jacobkdoyle
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
- Messages
- 17,008
Another example...The Clemson/Alabama line was 6.5. It held steady. But the moneyline did not. It kept shrinking. Why would it move so much without the spread moving? If it's not about balance, wouldn't they just have a by the book moneyline for 6.5 spreads and keep it there? No need to fluctuate, right? No. It moved bc people weren't taking Clemson +6.5. They were taking the Clemson moneyline. They kept moving it bc they were trying to entice action on Alabama. If it wasn't about 2 way action, why would they care? And a better question, if it's not about 2 way action, what is it about? Vegas predicting scores? If that's the case, why would a line ever move? Wouldn't they just hold firm to what "they believe"? After all, it wouldn't be about the 2 way action. There's a reason why they don't do that, and it's the same reason they're on the other side of the counter. They have the vig, the gamblers don't. That's why bookmakers drive nice cars while even pro bettors have months where they struggle to pay the rent. The books don't get in the mud and gamble with the gamblers bc the vig ensures they don't have to. And they aren't going to make predictions then let the market correct them. They'll let the bettors correct each other based on perceived value. Again, the difference between being on one side of the counter or the other. One is gambling, and one is managing risk. In a general sense, it's that simple. Why? Bc one has every single game bet at +110, so they don't need to complicate it. It's not magic. A guy like Matthew Holt at CGT could tell you every lookahead line for the whole NFL season on Week 1. It's not bc he knows the scores. It bc all they have to do is create a baseline rating and make small week to week tweeks from there. And once it's set, any shift is strictly based on the action.
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