Cincinnati @ Louisville

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bearcat jeff

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Well it's finally here! Both teams come in on a roll with both overcoming personnel and roster issues.

Louisville is now using Luke Hancock at the 4 and since the move their offense has taken off. They shoot nearly 38% from the three point line and get to the ft line at a high rate. With 5 players averaging double figures, the Bearcat defense better come ready to play.

Guys like Kevin Johnson and Jermaine Sanders will be huge off the bench. Troy Caupain needs to hold serve against Terry Rozier and GG has to keep Chris Jones in check. The SK/Russ Smith match up will be huge and probably the one on the perimeter most people watch. Smith averages 18 ppg but also over 4 apg.

Inside, outside of guard penetration, Montrezl Harrell is the man. At 6'8" and 235 lbs, with loads of athleticism he is a match up nightmare if Justin Jackson isn't available. If JJ can't go Titus Rubles will likely get the call. Harrell averages 12 ppg and 8.5 rebounds and just 2.2 fouls. He makes 62% of his shots because most of them are dunks. He, like Jackson, does not shoot well from the ft line. Well over half his rebounds are of the offensive variety so it is imperative to box him out when Louisville drives to the basket.

To me this game will come down to 4 things. Turnovers (Russ Smith is prone to turn the ball over), Limiting Louisville from 3 and the ft line, not allowing offensive rebounds, and not letting Luke Hancock to go off.

Whoever guards Hancock (Rubles or Sanders) cannot allow him to get free. The Louisville offense goes to a whole new dimension when he is scoring at will.

On offense UC can't turn the ball over and allow Louisville to run out for easy points. If they do it could turn into a blowout. They need 2 guys beside SK to score double figures and the bench needs to produce.

Thomas again will be an X factor. His length and athleticism make him a match up problem for Louisville. Caupain and Sanders need to be productive off the bench and Kevin Johnson needs to lock down on defense.

Overall I think these teams match up well. The game will come down to a couple things and I think it will be a battle. Frankly, I think the team with less turnovers, who makes their ft's and gets bench scoring will win. No way in my opinion JJ doesn't play. How effective can he be? It's always a tough task to win at the Yum. I have to give Louisville the edge but with both teams having key people gone I think UC matches up very well. It will all come down to execution.
 
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I have to go with Louisville to win this one. However, I did not believe UC would win at Memphis.
 
Well it's finally here! Both teams come in on a roll with both overcoming personnel and roster issues.

Louisville is now using Luke Hancock at the 4 and since the move their offense has taken off. They shoot nearly 38% from the three point line and get to the ft line at a high rate. With 5 players averaging double figures, the Bearcat defense better come ready to play.

Guys like Kevin Johnson and Jermaine Sanders will be huge off the bench. Troy Caupain needs to hold serve against Terry Rozier and GG has to keep Chris Jones in check. The SK/Russ Smith match up will be huge and probably the one on the perimeter most people watch. Smith averages 18 ppg but also over 4 apg.

Inside, outside of guard penetration, Montrezl Harrell is the man. At 6'8" and 235 lbs, with loads of athleticism he is a match up nightmare if Justin Jackson isn't available. If JJ can't go Titus Rubles will likely get the call. Harrell averages 12 ppg and 8.5 rebounds and just 2.2 fouls. He makes 62% of his shots because most of them are dunks. He, like Jackson, does not shoot well from the ft line. Well over half his rebounds are of the offensive variety so it is imperative to box him out when Louisville drives to the basket.

To me this game will come down to 4 things. Turnovers (Russ Smith is prone to turn the ball over), Limiting Louisville from 3 and the ft line, not allowing offensive rebounds, and not letting Luke Hancock to go off.

Whoever guards Hancock (Rubles or Sanders) cannot allow him to get free. The Louisville offense goes to a whole new dimension when he is scoring at will.

On offense UC can't turn the ball over and allow Louisville to run out for easy points. If they do it could turn into a blowout. They need 2 guys beside SK to score double figures and the bench needs to produce.

Thomas again will be an X factor. His length and athleticism make him a match up problem for Louisville. Caupain and Sanders need to be productive off the bench and Kevin Johnson needs to lock down on defense.

Overall I think these teams match up well. The game will come down to a couple things and I think it will be a battle. Frankly, I think the team with less turnovers, who mkes their ft's and gets bench scoring will win. No way in my opinion JJ doesn't play. How effective can he be? It's always a tough task to win at the Yum. I have to give Louisville the edge but with both teams having key people gone I think UC matches up very well. It will all come down to execution.
Jeff, enjoyed your take analysis but have to add a few things.

1. Can't allow Louisville to dictate tempo. They will try to press us to speed up the game. We can't win a running game with Louisville.

2. The reason they are such a good offensive rebounding team is because teams are forced to play help defense because of the penetration. This makes boxing out very difficult. Its also why they get to the FT line so often.Our perimeter defenders need to limit drives to the hoop.

3. Hopefully this will be a ugly BE style of game.

4. I hope your right about JJ. This could be a beat down without him
 
With JJ:
UL 68, UC 60

Without JJ:
UL 76, UC 56

I'm predicting a loss regardless, but that doesn't mean I don't think it'll be a great game, and I wouldn't be too shocked to see UC pull it out. But we NEED Jackson to truly compete. Without him, I think we're down 5 minutes in and UL never looks back.
 
Jeff, enjoyed your take analysis but have to add a few things.

1. Can't allow Louisville to dictate tempo. They will try to press us to speed up the game. We can't win a running game with Louisville.

2. The reason they are such a good offensive rebounding team is because teams are forced to play help defense because of the penetration. This makes boxing out very difficult. Its also why they get to the FT line so often.Our perimeter defenders need to limit drives to the hoop.

3. Hopefully this will be a ugly BE style of game.

4. I hope your right about JJ. This could be a beat down without him

If Behanan were there I'd agree 100%. With the line up UL is currently playing I think UC can still compete. What JJ gives you is that guy who can swat shots at the rim if the guards get by the perimeter D. Oddly enough, David Nyarsuk could be very valuable in this game. It wouldn't bother me if JJ's ankle is still soft to see him come off the bench.
 
Jackson (if he goes) vs Harrell

Smith vs Kilpatrick

Rozier vs Caupain

Hancock/Blackshear vs Thomas/Sanders


UC has to win the above match-ups to win the game. I will reserve my prediction until we know if Jackson is going to go or not.
 
Have we heard anything regarding Lawrence's status for Thursday? I realize it's early in the week, but he could be the advantage we need.
 
Jackson (if he goes) vs Harrell

Smith vs Kilpatrick

Rozier vs Caupain

Hancock/Blackshear vs Thomas/Sanders


UC has to win the above match-ups to win the game. I will reserve my prediction until we know if Jackson is going to go or not.

Agreed. Got to break even there or win 3 of 4 to have a shot. I too will make a prediction on Thursday.
 
Weather its a low scoring battle like Pit, a great all around game like at Memphis, or its a shootout like at temple this team finds ways to win. This team is motivated to prove they are a top ten team. We come out firing and win this game
 
Jeff, enjoyed your take analysis but have to add a few things.

1. Can't allow Louisville to dictate tempo. They will try to press us to speed up the game. We can't win a running game with Louisville.

2. The reason they are such a good offensive rebounding team is because teams are forced to play help defense because of the penetration. This makes boxing out very difficult. Its also why they get to the FT line so often.Our perimeter defenders need to limit drives to the hoop.

3. Hopefully this will be a ugly BE style of game.

4. I hope your right about JJ. This could be a beat down without him

I was thinking about your #3 point also. Because of how familiar each coach is with the other it's hard to imagine either team is going to be surprised by the other. A game similar to Pitt earlier this season might occur - which could be in our favor.

I could see Pitino mixing in some 2-3 zone which has caused the Cats more of a struggle versus man to man. I would love to see SK, TC, and KJ driving to the rim and getting L'ville in foul trouble. ST could be a big factor, has the that free throw line and and in pull up jumper that makes him hard to stop if it's falling.
 
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Turnovers and offensive rebounding will be the key to the game, IMO. Last year Rubles had 8 turnovers by himself, and I think he will be asked to help alleviate UL's pressure defense again this year. If we can limit our turnovers, and not give them easy buckets, then we can stay with them. Keeping Harrell off the offensive glass is also a must. If JJ can go I will feel much better, but he certainly won't be 100%. I am expecting a Louisville win, but I didn't think the Cats would win at Memphis, either. If it is a grind it out affair and close at the end, I like our chances with the senior leadership we have.
 
I would really prefer to just sit Jj out this game and let him rest, he's suffered multiple injuries where hes been sent to the locker room, I think we could beat u of L with Jackson, but not with a Jackson that's playing at 70%, this game really doesn't mean much when you put the NCAA tourney in perspective, I would rather be healthy for the big dance, and not have lingering injuries throughout the rest of the season with a short bench at the big man position.
 
I would really prefer to just sit Jj out this game and let him rest, he's suffered multiple injuries where hes been sent to the locker room, I think we could beat u of L with Jackson, but not with a Jackson that's playing at 70%, this game really doesn't mean much when you put the NCAA tourney in perspective, I would rather be healthy for the big dance, and not have lingering injuries throughout the rest of the season with a short bench at the big man position.
I'm sure MC will only play him if he is healthy. JJ wanted to go back in Sunday but MC told him only way he would play if he wasn't coaching. MC understands what is at stake but he will not risk the player.
 
I'm sure MC will only play him if he is healthy. JJ wanted to go back in Sunday but MC told him only way he would play if he wasn't coaching. MC understands what is at stake but he will not risk the player.

That is truly one aspect I respect about Mick Cronin. He truly, truly is about
players best interest first.
 
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Heard Mick on Cunninghams show when I was driving earlier today and he was saying they only have 8 scholarship players practicing right now. Said hoping for an healers out there to get Jackson's ankle better. He could be playing possum, who knows...
 
Heard Mick on Cunninghams show when I was driving earlier today and he was saying they only have 8 scholarship players practicing right now. Said hoping for an healers out there to get Jackson's ankle better. He could be playing possum, who knows...

Just another example that it really really stinks that Jamaree can't even practice. Don't understand how he can be on scholarship and not be able to do anything with team or coaches.
 
Jacksons a warrior if he can go he will be out there. He will play through pain. We went here last year and didn't play well we remember that. This a huge game for us and nationally, #13 at #12, time for uc to show how good they are
 
Well at least we know this for the return game...

Cincinnati Bearcats ‏@GoBEARCATS 5m
UC vs. Louisville on 2/22 is officially SOLD OUT! #Bearcats
 
Jackson missed the Louisville game last year. This is a rather beat up team right now. Wonder if Parker has broke out his gym shorts to help in practice?
 
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