC that compares to these two.

Does any one else have similar concerns?

Yes I have similar concerns. USF gave us some trouble with Yetna and Durr. They outrebounded us that game and Rideau ending up going off for 26 too.

The one good thing is they aren't a very good rebounding team so we should be able to still score but on the defensive end it may be a struggle. I am hoping that Scott can slow down Cook and that the matchup zone gives them some trouble. If we can start fast they may quit.

 

[skylinecat]

One concern I have with Iowa that hasn't been discussed yet is how we'll deal with going up against two skilled and aggressive bigs in Cook and Garza. We really haven't faced a frontcourt in the AAC that compares to these two.

Does any one else have similar concerns?

I've watched a lot of Iowa games. They are basically just a duplicate of the bigs for Wichita State. We've handled them decently in both match-ups.

 

[Jon Rycek]

One concern I have with Iowa that hasn't been discussed yet is how we'll deal with going up against two skilled and aggressive bigs in Cook and Garza. We really haven't faced a frontcourt in the AAC that compares to these two.

Does any one else have similar concerns?

Our inside defense is very good, so no

 

[MylesFoxMorrisey]

One thing I’m interested in, just about every year we have had an underclassmen guy break out in the tournament for us, it’s strange but it almost happens every year, starting back to Shaq Thomas vs creighton, Troy caupain against Purdue, Jacob Evans against st. Joes, and Jarron Cumberland the last 2 years was phenomenal against UCLA, Georgia state, and Nevada. So if history repeats itself someone like Keith Williams, Trevor Moore or Logan Johnson could have a breakout game for us.

Good point. One of the other things I remember from the St. Joe's game was Corey DeBerry looking like the best basketball player in the world out of nowhere for a stretch of time. He was a senior though. I'll say Fredericks has some good run on Friday, maybe 6-9 points and some key baskets.

 

[Helicopter]

I watch a lot of cbb and try to watch as much big ten, big east, SEC and ACC as I can. I truly believe this year the AAC has some of the best guards in the country (I put their recruit rankings in parenthesis for the hell of it):
Shizz Alston (4 star)
Jeremiah Martin (3 star)
Jarron Cumberland (4 star)
BJ Taylor (3 star)
Corey Davis Jr (0 star)
David Collins (3 star)
Jahmal McMurray (3 star)
Aubrey Dawkins (3 star)

 

[sedziobs]

Statistically (per Torvik), Iowa's biggest strength is getting to the free throw line. They are 12th best in the country, and they convert at a 74% rate. We have seen a couple teams better than Iowa at getting to the line though, as USF and UCF are the top two teams in the country in that category.

Iowa's weaknesses are 2pt defense (#295) and defensive rebounding(#220), which I would guess are related. This is where we really need to impose our will, since we are top 5 in offensive rebounding. If they are playing a soft zone, I wouldn't mind trying a lot of threes and crashing the glass. Our 2pt offense is ranked #278, so that's really just weakness vs weakness.

 

[cincrulz11]

Statistically (per Torvik), Iowa's biggest strength is getting to the free throw line. They are 12th best in the country, and they convert at a 74% rate. We have seen a couple teams better than Iowa at getting to the line though, as USF and UCF are the top two teams in the country in that category.

Iowa's weaknesses are 2pt defense (#295) and defensive rebounding(#220), which I would guess are related. This is where we really need to impose our will, since we are top 5 in offensive rebounding. If they are playing a soft zone, I wouldn't mind trying a lot of threes and crashing the glass. Our 2pt offense is ranked #278, so that's really just weakness vs weakness.

i like a chuck it and go get it strategy in this game too. we rarely throw it to the post so we'll just have to get the ball down there by getting it off the glass.



as i said before i think this is a fun match up. strength vs strength (their o vs our d) and weakness vs weakness (their d vs our o)

 

[sedziobs]

According to Torvik's PRPG, which accounts for offensive efficiency and usage rate, Iowa's best offensive player is Joe Weiskamp. But he has generally not performed against good competition, instead putting up huge numbers against inferior opponents. He had two decent games against tourney teams: a win over Michigan (16 pts, 7 reb) and a loss to Ohio St (17 pts). In all other games against tourney teams, he averaged just 5 points. His PRPG for the season is 3.7, but it drops to 2.3 against top 50 opponents. I would guess a large part of that is due to Weiskamp being a freshman.

Luke Garza, a 6-11 sophomore, is the player who most often shows up in big games. His overall PRPG of 3.5 is the same against top 50 competition. Garza averaged 21 pts in a three game stretch against Michigan St, Minnesota, and Michigan. But even he has quite a few duds mixed in (4 vs Iowa St, 5 vs Maryland, 6 vs Ohio St, 6 vs Wisconsin).

All of these numbers fit with Honest Iowa Fan's assessment:

We do have a pretty good arsenal of shooters but our entire back court is hot and cold, and only Weiskamp is a real threat to consistently take someone on the dribble and finish, but he is a freshman who tends to get under-utilized if we get to obsessed with trying to get the others rolling. Bohannon, Moss and Weiskamp will either have a 20+ point game or only be seen on a milk carton. There are games where none of them really get going at all.

 

[sedziobs]

The eye test says Jordan Bohannon is the scariest player, but eye tests are very subjective. Midseason, Iowa was one of the teams I was tracking as our seeding competition, so I watched quite a few of their games. Bohannon saved them from bad losses in three consecutive games against Indiana, Northwestern, and Rutgers in early February. He went 11-19 from three in those games, including quite a few miracle shots in crunch time that were off balance and well defended (although Weiskamp made the miracle game winner at the buzzer against Rutgers). He scored 11 points in the final 90 seconds against Indiana and 11 points in the final 3 minutes against Northwestern, including a game winning three at the buzzer. Iowa won that trio of games by an average of 3 points.

 

[waterhead]

It seems like Iowa is wildly inconsistent. They are either on or off and it looks like their confidence follows.

In looking at "game score" on Torvik site which basically measures performace vs expectations and compares it to the NCAA average team.

UC has had 3 scores under the 50 line (which would be the average team performance in the NCAA and a pretty horrible performance by a tourney team). And we have 1 more game under 75%. The rest of our scores are betwee 75 and 99. None under 75 since the first Uconn game. Pretty consistent.

Iowa on the other hand has 5 games below 50 and 12 games under 75. 4 of the last 6 games have been under 50 but the other two were 90 and 99. It seems like they are either filled with confidence or get dejected easily based on these numbers.

It would be really nice to take them out of it early to deflate them. Most of the work would be done at that point if the theory is correct.

 

[hawk_a_holic]

I'd appreciate it if you didn't make us feel dejected early in the game. In truth, we will be with you through the 1st half. If you pull away it will be the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half. However, while Iowa does deserve much of the criticism it has received in how they finished this year, we also got the same from 15 and 16 when in 15 we smoked Davidson by 30 (almost everyone picked us to lose). Different team I know. Still, we do have a lot of scorers and have had big games with tremendous defensive efforts. It is true that you just don't know what you will get until the 2nd half really. I think Garza will be the key in this game as he can score in bunches all over the court and a guy like Kriener will be vital. Bohannon is an assassin as he is often quiet and then goes off. This game will be close. My biggest concern is your ability to attack the rim (which is our top defensive flaw in defending that). This outcome will also be predicated on how physical the refs allow this to be. We get to the foul line a lot and hit 74%. We do tend to panic when the opponents put a big run on us where we depend on chucking up 3's. Fran is incredibly slow at calling a TO when runs are being put together against us which is maddening. Also, if anyone gets a 2nd foul in the 1st half you won't see them until after halftime.