Conference Predictions

[Scheids21]

The team is still growing but we have a better view of who we are now.

Most computers have us finishing 12-6 and that sounds about right. I think this team is good enough to get an upset or two at home against Louisville, Memphis, and UCONN but I also expect us to drop a couple road games against middle tier teams like SMU, temple, and Houston.

 

[BearcatMick]

Two conference losses.

Don't think we lose more than 2 barring injury

 

[Bearcatboy]

Two conference losses.

Don't think we lose more than 2 barring injury

I hope your right but think your off this team is good but not that good, 6 loses for me.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

I will say between 11 and 13 wins. Anything more and I'll be very happy and anything less I'll be disappointed.

 

[Not Guilty]

Ken Pomeroy ran 10,000 simulations for who would win each conference on his blog. Here are the results:

29. AAC

The pick: Louisville. I’m not sure how much Chane Behanan’s dismissal affects these numbers. He was effective when he played, but he wasn’t playing as much as last season. Pitino has rarely played small this season, so it figures that Mangok Mathiang will be asked to do more. Draw your own conclusions.

The contrarian pick: Memphis. It’s either the Tigers or UConn for this honor, and the computer says Memphis is looking more like the second-best team, which I’m not sure agrees with the general consensus. I’m never good about gauging that kind of thing.

Louisville 7239
Memphis 1474
Connecticut 579
Cincinnati 467
SMU 227
Temple 12
UCF 1

And here are the projected standings at the end of the year after every team has played one conference game:

UofL: 16-2
Mem: 13-5
UC: 12-6
UConn: 10-8
SMU: 10-8
Temple: 7-11
UCF: 6-12
USF: 5-13
Houston: 5-13
Rutgers: 5-13

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Ken Pomeroy ran 10,000 simulations for who would win each conference on his blog. Here are the results:

29. AAC

The pick: Louisville. I’m not sure how much Chane Behanan’s dismissal affects these numbers. He was effective when he played, but he wasn’t playing as much as last season. Pitino has rarely played small this season, so it figures that Mangok Mathiang will be asked to do more. Draw your own conclusions.

The contrarian pick: Memphis. It’s either the Tigers or UConn for this honor, and the computer says Memphis is looking more like the second-best team, which I’m not sure agrees with the general consensus. I’m never good about gauging that kind of thing.

Louisville 7239
Memphis 1474
Connecticut 579
Cincinnati 467
SMU 227
Temple 12
UCF 1

And here are the projected standings at the end of the year after every team has played one conference game:

UofL: 16-2
Mem: 13-5
UC: 12-6
UConn: 10-8
SMU: 10-8
Temple: 7-11
UCF: 6-12
USF: 5-13
Houston: 5-13
Rutgers: 5-13

I typically am a numbers guy but Louisville is currently #1 in KenPom which is probably why they won over 70% of the simulations. However, I don't think they are that good. They could easily still win the league but I don't see it being by 3 games like he projects. I actually would pick Memphis to win the AAC at the moment.

 

[TheLongHaul]

Two conference losses.

Don't think we lose more than 2 barring injury

it's on record! BearcatMick actually predicted UC to lose a game.

 

[Not Guilty]

I typically am a numbers guy but Louisville is currently #1 in KenPom which is probably why they won over 70% of the simulations. However, I don't think they are that good. They could easily still win the league but I don't see it being by 3 games like he projects. I actually would pick Memphis to win the AAC at the moment.

Based on what I've read recently, you don't learn nearly as much from teams when they play lesser competition as you do when they play solid to good competition. And while Louisville has actually played a schedule that rates as more difficult than UC's, they have only played 4 games against top 100 teams and lost to the 2 name brands (their 2 wins were beat downs though).

So maybe they aren't the best team in the country. But I think its fair to say that they are the best team in the conference. And since every team plays each other twice, I'd say they are the clear favorite (but that doesn't mean they would win the conference 72% of the time).

 

[Bearcat22]

UConn loses for the second time in a row going down to SMU.

 

[bearcat jeff]

By seasons end SMU will be a solid win as will todays.?

 

[Robert]

Louisville looks like the best team in the conference to me. Cincy, UConn, and Memphis are fairly even with SMU close behind. The next 5 teams are waaaaaay behind. I would be shocked if the top 5 teams lose more than 5 games total against the bottom 5.

I think the top 5 all finish with at least 11 wins and everyone else finishes below .500. Louisville will likely win the regular season, but with no more than 15 wins.

 

[waterhead]

I still don't know what to predict after what I saw today and what we saw against X. With the recent trend I am leaning toward bigger things. I think we are definitely top 25 right now...and maybe/probably better.

 

[Robert]

We have 6 games left against the good teams in the league. My gut tells me we split those and lay a stinker against one of the lesser teams, leaving us at 14-4 in the AAC and 25-6 overall. If that happens, we get about a 4-seed in the tournament as long as we don't get upset early in the conference tournament.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Toughest games remaining are 2x Louisville, 2x UConn, @SMU and Memphis. Any other road game also could be a potential loss.

 

[waterhead]

We have 6 games left against the good teams in the league. My gut tells me we split those and lay a stinker against one of the lesser teams, leaving us at 14-4 in the AAC and 25-6 overall. If that happens, we get about a 4-seed in the tournament as long as we don't get upset early in the conference tournament.

This is the type of prediction I am dreaming of but don't have the nuts to predict just yet.

 

[BearcatMick]

We got the win at memphis. I think we lose at Loserville and at some random team like SMU.

Win the rest.

2 conference losses…

 

[Robert]

This is the type of prediction I am dreaming of but don't have the nuts to predict just yet.

I'm usually conservative with my predictions as well, but I'm going to go out on a limb this time. When I compare what we've done so far this season compared to what we did at this point the past 3 seasons, I am very optimistic.

 

[Robert]

We got the win at memphis. I think we lose at Loserville and at some random team like SMU.

Win the rest.

2 conference losses…

I consider SMU to be more than just some random team. They just beat UConn and are a legitimate NCAA at-large contender. If we lose our return date in Dallas, I won't be shocked... although I do believe we will win that game.

 

[waterhead]

Based on what I've read recently, you don't learn nearly as much from teams when they play lesser competition as you do when they play solid to good competition. And while Louisville has actually played a schedule that rates as more difficult than UC's, they have only played 4 games against top 100 teams and lost to the 2 name brands (their 2 wins were beat downs though).

So maybe they aren't the best team in the country. But I think its fair to say that they are the best team in the conference. And since every team plays each other twice, I'd say they are the clear favorite (but that doesn't mean they would win the conference 72% of the time).

It's really tough to say this early, even with the win, what we can do. We lost to X by 20 and then beat a top 20 team on the road by 16. Certainly we should look to recent play as a guideline rather than early season play.

We have played so well in the last 6 games that I'm still not sure just how to evaluate our team. My heart says we are top 10 but my head keeps saying remember Xavier.

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

It's really tough to say this early, even with the win, what we can do. We lost to X by 20 and then beat a top 20 team on the road by 16. Certainly we should look to recent play as a guideline rather than early season play.

We have played so well in the last 6 games that I'm still not sure just how to evaluate our team. My heart says we are top 10 but my head keeps saying remember Xavier.

as hard as it is for me to say,you may want to consider X is not a bad team. Since beating us they have played very well.