Bracketology

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kskenyon4

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With 2 months before selection Sunday, we are officially at or beyond the half way point of the season with 17 games played, and a 14-3 record. Lets keep track of latest projections from 'experts' as well as the board's thoughts.

Jan 15
ESPN - 9 seed vs Iowa
CBS - 11 seed in first 4 against Arizona
FOX - 8 seed against Seton Hall
Bracketmatrix - 9 seed


Resume
14-3 (3-1)
NET = 35
SOS/Non Con SOS - 88/73
Tier 1 = 1-1
Tier 2 = 1-1
Tier 3 = 6-1
Tier 4 = 6-0

We have several teams on the cusp of moving 'up' a tier, which I think we will need. A 2-2 record against tiers 1 and 2 is very concerning. All 7 of our remaining road games are either tier 1 or 2. I think they will define if we're in the tournament, and our seed.
 
kskenyon4 said:
With 2 months before selection Sunday, we are officially at or beyond the half way point of the season with 17 games played, and a 14-3 record. Lets keep track of latest projections from 'experts' as well as the board's thoughts.

Jan 15
ESPN - 9 seed vs Iowa
CBS - 11 seed in first 4 against Arizona
FOX - 8 seed against Seton Hall
Bracketmatrix - 9 seed


Resume
14-3 (3-1)
NET = 35
SOS/Non Con SOS - 88/73
Tier 1 = 1-1
Tier 2 = 1-1
Tier 3 = 6-1
Tier 4 = 6-0

We have several teams on the cusp of moving 'up' a tier, which I think we will need. A 2-2 record against tiers 1 and 2 is very concerning. All 7 of our remaining road games are either tier 1 or 2. I think they will define if we're in the tournament, and our seed.
Click to expand...

I think the Cats finish 25-6 by the end of conference play (losses @ HOU/UCONN/UCF).

If they win the conference tourney with that end result, I don't see them any worse than a 5 seed. If they don't win the conference tourney, I could see them in the 8,9 game unfortunately.
 
Queens_NYC said:
ESPN 1/18 Update

9 seed playing against TCU in Columbus.

Winner would likely play Michigan.
Click to expand...

That would be ideal, only 2 teams that scare me are Gonzaga and Tennessee and playing in Columbus I’d take it in a heart beat
 
mdchick said:
That would be ideal, only 2 teams that scare me are Gonzaga and Tennessee and playing in Columbus I’d take it in a heart beat
Click to expand...

I agree. That match-up would through the East region. Midwest region 7v10 and 2v15 1st and 2nd round match-ups also are in Columbus.

I'd take being a 10 seed in Columbus over being a higher seed nearly anywhere else if our regular season ceiling is really going to be a bit lower than last year.
 
ESPN 1/21 Update

8 seed playing against Texas in Columbus.

Winner would likely play Michigan State.
 
We have 11 games left and we have the hardest remaining schedule in the conference. There are 3 games we are picked by double digits on Bartorvik...SMU, WSU, and Memphis at home. We have to win those games. That would put us at 20-3. Then we have 8 more games and 6 of them are predicted to come down to basically one possession and the other 2 games are predicted to 2 possessions.

If we manage to win all the home games that would bring us to 22-3 with the other 6 road games remaining. If we can somehow split those I think we will be looking really good on selection Sunday at 25-6 with a chance to win the conference. I would still be happy with 24-7. I think we could be in the 5-7 seed range with 6-7 losses. According to T-rank 7 losses would put us at 21 projected in the NET.

Just want to avoid that 8-9 seed.
 
waterhead said:
We have 11 games left and we have the hardest remaining schedule in the conference. There are 3 games we are picked by double digits on Bartorvik...SMU, WSU, and Memphis at home. We have to win those games. That would put us at 20-3. Then we have 8 more games and 6 of them are predicted to come down to basically one possession and the other 2 games are predicted to 2 possessions.

If we manage to win all the home games that would bring us to 22-3 with the other 6 road games remaining. If we can somehow split those I think we will be looking really good on selection Sunday at 25-6 with a chance to win the conference. I would still be happy with 24-7. I think we could be in the 5-7 seed range with 6-7 losses. According to T-rank 7 losses would put us at 21 projected in the NET.

Just want to avoid that 8-9 seed.
Click to expand...

Went into the season just wanting to get into the tourney, I’m sticking to that mindset, win 23 games in the regular season and then 1 in the conference tourney we are in easy
 
mdchick said:
Went into the season just wanting to get into the tourney, I’m sticking to that mindset, win 23 games in the regular season and then 1 in the conference tourney we are in easy
Click to expand...

This is true. If we make the tourney I will also be happy even if we struggle a bit down the stretch. I guess the bottom line is...out of 11 games...we need to make sure we win more than half of them. And then at least 1 conference tourney win.
 
I would put 7 losses as the over under right now give or take 1 game. I would probably bet the over before the under as of now...even after last night
 
Currently we only have three quality wins. Of our 11 remaining games, five are in Q1, four are in Q2 and three are in Q3. If we go 7-4, that's at least eight quality wins. We had 13 last year, with no bad losses. We only had six in 2017, but also no bad losses. So I think 7-4 puts us in the 6 seed range. 6-5 with an early conference tourney exit probably puts us in the dreaded 8-9 range.

I'll start comparing our resume to teams close to us on bracketmatrix in a few weeks. It's still a little early for that.
 
The games from here on out are going to mean more and more to each team we play that has a shot to win the conference or make the dance. Not only does the competition get tougher but the stakes are higher the further we go.

We are in for some brutal brawls. I think Cronin has to get Brooks and Scott ready the most for this. Battling for boards and playing through contact etc. It's going to test our heart and focus. We are going to find out who is up for the challenge. I don't worry as much about our guards. Other than Keith they have all played significant minutes in these types of games but Keith is a gamer so I am not too worried about him either.

If Scott and Brooks can hold their own we will be just fine. If one or both play softer than necessary the guards will need to pick up the slack.
 
waterhead said:
The games from here on out are going to mean more and more to each team we play that has a shot to win the conference or make the dance. Not only does the competition get tougher but the stakes are higher the further we go.

We are in for some brutal brawls. I think Cronin has to get Brooks and Scott ready the most for this. Battling for boards and playing through contact etc. It's going to test our heart and focus. We are going to find out who is up for the challenge. I don't worry as much about our guards. Other than Keith they have all played significant minutes in these types of games but Keith is a gamer so I am not too worried about him either.

If Scott and Brooks can hold their own we will be just fine. If one or both play softer than necessary the guards will need to pick up the slack.
Click to expand...

Playing tougher begins with finishing and 1s for our big men. I swear we have so many opportunities for 3 point plays and we go up soft when expecting contact. It drives me mad. Our guards don't seem to have that issue, i.e. Cane and Jarron.
 
jbreeds1 said:
Playing tougher begins with finishing and 1s for our big men. I swear we have so many opportunities for 3 point plays and we go up soft when expecting contact. It drives me mad. Our guards don't seem to have that issue, i.e. Cane and Jarron.
Click to expand...

Agree.
 
jbreeds1 said:
Playing tougher begins with finishing and 1s for our big men. I swear we have so many opportunities for 3 point plays and we go up soft when expecting contact. It drives me mad. Our guards don't seem to have that issue, i.e. Cane and Jarron.
Click to expand...
I agree. Every team and player has their collective inadequacies. They will never be those players who finish strong, however they do other things pretty well.
 

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