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You might be right. I haven't really had a chance to watch USF play all year...What are their strengths?

They are the slowest tempo team in the BE by a good margin. On offense, they throw the ball into Gilchrist inside a ton. He's a good player, but he is a 40% FG guy that takes way too many shots for me. I don't believe they're going to have their way inside on Gates in the half court offense. Can they win by holding us to <50 points like they have some other BE teams? Not sure, but we have "shown up" for a good percentage of our road games so I don't think we will be put to sleep.

Obviously, I'm going to 5/3 tonight fired up hoping for a win. My comment was hardly meant to write off tonight as an L. Toss up game tonight IMO and it will be exciting.
 
You might be right. I haven't really had a chance to watch USF play all year...What are their strengths?

They play a slow down style, averaging 60 possessions in BE play. For perspective ND has 59 a game and is the slowest in the BE. The next slowest is 63 possessions, so thats a massive difference (league av is 65, and UC's av is 65) so transition points are also hard to come by. They also defend pretty well as a team and are solid on the glass. They just held cuse to <35%FG, and a similarly poor eFG%. Their ppp #s are legit too, giving up only 0.97 ppp in BE play, which is really solid and around 5th in the league, but by no means are they the best defensive team in the BE which a lot of announcers allude to bc they hold teams to the lowest ppg average.


Their biggest problem is they struggle to score the basketball, but its not near as bad as what they showed against the Cuse last night where they went ~11 minutes w/o scoring. They're just slightly below league av scoring 1.01 ppp (av is 1.02).

Players wise, Gilchrist is the most talented, but they're just a really balanced team without any true stars. Only one guy averages double figures for them, (although their ppg #s will always be lower bc they get fewer possessions per game than everyone else) and they have a bunch of guys that crash the glass hard. Theyre also a lot better at home than they have been on the road this year, despite not getting to play in their regular arena.
 
You might be right. I haven't really had a chance to watch USF play all year...What are their strengths?

They seem to control the tempo well, like a poor man's Wisconsin. They have very balanced scoring with 6 players between 7.6 and 10.3 PPG.

Weaknesses are they have trouble scoring and don't rebound the ball well. They are not very big and commit 14 TOs per game. They don't shoot well from 3 (32.1%) as a team but have two very good shooters in Fitzpatrick (43.2% in 26 mpg) and Noriega (37% in 13 mpg).
 
They play a slow down style, averaging 60 possessions in BE play. For perspective ND has 59 a game and is the slowest in the BE. The next slowest is 63 possessions, so thats a massive difference (league av is 65, and UC's av is 65) so transition points are also hard to come by. They also defend pretty well as a team and are solid on the glass. They just held cuse to <35%FG, and a similarly poor eFG%. Their ppp #s are legit too, giving up only 0.97 ppp in BE play, which is really solid and around 5th in the league, but by no means are they the best defensive team in the BE which a lot of announcers allude to bc they hold teams to the lowest ppg average.


Their biggest problem is they struggle to score the basketball, but its not near as bad as what they showed against the Cuse last night where they went ~11 minutes w/o scoring. They're just slightly below league av scoring 1.01 ppp (av is 1.02).

Players wise, Gilchrist is the most talented, but they're just a really balanced team without any true stars. Only one guy averages double figures for them, (although their ppg #s will always be lower bc they get fewer possessions per game than everyone else) and they have a bunch of guys that crash the glass hard. Theyre also a lot better at home than they have been on the road this year, despite not getting to play in their regular arena.

I disagree with the rebounding. They are about as good at rebounding the basketball as UC and I think UC is below average this year. USF offensively rebounds 35% of their misses which ranks 90th in the country. Defensively USF rebounds 68.5% of their opportunities which ranks 152nd in the country. By comparison UC rebounds offensive misses at 36.6% (38th nationally) and defensively at 65.9% (258th).

UC has a considerable advantage in taking care of the ball. UC turns the ball over 10.9 times pergame which is good for t-13 nationally. USF by comparison turns the ball over13.9 times per game (178th). When you factor in pace of play, it is even a bigger discrepancy. USF turns the ball over on 22.6% of their possessions (298th nationally) and UC 16.6% (14th).
 
While S fla's rebd % #s arent great for the whole season, Id like to know what they are for just in BE play. I know their BE sched has been softer than average, but they are not near the same team now that lost to penn state, auburn, and ODU. I know lol sample size, but eye test wise in the games Ive watched they've been a pretty good rebounding team and of recent as well.

This is just their last 4 games

------ORB-----DRB
S fla --33%---79.5%
Cuse--20.5%--66.7%

SFla--41.4%---64.9%
Pitt---35.1%---58.6%

SFla--26.1%---74.4%
nova--25.6%---73.9%

S Fla--38.7%---75.7%
PRov--24.3%---61.3%
 
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While S fla's rebd % #s arent great for the whole season, Id like to know what they are for just in BE play, bc in the games Ive watched they've been a pretty good rebounding team and of late as well.

This is just their last 4 games

------ORB-----DRB
S fla --33%---79.5%
Cuse--20.5%--66.7%

SFla--41.4%---64.9%
Pitt---35.1%---58.6%

SFla--26.1%---74.4%
nova--25.6%---73.9%

S Fla--38.7%---75.7%
PRov--24.3%---61.3%

Those are impressive numbers but they weren't exactly going up against teams that are good rebounding teams. Big East stats would be interesting to see for sure.
 
this game tonight is a must win, I agree with Ralph that people might need to start making NIT ticket reservations if they were to lose
 
this game tonight is a must win, I agree with Ralph that people might need to start making NIT ticket reservations if they were to lose

Disagree. This is not a must win just like Marquette is not a must win. If they lose tonight, Saturday against USF and then against Nova become must wins. This is a win-win tonight. The Bearcats could essentially lock up an NCAA berth with a win tonight and a loss won't crush them.
 
Disagree. This is not a must win just like Marquette is not a must win. If they lose tonight, Saturday against USF and then against Nova become must wins. This is a win-win tonight. The Bearcats could essentially lock up an NCAA berth with a win tonight and a loss won't crush them.

Agreed that it's not a must win. I just worry about the quick 37 hour turnaround for a noon tip at USF if they lose this big, hyped game tonight.
 
Agreed that it's not a must win. I just worry about the quick 37 hour turnaround for a noon tip at USF if they lose this big, hyped game tonight.

Definitely a concern. Also a concern that USF has that extra day to prepare. UC pretty much has that Big Monday turn around (2 days) but this time, the other team isn't at the same disadvantage. That is actually what I am most concerned about. At least the USF game isn't in their HS gym.
 
Disagree. This is not a must win just like Marquette is not a must win. If they lose tonight, Saturday against USF and then against Nova become must wins. This is a win-win tonight. The Bearcats could essentially lock up an NCAA berth with a win tonight and a loss won't crush them.

Well, practically speaking, the first must win game is the first game of the Big East Tourney and every game after that.

However, if UC is going to get in the NCAA Tourney as an at-large, UC must win tonight.
 
Well, practically speaking, the first must win game is the first game of the Big East Tourney and every game after that.

However, if UC is going to get in the NCAA Tourney as an at-large, UC must win tonight.

This is the approach the players should, and seem to, have. This is not the reality though.
 
The Ralph will be looking like Johnny Cash tonight. I hope I do not have those Fulsom Prison blues after the game
 
If UC loses tonight they will turn around and lose to USF as well, that might be enough to send them to the NIT, barring a good Big East tournament run.
 
What a pathetic end to the half.

I understand Mick taking out Cash because he has 2 fouls. That being said, Dixon and Guyn are not equipped to play point guard in a competitive game like this. Dixon can't help the team create a clean shot and Guyn will find a way to turn the ball over.

So we get the ball with about 48 seconds and the team fails to create an open shot and fails to capitalize on a 2-for-1 opportunity - giving Louisville the last shot.

-

UC may be leading at the half, but Louisville has the momentum going into the lockerroom and when ... you know let's just do some math.

UC - Parker = Bad News
UL + Behanen = Bad News (for UC)
Wright, Jackson and Gates in foul trouble = Bad News

Is Gaines really not ready? He might have to play some important minutes tonight.
 
I said It so many times, we can't rebound we don't be UL. This could get ugly if he continue to shoot stupid ass shots.
 
Jackson is playing at another level suddenly. I like the way the intensity has picked up. Got the lead back.
 
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