Mick v. LD, Adjusting for Experience

[LeftyRose]

Some of the criticisms of LD, degrading his coaching style in comparison to Cronin, bothered me. My hunch was that when you adjust for level of experience, this year's performance would grade similarly to earlier teams in Cronin's tenure.

I think the data proves this hypothesis is correct.

To get a rough calculation, I looked at the top-ten contributors for past teams (minutes played) and assigned a numerical value, determined by the number of years in D1 experience. For example, a freshman would score a "1," a sophmore a "2," etc. JUCOs would score a "1" in their Junior year.

As a result, a higher score means more experience. Again, it's a rough measure. Here are the results:

2007-08, Score=16, Record=13-19, No Tournament
2008-09, Score=19, Record=18-14, No Tournament
2009-10, Score=20, Record=19-16, No Tournament
2010-11, Score=26, Record=26-9, Round of 32
2011-12, Score=22, Record=26-11, Sweet Sixteen
2012-13, Score=23, Record=22-12, Round of 64
2013-14, Score=23, Record=27-7, Round of 64
2014-15, Score=18, Record=17-8

As you can see, this team scores the lowest in D1 experience since the team back in 2007-08. Teams in 2008-09 and 2009-10 scored higher in experience and finished with lower winning percentages and no NCAA tournament bids. Arguably, Mick was working with more talent during those years (Gates, Cash, Lance, etc.)

The point is you shouldn't compare LD's performance this year to Cronin's performance the past four years, because those teams were a lot more D1-experienced. You can argue that LD is performing better than Mick did in 2008-09 and 2009-10, when Mick was working with teams that scored higher in experience and perhaps talent.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

My gripes have much more to do with in-game decision making. And that has nothing to do with team experience. That is a very interesting list you've put together though. I can't believe the 09-10 team lost 16 times.

 

[ucswais]

Interesting data. I admit I'm less than impressed so far, but you make some good points here about the youth on this team. Also, our SOS has turned out a lot better than I expected for various reasons which should be a factor in what W-L we're demanding of LD.

 

[HoosierCat]

I agree, it's his in game coaching and sub packaging that is my concern. He lets other teams go on runs without adjusting or stopping the bleeding. The substitutions in the ECU game was mind boggling

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I keep going back to the Houston game when I think about LD. It has nothing to do with him in that game, but the guy on the other sideline. Kelvin Sampson called 3 timeouts in about the first 5 minutes. He didn't care about the timeouts. It had to do with him immediately not liking what he was seeing. And I think he would've called all 5 if his guys didn't get the point. And Houston came back and got in the game and was beating us in our gym at halftime. Now obviously we won the game bc Houston is terrible this year. But I wish LD would take a page from that book. We went down 15-5 @Temple and then went down by double digits 3 other times in the first half. LD did not use a single timeout until he burned the "use it or lose it" right at the end. So we went down 11 at the half...Good thing we still had 4 timeouts left! But too bad the game was already over bc we aren't built for 11 point road comebacks. There are 8 media timeouts in college ball and each team has 5 timeouts. What the hell are you saving them all for? Isn't being down 15-5 to start the game a good time to give your guys a chance to regroup? You gotta make the kids feel like you're fighting for them. And in college that means pulling the team back to their corner when they are getting pummeled. That's the kind of stuff that makes me think that he is in way over his head.

 

[HoosierCat]

Every game I have to remind myself that this team is playing without the guidance of its head coach. But Larry has been a head coach before and I can't believe that we see these things and he doesn't. He says he does and is learning, but sometimes I wonder. I truly think this team has at least 3 less losses if Mick was coaching. But, it is what it is and these kids need to get out of the funk and they need to do it tonight!

 

[jacobkdoyle]

Another thing that bothers me is what he said in his comments to the media yesterday...something along the lines of "I don't need anyone trying to be a hero and going for 30". I get the gist of what he is saying bc he was saying he needs soldiers...but c'mon man. A guy scoring 30 is the FIRST example you use for something we don't need? Can you imagine Huggins telling Logan that? Or Mick telling SK that? That is the best inadvertant explanation I've heard as to why Cobb was pulled against ECU. He was trying to be a hero! Again, I get what he's saying...but God forbid a guy for us gets hot and carries the scoring load...especially in a rivalry game. I can't stand it. This is the only program in the world where going off on the offensive end is frowned upon. Let the kids play the game! I can live with Cobb or Caupain being a "hero" much more than I can live with putting a lid on these guys and making them feel like they don't have the freedom to find their game.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

I keep going back to the Houston game when I think about LD. It has nothing to do with him in that game, but the guy on the other sideline. Kelvin Sampson called 3 timeouts in about the first 5 minutes. He didn't care about the timeouts. It had to do with him immediately not liking what he was seeing. And I think he would've called all 5 if his guys didn't get the point. And Houston came back and got in the game and was beating us in our gym at halftime. Now obviously we won the game bc Houston is terrible this year. But I wish LD would take a page from that book. We went down 15-5 @Temple and then went down by double digits 3 other times in the first half. LD did not use a single timeout until he burned the "use it or lose it" right at the end. So we went down 11 at the half...Good thing we still had 4 timeouts left! But too bad the game was already over bc we aren't built for 11 point road comebacks. There are 8 media timeouts in college ball and each team has 5 timeouts. What the hell are you saving them all for? Isn't being down 15-5 to start the game a good time to give your guys a chance to regroup? You gotta make the kids feel like you're fighting for them. And in college that means pulling the team back to their corner when they are getting pummeled. That's the kind of stuff that makes me think that he is in way over his head.

I noticed the timeouts by Sampson as well. I think part of his strategy of calling the first timeout of each half is that the first timeout is always a full timeout, no 30 second, due to TV.

 

[cincrulz11]

I can't believe the 09-10 team lost 16 times.

It lost 14 times in the regular season and 11 of them were in conference.

 

[Bulldog01]

Another thing that bothers me is what he said in his comments to the media yesterday...something along the lines of "I don't need anyone trying to be a hero and going for 30". I get the gist of what he is saying bc he was saying he needs soldiers...but c'mon man. A guy scoring 30 is the FIRST example you use for something we don't need? Can you imagine Huggins telling Logan that? Or Mick telling SK that? That is the best inadvertant explanation I've heard as to why Cobb was pulled against ECU. He was trying to be a hero! Again, I get what he's saying...but God forbid a guy for us gets hot and carries the scoring load...especially in a rivalry game. I can't stand it. This is the only program in the world where going off on the offensive end is frowned upon. Let the kids play the game! I can live with Cobb or Caupain being a "hero" much more than I can live with putting a lid on these guys and making them feel like they don't have the freedom to find their game.

Xavier's tough to defend. They've got a lot of scorers, a lot of shooters. They're probably the highest scoring team we've played since NC State, other than SMU. That being said, I think they have more firepower than SMU ... We're not going to be able to win if we don't score. It's going to be tough to defend them, because we're not going to completely shut them out."

looks like Mick and LD have different views on scoring.

 

[bearcat jeff]

My issue with LD is his in game adjustments and game management in general. I think his sub patterns cost the team the game at ECU by sapping all momentum away and against USF and Tulane he seemed determined to get guys playing time rather than winning the game. He is taking on a role he hasn't been in for a long time and never at this level of play so I know he is adjusting. He has to manage the game and emotion tonight.

 

[cincrulz11]

I think his sub patterns cost the team the game at ECU

Cost us the first Uconn game as well going with DeBerry, Moore, Morman (I think maybe shaq came in for morman in there somewhere) from around 9 minutes until around 5 minutes (with a media timeout at the 7 minute mark). Also didn't play Caupain and Cobb together hardly at all.



I think Mick may have talked to him after that game cause it's been a bit better.

 

[LeftyRose]

I'm not an LD apologist, I just think there's an over-inflation of Mick on this board. Mick started Guyn for an entire year over Caupain. No way was that even close to being justified by the advanced metrics.

If you go back to 2008-09, which was a similar year in terms of experience, you get similar head scratchers: They finished the season with losses to South Florida (9-22 record), @home to Seton Hall (17-15 record), and in the conference tourney to Depaul (9-24 record and winless in conference). And, that team had two five-star top-25 recruits (Mike Williams and Gates), as well as a returning All Big East player (Vaughn).

This team is very young and has zero top-75 recruits. The fact that we swept SMU and won @NCState is more surprising than losing on the road in-conference (to a team that also beat Memphis), as well as losing on a 30+ foot prayer. I mean they shot 3-29 from three in those two games.

I guess I am in the minority here and respect all of your opinions.

 

[bearcat jeff]

What I know is in spite of all you say UC is one of a handful of schools that have made four straight trips to the NCAA. Metrics don't take into account a coaches philosophy and that dictates who you play and why. I agree that some paint Mick to highly but some give him no credit. In spite of a lot of limitations he wins and that's the bottom line.

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I'm not an LD apologist, I just think there's an over-inflation of Mick on this board. Mick started Guyn for an entire year over Caupain. No way was that even close to being justified by the advanced metrics.

If you go back to 2008-09, which was a similar year in terms of experience, you get similar head scratchers: They finished the season with losses to South Florida (9-22 record), @home to Seton Hall (17-15 record), and in the conference tourney to Depaul (9-24 record and winless in conference). And, that team had two five-star top-25 recruits (Mike Williams and Gates), as well as a returning All Big East player (Vaughn).

This team is very young and has zero top-75 recruits. The fact that we swept SMU and won @NCState is more surprising than losing on the road in-conference (to a team that also beat Memphis), as well as losing on a 30+ foot prayer. I mean they shot 3-29 from three in those two games.

I guess I am in the minority here and respect all of your opinions.

I can see where you're coming from in a bigger picture perspective. And I'm not going to act like I can guarantee that we'd be sitting at 20-5 with Mick on the sideline. But when I look at LD's coaching style standing by itself, I'm just not that impressed.

 

[Bulldog01]

What I know is in spite of all you say UC is one of a handful of schools that have made four straight trips to the NCAA. Metrics don't take into account a coaches philosophy and that dictates who you play and why. I agree that some paint Mick to highly but some give him no credit. In spite of a lot of limitations he wins and that's the bottom line.

depends on what you call winning. I'll sweet 16, elite 8, first rd exit, missing tournament than going for straight years not getting out first weekend

 

[Bulldog01]

I can see where you're coming from in a bigger picture perspective. And I'm not going to act like I can guarantee that we'd be sitting at 20-5 with Mick on the sideline. But when I look at LD's coaching style standing by itself, I'm just not that impressed.

Mick is one of best coaches in America in defensive game planning and adjustments. No way coach of his caliber ever lose to Tulane or ECU.

 

[Bcatfollower]

What I know is in spite of all you say UC is one of a handful of schools that have made four straight trips to the NCAA. Metrics don't take into account a coaches philosophy and that dictates who you play and why. I agree that some paint Mick to highly but some give him no credit. In spite of a lot of limitations he wins and that's the bottom line.

By handful do you mean 16 schools that have made at least 4 consecutive ncaa tourneys with most of those being more than 4... and nine more schools that are currently at 3 consecutive appearances looking for their 4th. I mean...

 

[JackBauer151]

By handful do you mean 16 schools that have made at least 4 consecutive ncaa tourneys with most of those being more than 4... and nine more schools that are currently at 3 consecutive appearances looking for their 4th. I mean...

There are 351 D-1 schools....I mean....

 

[jacobkdoyle]

I think age is another thing that can be taken into account. LD was a head coach in the past for longer than Mick has been here. And he is almost 60 right? In the beginning, Mick was what? Around 35? I think Mick has undoubtedly grown as a coach throughout his time here.