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Bracketology
- Thread starter kskenyon4
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Queens_NYC
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ESPN- still a 7 seed, but facing Texas now with the winner facing Kentucky.
I know a lot of things can happen down the stretch but my hopes are to get in the dance at a 7 seed or less. This will probably mean we need a record of 24-7 or better as the seed will come very close to matching our loss total. With that being said...
Must wins
SMU, WSU, Memphis, UCF at home
Probable loss
Houston away
That would put us at 22-4 which would mean we have to take at least 2 games from the following 5...
SMU away without Foster
Houston at home on Sr day
UCF away on their Sr day
Uconn away is never easy and they took us to overtime already
Memphis away where they haven't lost yet and beat UCF by 20
I don't care how you slice this up I will be happy with 24-7 and anything better is awesome. I don't want to think about anything worse right now. Houston and UC will have the target on their back to add to the difficulty.
Must wins
SMU, WSU, Memphis, UCF at home
Probable loss
Houston away
That would put us at 22-4 which would mean we have to take at least 2 games from the following 5...
SMU away without Foster
Houston at home on Sr day
UCF away on their Sr day
Uconn away is never easy and they took us to overtime already
Memphis away where they haven't lost yet and beat UCF by 20
I don't care how you slice this up I will be happy with 24-7 and anything better is awesome. I don't want to think about anything worse right now. Houston and UC will have the target on their back to add to the difficulty.
I think I rank the games from easiest to hardest as:
SMU
WSU
@SMU
@UCONN
UCF
@MEMPHIS
@UCF
HOUSTON
@HOUSTON
In all reality, your must wins are SMU/WSU/@SMU. In the remaining 7, just gotta go 4-3, and sit at 25-6. Which I think is a 6 seed.
SMU
WSU
@SMU
@UCONN
UCF
@MEMPHIS
@UCF
HOUSTON
@HOUSTON
In all reality, your must wins are SMU/WSU/@SMU. In the remaining 7, just gotta go 4-3, and sit at 25-6. Which I think is a 6 seed.
I think I rank the games from easiest to hardest as:
SMU
WSU
@SMU
@UCONN
UCF
@MEMPHIS
@UCF
HOUSTON
@HOUSTON
In all reality, your must wins are SMU/WSU/@SMU. In the remaining 7, just gotta go 4-3, and sit at 25-6. Which I think is a 6 seed.
I would probably go in tiers something like this...
SMU home
WSU home
Memphis home
UCF home
SMU away (depends on Foster) move up or down accordingly
Houston home
UCF away
Uconn away
Memphis away
Houston away
Torvik ranks our remaining games from easiest to hardest as:
Wichita St
SMU
Memphis
UCF
@SMU
Houston
@Memphis
@UConn
@UCF
@Houston
That matches Waterhead's tiers, which also correspond to actual NET quadrants. SMU/WSU are Q3. Memphis/UCF/@SMU are Q2. The rest are Q1.
Wichita St
SMU
Memphis
UCF
@SMU
Houston
@Memphis
@UConn
@UCF
@Houston
That matches Waterhead's tiers, which also correspond to actual NET quadrants. SMU/WSU are Q3. Memphis/UCF/@SMU are Q2. The rest are Q1.
Torvik ranks our remaining games from easiest to hardest as:
Wichita St
SMU
Memphis
UCF
@SMU
Houston
@Memphis
@UConn
@UCF
@Houston
That matches Waterhead's tiers, which also correspond to actual NET quadrants. SMU/WSU are Q3. Memphis/UCF/@SMU are Q2. The rest are Q1.
We didn't lose any conference home games 2 years ago. We lost 1 last year. We haven't lost one this year yet. Our advantage is clearly at home and I don't expect more than 1 loss at home if that. That doesn't mean it can't happen but I would obviously give Houston a decent chance. The rest of the home games we would have to play like crap and the other team would have to really be on their A game to beat us.
Queens_NYC
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2/5 ESPN Update
7 seed in the Midwest Region playing 10 seed Arizona State in Jacksonville.
Winner would likely play 2 seed North Carolina.
7 seed in the Midwest Region playing 10 seed Arizona State in Jacksonville.
Winner would likely play 2 seed North Carolina.
Queens_NYC
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2/8 ESPN Update
7 seed in the South Region playing 10 seed Minnesota in Des Moines.
Winner would likely play 2 seed Kentucky.
7 seed in the South Region playing 10 seed Minnesota in Des Moines.
Winner would likely play 2 seed Kentucky.
We're currently a 7 seed on bracketmatrix. Here's a comparison of our resume to teams in the 6-8 seed range. Records are (Q1,Q2,bad losses).
6 Kansas St (5-2,4-3,0)
6 Maryland (4-4,6-2,0)
6 Iowa (5-5,5-0,0)
6 Florida St (4-3,4-1,1)
7 Miss St (6-4,3-3,0)
7 Cincinnati (3-2,3-1,1)
7 Auburn (0-6,6-1,0)
7 Buffalo (1-1,3-1,1)
8 Washington (1-4,5-1,0)
8 Baylor (3-5,6-1,2)
8 Ohio St (4-5,3-2,0)
8 TCU (1-6,5-0,0)
We seem to be comfortably ahead of the 8 seeds, with the possible exception of Ohio St. It will be an uphill battle to catch the 6 seed teams, who all have at least eight quality wins. We certainly have lots of opportunities coming up.
6 Kansas St (5-2,4-3,0)
6 Maryland (4-4,6-2,0)
6 Iowa (5-5,5-0,0)
6 Florida St (4-3,4-1,1)
7 Miss St (6-4,3-3,0)
7 Cincinnati (3-2,3-1,1)
7 Auburn (0-6,6-1,0)
7 Buffalo (1-1,3-1,1)
8 Washington (1-4,5-1,0)
8 Baylor (3-5,6-1,2)
8 Ohio St (4-5,3-2,0)
8 TCU (1-6,5-0,0)
We seem to be comfortably ahead of the 8 seeds, with the possible exception of Ohio St. It will be an uphill battle to catch the 6 seed teams, who all have at least eight quality wins. We certainly have lots of opportunities coming up.
Jay Bilas released his top 68. Has UC #25 as 2nd weekend contenders. He says:
"This is the first time in forever that Cincinnati's offense is better than its defense. Mick Cronin is now an offensive coach. One of the reasons is the play of junior guard Jarron Cumberland, who is shooting better from 3 than from 2. Cumberland has hit 61 3-point field goals, but only he and Justin Jenifer (40) have hit more than 18."
Has Houston #10 as Final Four contenders.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...llege-basketball-rankings-tiers-valentine-day
"This is the first time in forever that Cincinnati's offense is better than its defense. Mick Cronin is now an offensive coach. One of the reasons is the play of junior guard Jarron Cumberland, who is shooting better from 3 than from 2. Cumberland has hit 61 3-point field goals, but only he and Justin Jenifer (40) have hit more than 18."
Has Houston #10 as Final Four contenders.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...llege-basketball-rankings-tiers-valentine-day
Cin City
Well-known member
The tourney is a crapshoot. That's not a knock. In regards to Houston, the have a senior PG and two guards that can shoot the living shit out of the ball...that's a nice recipe come March. I wouldn't be surprised if they did, but it's all about matchups. For instance, if Houston and Marquette payed in the Elite 8 or Sweet 16...that's a matchup of two teams that mirror one another (In my non-paid opinion).Jay Bilas released his top 68. Has UC #25 as 2nd weekend contenders. He says:
"This is the first time in forever that Cincinnati's offense is better than its defense. Mick Cronin is now an offensive coach. One of the reasons is the play of junior guard Jarron Cumberland, who is shooting better from 3 than from 2. Cumberland has hit 61 3-point field goals, but only he and Justin Jenifer (40) have hit more than 18."
Has Houston #10 as Final Four contenders.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...llege-basketball-rankings-tiers-valentine-day
The bracket will be interesting to say the least I think.
In other news, depending on our path, we could make a nice run (lord knows we're due) but we could also see a Wofford in round 1 and be ousted.
Who the hell knows!?!?!?
Quadri's #1 fan
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Team A:
25-2
Q1 wins: 0,
Q2 wins: 8,
Q3/4 losses: 1
SOS 118
Team B:
23-4
Q1 wins: 3
Q2 wins: 5
Q3/4 losses: 1
SOS 76
Nevada
Nevada
Who is a 5 seed in ESPN/CBS projections compared to Cincy's 7 seed. Hopefully the committee see's the above and feels we are at minimum neck and neck and not 2 seed lines apart.
I like Torvik's site because it is free and has tons of cool customizable features. But I think his ranking system is inferior to Kenpom. It values blowout margins too much, and is very volatile. As an example, UCF moved up from 44 to 33 after their blowout over SMU. On Kenpom UCF is still 45. Similarly, UC has been close to 30 all season on Kenpom, but we were ranked as high as 15 at the start of conference play before falling to 32 on T-Rank.We are doing a good job of winning basketball games so we look good for our quadrant wins and losses but we are doing a poor job with our metrics.
We were ranked #19 after the ECU loss (per T-rank). We are now ranked #31 after winning 11 of 12 games. The Houston loss dropped us only 1 spot. So in the other 11 wins we have dropped a total of 11 spots. Every game since Tulsa we have either lost ground or stayed about even. That includes 6 out of 7 wins.
Any way you slice it, our current efficiency rating near 30 puts us in the 8 seed range. Our resume is in the 6/7 seed range. Altogether it equals a 7 seed.
There has also been talk of Nevada. While their resume is probably 7/8 seed quality, their 22 ranking in Kenpom is in the 6 seed range. Their game at Utah St this Saturday will probably determine their fate, since it could be their only Q1 game of the season.
I like Torvik's site because it is free and has tons of cool customizable features. But I think his ranking system is inferior to Kenpom. It values blowout margins too much, and is very volatile. As an example, UCF moved up from 44 to 33 after their blowout over SMU. On Kenpom UCF is still 45. Similarly, UC has been close to 30 all season on Kenpom, but we were ranked as high as 15 at the start of conference play before falling to 32 on T-Rank.
Any way you slice it, our current efficiency rating near 30 puts us in the 8 seed range. Our resume is in the 6/7 seed range. Altogether it equals a 7 seed.
There has also been talk of Nevada. While their resume is probably 7/8 seed quality, their 22 ranking in Kenpom is in the 6 seed range. Their game at Utah St this Saturday will probably determine their fate, since it could be their only Q1 game of the season.
You are probably right on Kenpom he's been doing it a long time. However, I felt like the 15 rank on T-rank seemed appropriate at the time. It seems to me we were playing better basketball at the time. Of course all the teams in our league are familiar with Cronin so it's harder to blow them out.
It's really hard to put a pure rank on this team given our metrics don't exactly line up with our poll ranks etc. Are we around 30th best team or are we closer to 20? I guess it's really a pretty small margin all things considered. Whether the blowouts are over valued I sure would like to see one again soon...but I'll take the W's any day.
March 1 bracketology update:
Records are (Q1,Q2,bad losses).
6 Nevada (0-0,8-1,1)
6 Miss St (9-4,2-3,0)
6 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
6 Villanova (4-6,10-2,0)
7 Iowa (4-7,7-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Cincinnati (4-2,5-1,1)
7 Washington (1-4,5-1,1)
8 Baylor (4-6,8-1,2)
8 Auburn (2-7,8-2,0)
8 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
8 Ole Miss (4-8,3-1,0)
Records are (Q1,Q2,bad losses).
6 Nevada (0-0,8-1,1)
6 Miss St (9-4,2-3,0)
6 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
6 Villanova (4-6,10-2,0)
7 Iowa (4-7,7-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Cincinnati (4-2,5-1,1)
7 Washington (1-4,5-1,1)
8 Baylor (4-6,8-1,2)
8 Auburn (2-7,8-2,0)
8 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
8 Ole Miss (4-8,3-1,0)
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Doesn't Villanova have a couple home bad losses?March 1 bracketology update:
Records are (Q1,Q2,bad losses).
6 Nevada (0-0,8-1,1)
6 Miss St (9-4,2-3,0)
6 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
6 Villanova (4-6,10-2,0)
7 Iowa (4-7,7-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Cincinnati (4-2,5-1,1)
7 Washington (1-4,5-1,1)
8 Baylor (4-6,8-1,2)
8 Auburn (2-7,8-2,0)
8 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
8 Ole Miss (4-8,3-1,0)
You're probably thinking of Furman, but they are 46 in the NET. They also lost at Penn. Both are Q2 games.Doesn't Villanova have a couple home bad losses?