NTS-ology

[Bearcat_NTS]

Haven't posted it publicly, but here is my projections coming into today's games. This is completely metric based with some of my own discretion at obvious points.

1 SEEDS:
Kansas
Virginia
Villanova
Michigan State

2 SEEDS:
North Carolina
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Oregon

3 SEEDS:
Kentucky
Miami-FL
Xavier
Purdue

4 SEEDS:
Utah
Indiana
Iowa State
California

5 SEEDS:
Maryland
Texas A&M
Arizona
Duke


6 SEEDS:
Iowa
Baylor
Seton Hall
Texas


7 SEEDS:
Wisconsin
Wichita State
Connecticut
Notre Dame


8 SEEDS:
St. Joesph's
VCU
San Diego State
Dayton

9 SEEDS:
Gonzaga
St. Mary's
Cincinnati
Texas Tech

10 SEEDS:
Yale
Providence
Vanderbilt
Colorado


11 SEEDS:
Valporaiso
Colorado
Butler/Michigan
Pittsburgh/USC


12 SEEDS:
Oregon State
Little Rock
Stephen F. Austin
Akron


13 SEEDS:
South Dakota State
UNC-Wilmington
Northern Iowa
Hawaii


14 SEEDS:
Iona
Stony Brook
Chattanooga
Middle Tennessee

15 SEEDS:
New Mexico State
Green Bay
Weber State
UNC-Asheville


16 SEEDS:
Florida Gulf Coast
Hampton
Austin Peay
Southern
Faireligh Dickinson
Holy Cross

Last 4 in: USC, Butler, Pittsburgh, Michigan
First 4 out: Florida, South Carolina, Syracuse, Princeton
Next 4 out: St. Bonnies, Tulsa, Monmouth, Georgia

 

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Haven't posted it publicly, but here is my projections coming into today's games. This is completely metric based with some of my own discretion at obvious points.

1 SEEDS:
Kansas
Virginia
Villanova
Michigan State

2 SEEDS:
North Carolina
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Oregon

3 SEEDS:
Kentucky
Miami-FL
Xavier
Purdue

4 SEEDS:
Utah
Indiana
Iowa State
California

5 SEEDS:
Maryland
Texas A&M
Arizona
Duke


6 SEEDS:
Iowa
Baylor
Seton Hall
Texas


7 SEEDS:
Wisconsin
Wichita State
Connecticut
Notre Dame


8 SEEDS:
St. Joesph's
VCU
San Diego State
Dayton

9 SEEDS:
Gonzaga
St. Mary's
Cincinnati
Texas Tech

10 SEEDS:
Yale
Providence
Vanderbilt
Colorado


11 SEEDS:
Valporaiso
Colorado
Butler/Michigan
Pittsburgh/USC


12 SEEDS:
Oregon State
Little Rock
Stephen F. Austin
Akron


13 SEEDS:
South Dakota State
UNC-Wilmington
Northern Iowa
Hawaii


14 SEEDS:
Iona
Stony Brook
Chattanooga
Middle Tennessee

15 SEEDS:
New Mexico State
Green Bay
Weber State
UNC-Asheville


16 SEEDS:
Florida Gulf Coast
Hampton
Austin Peay
Southern
Faireligh Dickinson
Holy Cross

Last 4 in: USC, Butler, Pittsburgh, Michigan
First 4 out: Florida, South Carolina, Syracuse, Princeton
Next 4 out: St. Bonnies, Tulsa, Monmouth, Georgia

very good job!!! Thanks NTS

 

[jacobkdoyle]

What happens to SDSU?

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

What happens to SDSU?

They are a 10 seed and falling (those teams seeded 8-11 are so closely bunched). I'll have an update tomorrow when all the metrics are updated. BPI only updates once a day.

 

[mdchick]

They are a 10 seed and falling (those teams seeded 8-11 are so closely bunched). I'll have an update tomorrow when all the metrics are updated. BPI only updates once a day.

They have 1 top 50 win and 3 top 100 wins, I don't know any other at large that has only 3 top 100 wins

 

[ConnecticutHoops]

Valpo & Vanderbilt

Do you think both really get in? Vanderbilt was the quintessential underachiever this year. If they ever did get in they could make a run. Jones and Baldwin are both projected top 20 picks in the 2016 draft. Kornet is also a pro (2017). I don't think they deserve it so I am anxious to see what happens with them. As for Valpo I think they have a legit case to get in. I watched them a lot this year and they are very good. Their defensive metrics are top 10 I believe. Valpo was without T. Walker in the Horizon tourney. They also had to play their tournament on a neutral site unlike SB and Fla Gulf Coast other mid major champs. It should be a fun day! Good luck to the BearCats.

What is your reason for the Valpo and Vanderbilt inclusion?

Good post!

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

They have 1 top 50 win and 3 top 100 wins, I don't know any other at large that has only 3 top 100 wins

Very unlikely they make the actual tournament. Mine is purely metric based and I don't look at other bracket projections.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Do you think both really get in? Vanderbilt was the quintessential underachiever this year. If they ever did get in they could make a run. Jones and Baldwin are both projected top 20 picks in the 2016 draft. Kornet is also a pro (2017). I don't think they deserve it so I am anxious to see what happens with them. As for Valpo I think they have a legit case to get in. I watched them a lot this year and they are very good. Their defensive metrics are top 10 I believe. Valpo was without T. Walker in the Horizon tourney. They also had to play their tournament on a neutral site unlike SB and Fla Gulf Coast other mid major champs. It should be a fun day! Good luck to the BearCats.

What is your reason for the Valpo and Vanderbilt inclusion?

I value advanced metrics a lot more. Especially predictive ones. Both rate very well in those categories. I want the best 68 teams to be selected in the least subjective way possible. Valpo has stumbled a bit down the stretch but are an elite defensive team.

 

[UCalum08]

Nts, I like your bracket. You need to get a job doing these numbers. You're very good at it!

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Final bracket projection. Let's see how I do! I put Monmouth in because I think the committee will slide them in (even though I don't agree), Temple got closer than I though. San Diego State is in because the teams below them just suck too much. I probably have Vandy and Saint Mary's too high.

1 SEEDS:
Kansas
North Carolina
Michigan State
Oregon

2 SEEDS:
Virginia
Villanova
Oklahoma
West Virginia


3 SEEDS:
Kentucky
Miami-FL
Xavier
Purdue

4 SEEDS:
Utah
Indiana
Iowa State
California

5 SEEDS:
Maryland
Texas A&M
Arizona
Duke


6 SEEDS:
Seton Hall
Baylor
Texas
Iowa

7 SEEDS:
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
St. Joe's
Connecticut

8 SEEDS:
Dayton
Wichita State
VCU
Gonzaga


9 SEEDS:
St. Mary's
Texas Tech
Providence
Cincinnati

10 SEEDS:
Oregon State
Colorado
Butler
Vanderbilt

11 SEEDS:
USC
St. Bonnies
Monmouth/Michigan
Pittsburgh/San Diego St

12 SEEDS:
Yale
Little Rock
Stephen F. Austin
South Dakota State


13 SEEDS:
UNC-Wilmington
Northern Iowa
Hawaii
Buffalo

14 SEEDS:
Iona
Stony Brook
Chattanooga
Middle Tennessee

15 SEEDS:
CSU-Bakersfield
Green Bay
Weber State
UNC-Asheville


16 SEEDS:
Florida Gulf Coast
Hampton
Austin Peay
Southern
Faireligh Dickinson
Holy Cross

Last 4 in: Pittsburgh, Michigan, San Diego State, Monmouth
First 4 out: Valpo, South Carolina, Syracuse, Temple
Next 3 out: Florida, Tulsa, Princeton [/QUOTE]

 

[jacobkdoyle]

How close is the gap between West Va and Kentucky? I was thinking 2 seed for Kentucky.

 

[mdchick]

Is cincy as a 9 seed an unbiased one?

 

[westsidecat]

Final bracket projection. Let's see how I do! I put Monmouth in because I think the committee will slide them in (even though I don't agree), Temple got closer than I though. San Diego State is in because the teams below them just suck too much. I probably have Vandy and Saint Mary's too high.

1 SEEDS:
Kansas
North Carolina
Michigan State
Oregon

2 SEEDS:
Virginia
Villanova
Oklahoma
West Virginia


3 SEEDS:
Kentucky
Miami-FL
Xavier
Purdue

4 SEEDS:
Utah
Indiana
Iowa State
California

5 SEEDS:
Maryland
Texas A&M
Arizona
Duke


6 SEEDS:
Seton Hall
Baylor
Texas
Iowa

7 SEEDS:
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
St. Joe's
Connecticut

8 SEEDS:
Dayton
Wichita State
VCU
Gonzaga


9 SEEDS:
St. Mary's
Texas Tech
Providence
Cincinnati

10 SEEDS:
Oregon State
Colorado
Butler
Vanderbilt

11 SEEDS:
USC
St. Bonnies
Monmouth/Michigan
Pittsburgh/San Diego St

12 SEEDS:
Yale
Little Rock
Stephen F. Austin
South Dakota State


13 SEEDS:
UNC-Wilmington
Northern Iowa
Hawaii
Buffalo

14 SEEDS:
Iona
Stony Brook
Chattanooga
Middle Tennessee

15 SEEDS:
CSU-Bakersfield
Green Bay
Weber State
UNC-Asheville


16 SEEDS:
Florida Gulf Coast
Hampton
Austin Peay
Southern
Faireligh Dickinson
Holy Cross

Last 4 in: Pittsburgh, Michigan, San Diego State, Monmouth
First 4 out: Valpo, South Carolina, Syracuse, Temple
Next 3 out: Florida, Tulsa, Princeton

[/QUOTE]


I'm curious to see how you do as well. Good luck.

 

[westsidecat]

How close is the gap between West Va and Kentucky? I was thinking 2 seed for Kentucky.

I'm thinking a 3 seed. Sec wasn't a very good league. But i think uk is hitting it's stride at the right time.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Is cincy as a 9 seed an unbiased one?

Every pick is unbiased. I change the last 4 in part a bit since those teams were fraction of a point away from each other in my calculation.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

How close is the gap between West Va and Kentucky? I was thinking 2 seed for Kentucky.

Pretty close. Looking at resumes, hard to take UK over WVU when Huggy's got 2 wins over Oklahoma (lost third at the buzzer) and a win over Kansas.

 

[UCalum08]

Pretty close. Looking at resumes, hard to take UK over WVU when Huggy's got 2 wins over Oklahoma (lost third at the buzzer) and a win over Kansas.

I hope WVU gets a 3 seed and we are a 10 and we play.

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

I hope WVU gets a 3 seed and we are a 10 and we play.

I hope you're right because a 10 and 3 seed can't play until at least the Sweet 16

 

[Bearcat_NTS]

Summary...

I correctly picked 64/68 teams.

I correctly picked 36 teams on the exact seed line.

I correctly picked 52/68 teams within 1 seed line.

I had St. Mary's, San Diego St, Monmouth and St. Bonnies in.

The committee clearly overvalued the mid-tier PAC 12. I had Colorado at 10 (was 8), USC at 11 (was 8), Oregon State at 10 (was 7). Yet somehow Arizona was only a 6? Still makes no sense to me.

I had Kentucky at 3 and Texas A&M at 5, somehow A&M got a 3 but Kentucky was a 4? Also makes no sense.

Terrible job by committee. They should have used my bracket...

 

[Bearcat513]

I will never understand Oregon State as a 7.