Big10 controls UC's Fate
University of Cincinnati athletic director Mike Thomas says he's not losing any sleep over the possibility of a seismic shift in college athletics - at least not yet.
Thomas is confident the Big East Conference will survive as the home for UC athletics but concedes that at this point, "It's difficult to speculate on what will happen."
Conference realignment has been one of the hottest topics in college athletics, and everyone seems to speculate as to what will transpire.
But at this point, only one thing appears certain: The Big Ten Conference - which could increase its current 11-member configuration to 12, 14, or 16 schools - is calling the shots in this unfolding drama. And what it decides, as early as this December, about expansion could have a major impact on UC and the other Big East schools.
That's why John Marinatto, the first-year commissioner of the Big East, hired former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue as a consultant in an attempt to help position the conference to absorb whatever shock might be coming.
Membership in the Big East has been good to UC, both from a financial standpoint and a competitive standpoint, especially when it comes to football. It allowed the Bearcats to elevate their football program to the point where it played in the Orange Bowl two seasons ago and the Sugar Bowl this year.
"It has branded us in a different way," Thomas said.
Unfortunately for UC and the Big East, there's very little the league could do to protect itself if the Big Ten decides to expand, according to Bill Carr, who heads a search and management consultant firm for intercollegiate athletics.
"They can't prevent it," Carr said. "They can just be prepared to deal with the aftermath."
The Big Ten can offer its members annual payouts of $22 million, compared with the $7 million Big East members receive.
And the Big East has what the Big Ten covets - major Northeast television markets, including five of the nation's top 14. Marinatto sees that as the conference's strength, and Carr agrees. But Carr says it's also what makes Big East teams such an attractive targets for the Big Ten.
Much of the impetus for possible Big Ten expansion is coming from the Big Ten Network, a major revenue source the league is hoping to expand. The best way to do that is to add large television markets, with New York as one of the prime targets.
The Big Ten could accomplish that by plucking Rutgers, across the river from New York City in New Jersey; Syracuse, in upstate New York; or nearby Connecticut - all members of the Big East. It also could pursue the Pittsburgh market, or enhance its national TV appeal by adding Notre Dame, an independent program in football but a Big East member in all other sports.
"The configuration of a Connecticut and a Rutgers in the Big Ten would bring huge numbers in the Northeast," Carr said.
Domino effect
It's not only the Big East that could be affected. Missouri, Nebraska and Texas from the Big 12 all have been mentioned as schools that could be in play once the Big Ten dominoes begin to fall, setting off a chain reaction that could extend to the Pac-10, the Mountain West and even the Western Athletic Conference as the six BCS football conferences attempt to shield themselves from extinction.
"I think every conference except the Big Ten and the SEC (with its CBS/ESPN TV deal) is vulnerable," Carr said. "Those two conferences are the 800-pound gorillas. The sequence is the only difference between the SEC and the Big Ten. The Big Ten's agenda is a little different because they've got a network they're trying to build. They have a whole new paradigm which they're considering."
Marinatto and most of the eight Big East members that play BCS football - UC, Connecticut, Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers and South Florida - derive solace from the fact that the conference prematurely was declared dead just five years ago when Boston College, Virginia Tech and Miami fled for the Atlantic Coast Conference, leaving the Big East with only five football schools.
The Big East responded by raiding Conference USA for UC, Louisville and South Florida for all sports, plus Marquette and DePaul for all sports except football, and has flourished since.
"When we went through this whole situation five years ago, there were so many people who believed it would never work," said Marinatto, who was the league's senior associate commissioner at the time. "There were even some people internally who thought that under its own weight it wouldn't survive because it was too unwieldy, too big. Everyone was talking about the negative. Quite the opposite has been the case. We've done extremely well. I feel like déjà vu in so many ways."
Follow the money
In an attempt to prevent schools from leaving, the Big East rewrote its by-laws in 2005 so that instead of having to wait one year and pay $1 million to leave, a conference member now must wait 27 months and pay $5 million. But with the money to be made from a move to the Big Ten, those requirements are unlikely to dissuade a school from moving.
"If Rutgers and Connecticut have an invitation and can see they're going to get X-million dollars per year and be a part of such a prestigious conference, there's no way the Big East can prevent that from happening because money talks," Carr said.
With Tagliabue at the point, Marinatto said, the Big East is putting everything on the table in an attempt to enhance the league. That includes studying the ramifications of expansion, adding a football championship game and increasing from its current 16 basketball teams to a 20-team league with four pods of five teams each.
The league also is studying the benefits of starting its own television network, despite its close and long-standing relationship with ESPN.
"The Big East and ESPN were both born in 1979, in the same month," Marinatto said. "We've grown up together. We have a terrific long-term relationship with them. We're the oldest partner they have. But we have to analyze what's out here and determine what, moving forward, is the best situation for us."
Carr said it's significant that the Big Ten has hired the Chicago investment firm William Blair & Company to do research.
"They're the resource you go to when you have a big corporation and think about buying other companies and you want to know which are the strongest," Carr said. "That's what they do. With them, it's not an emotional thing or a rah-rah issue. It's dollars and cents."
Ultimately, that's what drives college athletics on the BCS level, with football as the engine.
ACC possible for UC?
Some think Big Ten expansion ultimately could lead to the formation of four 16-team football conferences that will break away from the NCAA, conduct their own national championship and keep the money for themselves.
If that happens, UC's Thomas said, he's confident the Bearcats would be among those 64 schools.
Under one scenario put forth this week in Sports Illustrated, the Big Ten would raid the Big East for two teams and add Missouri and Nebraska from the Big 12, essentially killing the Big East and forcing Notre Dame to align with the Big Ten.
The Atlantic Coast Conference would then add UC, Louisville, West Virginia and Syracuse to complete its version of a super-conference.
But at this point, nothing is guaranteed.
"I don't think there's any way to predict that at this point," Carr said. "It is entirely possible that UC could be left out. UC just got there. It's the last-in, first-out principle. Louisville could be in the same boat. All of those schools could be in the same dilemma. The whole sequence is going to be determined by who is taken by the Big Ten, which direction they try to go, who they take and how many do they take."
Marinatto remains confident the Big East will survive. But for now, these are anxious times for everyone in the conference, especially for Marinatto, whose job is to make sure the Big East can withstand whatever happens.
"My role is to manage the anxieties that exist among our 16 schools while trying to keep a clear head and do what's best for all of our schools," Marinatto said.
In the end, after all the hand-wringing and sky-is-falling, the change to the Big East could be minimal.
As UC basketball coach Mick Cronin said, "I think people are assuming they know what the Big Ten is thinking. Remember, everybody thought the NCAA Tournament was going to 96 (teams). Not one person thought it was going to 68. And it went to 68."
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