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Yes. I guess not East Carolina bad but both were home nonetheless.
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Bracketology
- Thread starter kskenyon4
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Yes. I guess not East Carolina bad but both were home nonetheless.
Quadri's #1 fan
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Yes. I guess not East Carolina bad but both were home nonetheless.
They're not even close to as bad.
Torvik has us as a 7 seed right now. His Teamcast says we remain a 7 seed if we lose both remaining games or split. If we win both, we move all the way up to a 5 seed. If we win out, including the conference tournament, we can get a 4 seed. So basically anything from a 4 to a 7 seed is in play according to Torvik.
Torvik has us as a 7 seed right now. His Teamcast says we remain a 7 seed if we lose both remaining games or split. If we win both, we move all the way up to a 5 seed. If we win out, including the conference tournament, we can get a 4 seed. So basically anything from a 4 to a 7 seed is in play according to Torvik.
I think the committee has a lot of the seeding done before the tourney final. It would be interesting to know if we were predicted as a 4 seed if we just make the finals on the Torvik site. Otherwise we might still be in the 5-7 range if there was a lot of weight put on that final game.
I'm kinda hoping for that 6 seed in a good bracket. I think we would have to not only win but win convincingly to move all the way up to a 4 because our metrics are too low and even then the final tourney game may not factor in. I think our cap is a 5 seed if we continue to claw out wins and make the finals. But a lot of that depends on other teams as well.
I just want to see some better overall basketball. We are starting to click on D but we need the offense to get going again.
Going to 2-0 and then making the finals gives us a 5 seed, as does going 2-0 and losing in the first round. Going 1-1 and then making the finals gives us a 6 seed.
Thank you
Dave Ommen at Bracketville, the top ranked bracketologist on bracketmatrix over the last 5 years, has UC up to a 6 seed. I think I'm going to start using his bracket for tracking games, since bracketmatrix takes a few days to catch up.
March 8 bracketology update:
Records are (Q1,Q2,Q3/4 losses).
5 Wisconsin (8-7,5-1,0)
5 Virginia Tech (4-7,6-0,0)
5 Maryland (6-7,6-2,0)
5 Mississippi St (8-6,4-3,0)
6 Villanova (5-5,10-3,0)
6 Iowa St (5-6,5-4,0)
6 Nevada (1-1,7-1,1)
6 Cincinnati (4-3,6-1,1)
7 Buffalo (2-1,4-1,1)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Auburn (2-7,11-2,0)
7 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
Records are (Q1,Q2,Q3/4 losses).
5 Wisconsin (8-7,5-1,0)
5 Virginia Tech (4-7,6-0,0)
5 Maryland (6-7,6-2,0)
5 Mississippi St (8-6,4-3,0)
6 Villanova (5-5,10-3,0)
6 Iowa St (5-6,5-4,0)
6 Nevada (1-1,7-1,1)
6 Cincinnati (4-3,6-1,1)
7 Buffalo (2-1,4-1,1)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Auburn (2-7,11-2,0)
7 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)
End of season seeding according to Dave Ommen:
6 Nevada (1-1,7-1,1)
6 Auburn (3-7,10-2,0)
6 Villanova (5-6,10-3,0)
6 Cincinnati (4-4,6-1,1)
7 Iowa St (5-7,3-4,0)
7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
7 Wofford (3-4,5-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-10,4-2,0)
Villanova, Iowa St and Louisville have all lost at least 4 of their last 6. So our two Q1 losses to end the season don't really hurt us other than as a missed opportunity.
6 Nevada (1-1,7-1,1)
6 Auburn (3-7,10-2,0)
6 Villanova (5-6,10-3,0)
6 Cincinnati (4-4,6-1,1)
7 Iowa St (5-7,3-4,0)
7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
7 Wofford (3-4,5-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-10,4-2,0)
Villanova, Iowa St and Louisville have all lost at least 4 of their last 6. So our two Q1 losses to end the season don't really hurt us other than as a missed opportunity.
Queens_NYC
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I think if we make the AAC finals we'll likely be a 6 win or lose. Anything less and we'll likely be a 7. Of course other teams making big moves could change things.
That seems pretty likely to me. We're still the highest 7 seed on Bracket Matrix (6.72 average) and the three 6 seeds ahead of us (Villanova, Buffalo, Auburn) are all pretty vulnerable to early (pre-finals) upsets in their respective conference tourneys.
With Wofford now done for the season, I think they're looking pretty good for a 6 seed. They are now 3-4 in Q1 and 6-0 in Q2 with no bad losses. Compare that to our 4-4 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2 with a bad loss. Plus, Wofford is 14 in NET, 15 in BPI and 18 in Kenpom. Each of those is considerably better than us.
Lunardi has us as a 7 seed against Oklahoma with the winner playing LSU. This would be ideal if we do end up a 7 seed. With the potential to play a 2 seed going through that kind of turmoil, I'll take that any day.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Lunardi has us as a 7 seed against Oklahoma with the winner playing LSU. This would be ideal if we do end up a 7 seed. With the potential to play a 2 seed going through that kind of turmoil, I'll take that any day.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
My lord I would love to get matched with LSU, I’d almost guarantee a win.
With our seeding competition doing very well, I think a 6 seed is now only possible if we win the AAC tourney. Even if we do we might still get a 7.
If we beat Houston we would definitely move into a 6 seed
If Auburn, Villanova and Iowa St win their conference tournaments, we would say the same about them. That's the problem - the 6 seeds are making it really tough to pass them. Now that we play Wichita instead of Temple, our only Q1 opportunity would be the final. I'm not saying a 6 seed is unlikely if we beat Houston, only that it's far from certain. Only one way to find out though.If we beat Houston we would definitely move into a 6 seed
March 16 bracketology update per Dave Ommen (Q1,Q2,Q3/4 loss)
6 Iowa St (7-7,3-4,0)
6 Maryland (6-8,6-1,1)
6 Auburn (3-7,12-2,0)
6 Cincinnati (4-4,7-1,1)
7 Nevada (1-1,7-1,2)
7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
7 Wofford (3-4,6-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-11,5-1,1)
Still clinging to a 6 seed. Nevada fell from a 5 all the way to a 7 with their loss. Wofford seems underseeded to me. Their resume looks better than most of the 6 seeds to my eye.
6 Iowa St (7-7,3-4,0)
6 Maryland (6-8,6-1,1)
6 Auburn (3-7,12-2,0)
6 Cincinnati (4-4,7-1,1)
7 Nevada (1-1,7-1,2)
7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
7 Wofford (3-4,6-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-11,5-1,1)
Still clinging to a 6 seed. Nevada fell from a 5 all the way to a 7 with their loss. Wofford seems underseeded to me. Their resume looks better than most of the 6 seeds to my eye.
There have been so many bid stealers this year that a few more would force a 10 seed matchup in the First Four. San Diego St, Bowling Green, Oregon, and possibly Grand Canyon, Memphis or Wichita St could make that happen. I assume they are still abiding by the rule that conference champs cannot be in a play-in game (other than the 16 seeds). So we could potentially play the winner of a First Four game whether we are a 6 or a 7.
Fascinated to see where we're seeded compared to the below teams, if we beat Wich St, and lose to Houston. We would have 12 Q1/Q2 wins, one poor loss. How does the committee treat that compared to:
Marquette - lower NET, more Q1/Q2 wins, but lost 5 of last 6.
Nevada - slightly higher NET, less Q1/Q2 wins, 2 Q3 losses so equal treatment for losses. If you look at their average NET rankings in wins and losses, Cincy is far superior - their average win is over 154, and losses to 112, while Cincy wins average to 138 and losses to 62
Buffalo - excellent record, but only 7 total Q1/Q2 wins, with a Q3 loss.
Iowa State - definitely an excellent team, with tons of Q1/Q2 wins, but 10-11 total between the the two quadrants, no bad losses.
If we get seeded higher than any of the above, I feel like it would be because we're a 6.
Marquette - lower NET, more Q1/Q2 wins, but lost 5 of last 6.
Nevada - slightly higher NET, less Q1/Q2 wins, 2 Q3 losses so equal treatment for losses. If you look at their average NET rankings in wins and losses, Cincy is far superior - their average win is over 154, and losses to 112, while Cincy wins average to 138 and losses to 62
Buffalo - excellent record, but only 7 total Q1/Q2 wins, with a Q3 loss.
Iowa State - definitely an excellent team, with tons of Q1/Q2 wins, but 10-11 total between the the two quadrants, no bad losses.
If we get seeded higher than any of the above, I feel like it would be because we're a 6.